Prediction: Plug-In Electric Car Sales In North America Will Total 7.4 Million From 2015 To 2024

NOV 15 2015 BY STAFF 35

Nissan's New, Longer Range 2016 LEAF Turned Up For Test Drives At LA National Drive Electric Week, As Well As Chevrolet's Concept Bolt

Nissan’s New, Longer Range 2016 LEAF Turned Up For Test Drives At LA National Drive Electric Week, As Well As Chevrolet’s Concept Bolt

Navigant Research recently released a forward-looking report on plug-in electric vehicle sales in North America.

The report, titled “Light Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales in North America Are Expected to Total Nearly 7.4 Million from 2015 to 2024,” suggests exactly what the titles states:

“…light duty (LD) PEV sales in North America are expected to total nearly 7.4 million from 2015 to 2024.”

According to Navigant research analyst Scott Shepard:

“The increasing availability of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), or charging stations, is one factor that is helping to drive the PEV market in North America. Expansion of EVSE infrastructure to intra-city locations will make PEVs more attractive to drivers initially concerned about being unable to charge their vehicle during longer trips.”

Full press release below:

Light Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales in North America Are Expected to Total Nearly 7.4 Million from 2015 to 2024

Plug-in electric vehicle sales are mostly concentrated in states that offer generous government incentives for both drivers and automakers, report finds

A recent report from Navigant Research analyzes the North American market for light duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including detailed geographic forecasts of PEV sales by U.S. state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected U.S. utility service area.

North America is currently the world’s largest market for PEVs, with more than 133,000 sold in 2014, and the majority of vehicles concentrated in California. State incentives, such as the Zero Emissions Vehicle Program, are expected to push more widespread adoption into other U.S. states and throughout Canada, as well.  According to a recent report from Navigant Research, light duty (LD) PEV sales in North America are expected to total nearly 7.4 million from 2015 to 2024.

“The increasing availability of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), or charging stations, is one factor that is helping to drive the PEV market in North America,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “Expansion of EVSE infrastructure to intra-city locations will make PEVs more attractive to drivers initially concerned about being unable to charge their vehicle during longer trips.”

To date, PEV sales have been concentrated in areas where lucrative government incentives have been offered for both drivers and vehicle manufacturers, according to the report. In the United States, automakers are reaping incentive benefits from PEVs that comply with federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, and in turn are offering generous lease terms to drivers.
The report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities. The study estimates the number of vehicles that will be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario and geographic area, extend through 2024. The study also provides analysis of Navigant Research’s EV Consumer Survey, which was used to develop the PEV demographic profile. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

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35 Comments on "Prediction: Plug-In Electric Car Sales In North America Will Total 7.4 Million From 2015 To 2024"

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While sales should pick up with longer range cars and more EVSE, to get to 7.4M, gas prices need to rise and EV prices need to come down. Tax credits and other incentives won’t last.

Prices are very likely to come down. My experience with incentives comes from Solar incentives in MA, as soon as the 4000 incentive ended, solar prices went down by… $4000. Incentives are really a subsidy to the manufacturers.

I think it depends on how much margin is in the product. BEVs could be relatively high margin due to simplicity of the power train, but PHEVs still use an expensive ICE.

I don’t know about that, Three, or at least I don’t know about that for the next couple years. What costs more, going from 20 kWh to 60 kWh (40 additional kWh cost about 40 * $150 = $6000) or adding a genset and a gas tank? Ok, the PHEV’s aren’t quite that simple but for the medium run, I think PHEV’s will give a full utility BEV a run for their money when it comes to price. Plus the PHEV’s have the drive all day range that people have been conditioned to expect. And a 60 kWh pack will only get you around 200-210 miles of AER which isn’t exactly awe inspiring. To get to a real world 250-260 miles of AER you would need at least 72-75 kWh which would cost more like 52 * $150 = $7800. And that is at the insiders pricing GM will soon enjoy with LG Chem, which is probably contingent on GM buying all the other accessories that LG Chem is building for them at a profit. Now by 2019 or 2020 it may be a different story… Then I think PHEV’s will start to run into real problems competing with the… Read more »

“For the next couple of years” costs of batteries will go down quite a bit, as the factories, kilofactories, megafactories and gigafactories will grow like mushromms… According to Straubel, the cost will go down to 50%, this will be around 60-70$/kWh…
And who knows, some Chinese giant may announce a TeraFactory !
😉

Rex, that is true, but even if we see battery packs go down to $80 a kWh, a 70 kWh pack will still be $5600. Which is more than the cost of a gas engine and the accouterments needed to use gas. And gasoline may stay low for a couple years, God willing and the Straits of Hormuz stay open.
Unfortunately, now that we are moving away from coal, we do have cleaner air, but our electricity prices have gone up by 25% or more in most regions of the US over the past 3 or 4 years. Albeit not in the Pacific NW, not sure why… 😉
Electric cars are still cheaper to operate, but cheaper gas, more expensive electricity and higher fleet mpg are having an effect on electric car sales.
I think $60 a kWh is doable, but it won’t happen before 2020 at the earliest. Man, I remember when we were overjoyed when Dr. Patil said the Volt pack cost $625 per kWh. Pack prices are definitely headed in the right direction.

The good news is that the cost of electricity is still much lower and more stable than the cost of gasoline.

“The good news is that the cost of electricity is still much lower and more stable than the cost of gasoline.”

It is not true in terms of energy content.

A gallon of gasoline is about $2.50 to $2.80 right now.

US electricity rate is about $0.12/kWh.

EPA list 1 gallon of gasoline of having 33.7kWh of energy. That is $4.044/e-gallon.

So, electricity is signficantly more expensive than gasoline right now.

But EVs are far more efficient, that is why it works.

ModernMarvelFan, you are right that currently primary energy in form of gasoline is about 50% more expensive than electricity for a consumer but on the other hand, maybe only 15-20% of that primary energy actually goes to monving a car while an EV’s battery-to-wheels efficiency is at least a factor of 3 higher than that of an ICE vehicle. Supposedly also maintenance costs of an EV are lower than those of a conventional vehicle.

I’m sure the electric motor is not expensive at all, and it will last +3 times as the ICE.
The ~60-70$ price point I speak about is not for 2020, but 2017.
One thing for sure, electricity from solar will be cheaper and cheaper, while gas cannot stay low forever, as Pushmi said, the resource is more and more costly to obtain.

Did you know that Deep Water Horizon’s well head was at 5000 feet deep, and the well pierced the crust THIRTY-THOUSAND FEET BELOW THE GULF FLOOR?

Just imagine the pressure! Scupid human race!

“electricity prices have gone up by 25% or more in most regions of the US over the past 3 or 4 years.”

Electricity prices have gone down in N. Texas, from about 12 cents per KWh to around 8 cents per kWh. Not sure why. Maybe because of wind or because of deregulation, or both.

Will Danish prices for BEVs come down 20% in 2016,40% in 2017, 60% in 2018 all the way -80% for luxury BEVs.

In 2020 will Tesla pay Danes $80k to take a Model S?

The reality is a lot of roof top solar companies are going out of business if/when the federal credit ends and the few that survive will have to reduce prices but total sales will drop.

Actually it is quite the opposite.

Just have a look at the big titles, any day you choose…
http://solarlove.org/

In 5 years rooftop solar has grown nearly 450%

http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2015/08/solar-power-world-releases-2015-top-500-solar-contractors-list/

——————-

“We forecast that PV installations will reach 7.9 GWdc in 2015, up 27% over 2014. Growth will occur in all segments, but will be most rapid in the residential market.”

http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2015-q1

——————

“The report says 3 million new home rooftop solar installations could be installed over the next five years. ”

http://fortune.com/2015/06/09/solar-industry-shifting/

———————

The reality is that solar and wind power are on an exponential curve right now, and we need it badly to counteract the devastating effects of fossil fuels on the climate and health of all the living on our unique small planet.

The problem is that this solar exponential growth will not continue forever. There is too much money in the game. We had a really good development in germany when 15 years ago the renewable energy law was introduced (EEG) There have been many start ups, lots of jobs in the solar sector, many companies, lots of research… Although this is most likely not seen overseas, I think that this law has quite a lot to do with why development of solar cells was pushed that hard in the early days. The low module prices that we now have are a direct result of that brave step of the german goverment (in that time the green party was in coalitionary power…) I remember the headlines, something like “The world is laughing at us…” Yes, solar was expensive those days and we still pay for that, but I’m happy that we do, cause nowadays mean electricity prices are lower due to wind/solar capacity installed in germany. And this is the point where the big electricity comapnies come into play. They were forced by politicans to open the market. They were forced to make data available for the public. We can now see… Read more »

Thanks to German courage, bvut now the tide is a lot bigger and the installations are popping up like mushrooms in India, China, Brasil, England, USA etc..
There will be solar on every rooftop in a few decades, with cheap performant storage batteries. The landscape is changing for the best… I hope…

Yeah, the tide is bigger now and it is easy to jump along to surf an existing wave but thanks to Germans the wave got started. The technology has matured for decades and considering how well the Germans are doing economically now despite the price they paid for the transition, they got the timing quite right.

Interesting comparison, but one big difference is that the companies selling solar panels don’t also sell the status quo equivalent (eg coal fired power plants). Aside from Tesla, every EV on the market is sold by a company that might be perfectly happy to just keep selling 100’s of thousands of conventional vehicles if governments pull back on incentives and mandates and the selling price stops making sense for them.

That’s exactly the same thing that happened with hybrids. When the Ford Focus hybrid first came out it was selling for $35,000+. When the tax incentives ended for hybrids the price of the Focus dropped to below $30,000. The $7500 tax credit for BEVs ends in 2018. If the tax credit does not get extended I would expect the price of BEVs to go down.

It is kind of a catch 22. The more EV’s the less demand for gas. The less demand for gas the lower the price.

The lower the gas price the more ICEv owners buy gas.

When gas was $4.65 in Los Angeles people made a dash to subcompacts.

Now it is pickups,full size SUVs,and taking long road trips and camping trips in those trucks.

BEVs don’t have a measurable impact on the price of gasoline,yet. Hybrids and federally mandated fuel efficient engines across the board do have an impact. Who woulda thought that a 2.7 V6 would be so popular in the Ford F150 10 years ago?

M. St. J. said:

“It is kind of a catch 22. The more EV’s the less demand for gas. The less demand for gas the lower the price.”

It didn’t work that way with the switch from whale oil to kerosene. With whaling fleets exhausting the whales of one species, then the next, in seas successively farther and farther away from industrialized nations, the price of whale oil fluctuated wildly. We’re seeing the same thing with the petroleum industry, which is developing ways to exploit ever more marginal sources of petroleum. But as with whale oil, the long-term price of petroleum is ever increasing, as the average EROI (Energy Return On Investment) steadily goes down.

Whale oil consumers got tired of never knowing from one year to the next, or even one month to the next, what they’d be paying for whale oil. So when they did make the switch to kerosene, they weren’t likely to go back.

I think we’ll see the same trend with the switch from gasmobiles to EVs, and the fluctuating at-the-pump price of petrol and diesel will be a big part of what will drive the switchover.

The irony is that with global warming THEY induced, now there are more easy to reach oil fields in the northern seas. We must not let them! It’s time to ditch that poison once and for all!

What is this “we” must not let them? Pupu is right; pricing will kill oil, it’s just matter of time. In fact, I don’t mind them drilling if that results in less imported oil.

Imported oil inevitably include small amount of black market, and I suspect some of the bullets that killed Parisians were directly funded by gas pumps in US.

Any more oil is bad.
NATO and the Military-Industrial complex created ISIS… and Al-Qaeda for that matter. Just google “false-flag” to discover how far our dear governments/industries go to manipulate us.

Oh geez, not another freakin’ conspiracy theory. 🙁

LOL.

He is full of conspiracy theories.

Rex, you can find a conspiracy theorist/article to show just about anything, but the West/NATO didn’t “create” ISIS or Al-Qaeda and only a fool believes they did. Do some research.
al-Bagdadi was not a pawn of the West, he was a Sunni trying to use violence against the West, Shiites, and even other Sunnis to strengthen his group and bring on a new caliphate.

Suppose you ban all oil exploration in US. Do you think that’ll result in more or less imported oil. Corollary to that, do you think that’ll result in more or less black market oil from ISIS?

Fact is, the more domestic oil source we have, the less we get from black market that includes ISIS oil. Obviously, I want to pay as little as possible for imported oil, hence my SparkEV and Prius before it and Geo metro before it and so on.

But I’m not about to go and stop people from driving gas cars (or stop drilling) like some eco-terrorist. I educate people on cost savings and no-so-bad inconvenience with range using DCFC etc.

A lot of the post relate plugin sales to the price of gasoline. This relationship ignores the CAFE and CARB mandates. Manufacturers are required under these mandates to sale ever more fuel efficient vehicles and the only way the manufacturers are going to make fuel efficiency targets is with plugins and other zero emission vehicles.

Plug-In Electric Vehicle, PEV is yet another new term.
They are either BEV or PHEV, let us not mislead by combining the sales data.

As Navigants research says, “Expansion of EVSE infrastructure to intra-city locations will make PEVs more attractive to drivers initially concerned about being unable to charge their vehicle during longer trips.” Hopefully the network of fast chargers is developed with a couple important points in mind. Here is an email I sent to the newly formed Electric Vehicle Charging Association last week: Hi, I’ve just learned about you forming the Electric Vehicle Charging Association. Great news for a bright clean future! As an individual who is very interested in seeing a robust fast DC charging infrastructure in the future, I would like to make a couple suggestions that may be helpful in efforts to create future networks of fast chargers along main highways. First of all have at least 2 fast chargers installed per location to avoid an EV driver being stranded if a charger doesn’t work. Secondly, when preparing new locations for fast charger installation, do whatever is necessary to ensure enough grid connection capacity is installed to handle additional chargers that may need be added later, and to handle higher charging rates of 100 kW and more in the years to come. This will be essential for a fast… Read more »

Bl!nk was acquired by CarChargingGroup some time ago. You may wish to contact the president Andy Kinard. His email is Andy@CarCharging.com. I was the one contacted to test out the quick charge station at Bowmansville back in June. It didn’t work that day after driving 80 miles to get to it but i did find Andy and the engineer Victor very easy to talk to.
Ken in SJ.

Thanks Ken for the email address. I will email him too.

I’m not sure when but at some point there will be a tipping point. Perhaps even before 2020.

A sudden change in perception, where the masses start seeing gas vehicles as dirty, uncool, unreliable, slow and expensive compared to EVs.

If that happens soon enough than Navigant will have underestimated the total sales.

While fuel prices and battery technology will play a factor in future sales, what will really make the difference will be simply building the superior vehicle.

When more EV’s and PHEV’s come out that are simply all-around better vehicles than their gas competitors, then EV/PHEV sales will go more mass market than they are now.

The challenge now (based on this study) is to make that happen before the federal tax incentive sunsets.