Prediction – Electric Car Sales 22.4% Of Passenger Vehicles By 2025

MAY 18 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 42

A recent report predicts that EV sales could be up to 25 million by 2025.

Frost & Sullivan argue that, as soon as 2020, electric cars will reach price parity with traditional gas-powered cars and will no longer need government incentives to compete. Five years after that, EVs will make up 22.4 percent of total passenger vehicle sales, according to the firm’s industry manager for mobility, Prajyot Sathe.

Related: Porsche To Double Electrification Target – 50% Of Sales By 2025

Read Also: Volvo Says 50% Of Its Car Sales Will Be All-Electric By 2025

Currently, China leads globally in regards to EV sales with a 49.5 percent market share. Europe is next in line, but far off at 25.6 percent. With market share like this, global projections sit at 1.6 million EV sales this year alone.

The above figures already suggest that significant growth lies ahead. However, Frost & Sullivan look to upcoming solid-state batteries to accelerate adoption further. Aside from new battery chemistries, the firm offers up some advice to OEMs for expanding growth:

  1. Launch long-range battery electric vehicles with more than 200 miles in a single charge with DC charging systems;
  2. Acquire smaller companies that have established themselves in a specific market;
  3. Target $100/kWh price and invest in future battery chemistries such as solid-state and lithium/zinc air;
  4. Develop go-to-market strategies and product positioning through the SUV B-C-D segment, which has attractive and dedicated platforms;
  5. Transform dealerships to become customer-focused with brand ambassadors to improve customer experience; and
  6. Invest in smart and connected ecosystems such as car-as-a-service, battery leasing, residential batteries, and mobility services with regional customization.

Frost & Sullivan’s Sathe also made note of what he believes to be the biggest roadblock against electric vehicle adoption. Of course, it’s charging structure … but not just the lack of it, rather the fact that it’s not standard. He also believes that newfound investments from energy and gas companies stand to benefit the segment significantly:

“Lack of standardization is the biggest challenge for the electric vehicle charging infrastructure market along with high costs and low resale value. Currently, charging stations are prevalent in areas or regions where EV sales are the highest. Energy and petrochemical companies have started investing heavily in establishing electric vehicle charging stations as they are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the electric vehicle market.”

Source: Green Car Congress

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42 Comments on "Prediction – Electric Car Sales 22.4% Of Passenger Vehicles By 2025"

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Tony Seba says 100% by 2025, these guys are saying 22.5%. That’s a big spread. I think the cross over to EV will be very fast once price parity is hit. Difficult to predict exactly when that will be, between 5 to 10 years is my guess.

It will take time to scale regardless of demand. At 50% growth worldwide per year (which is the average in recent years) gets us to about 35% by 2025 and 100% by 2028.

Yes, it will take time. Car makers should be adding EVs as fast as possible, rather than trying so hard to block it. The problem is, that come 2020, ICE sales are going to be plummeting in a BIG way. By 2025, ICE will account for no more than 10% of all vehicles.

Pathetic numbers

Lots of predictions are in the ~10% region. Tony Seba is a hack. 22,5% is fairly optimistic but doable. A safer bet would be over 10% but under 20%.

Seba’s work over the past few years has been focused on technology disruptions so, I wouldn’t exactly consider him a hack. One important aspect of his projections that is usually overlooked in discussions like these, is the impact of Transport as a Service (TaaS) on the market for vehicles and fleet usage patterns. In a report he co-authored in 2017, “RethinkX: Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030”, Figure 9 on page 36 is a chart showing US car sales targeted at individual ownership falling to zero by 2024. At the same time they project that vehicle sales for use in the TaaS sector will have risen to about 5 million. If we assume plug in EV sales doubling every two years and that end of year figures for 2017 end up at 2 million globally, By 2020 plug in sales would be four million, by 2022 eight million, by 2024 sixteen million and by 2025 some 22.6 million. If you then project vehicle sales falling to 10% of the more than 80 million stated by ModernMarvelFan further down, you see how Seba comes up with EV sales being 100% of the market by 2025 since 22.6 is greater than 8 million by a… Read more »

Tony Seba is correct. 100% by 2025 at the latest.

I hope you are joking. If you are seriously believing that then it’s time to sign yourself into some kind of institution.

Not a chance of Seba being right but then he wouldn’t be speakingbroudn the world if he was saying 2035 or 2045.

It’s a supply problem. A battery supply problem and a legacy manufacturer problem. If you look at legacy manufacturer investment and their plans, they won’t be producing anywhere near 100%. I think so far the most ambitious is Volvo and they say 50% by 2025, next is VW with 25%.

If they don’t make them, we can’t buy them and In car model terms, 2025 isn’t that far away and it’s near enough to see that 100% simply isn’t possible.

100% BEV may not happen in our lifetime. Not all people live in cities and travel multi-lane highways lined with chargers.
Close to 100% electrified seems reasonable but not for 2025.

2725 earliest

In the interest of precision: how old are you? 😉

In Norway we’re already nearing close to price parity, but lots of people here are still blind to EV’s. Just about the equal number to those who are excited. It’s not about finance, charging structure, range or anything. They’re just not interested. I bet they will keep on buying ICE-cars until their dealers tell them they can’t have them anymore.

Coworkern has a screen background of a Mustang Shelby GT350R. It’s a $65k car. Nothing else interests him. I bring up EVs and awesome torque, but he just bemoans the lack of motor noise.

There are some people you will never convince. There will always be a niche of ICE buyers and people willing to build them.

That’s true. But time will forget about them. In 40 years there will be very few of those guys left walking the Earth. Their children,grandchildren and great grandchildren will be the ones buying cars or ridesharing or whatever. And they will have grown up in a very different world where their crazy old grandpappy likes old fashioned cars that smell and go vrooom.

Ok, so:
– there will be people to buy them – check
– there will be people willing to build them – check
– there will be people who can afford the niche price – mmm, not so check
– there will be governments that allow them – oh, most definitely no check

I am curious about when gas stations will start closing in Norway. Half the new cars are plugins, so daily commiting should already be gas free for half the new cars.

Once gas stations start closing, EVs could become more practical because you can charge them more places. If the little gas station in a remote town shuts down, then a gas car is nearly useless there…

The gas stations has been dropping in numbers in Norway for the last 50 years. From about 4500 to 1700. The last 25 years the transition to unmanned stations has grown to about a third of those.

Unmanned stations are cheap to run and cost a lot to tear down and sanitize so many will stay open much longer than any demand can justify.

Very few people live that far or not frequently visits a large enough town to have a station nearby for decades to come. Not having a station around will not be any kind of driving factor.

I respect TS. But his prediction is full of sh?!,

Pretty Much. His horse analogy is lame.

The restraint for EV growth is and always has been the advancement of battery technology, battery availability and battery costs. Solve these problems and EVs will take off. EVs are much simpler and easier to build than ICEVs.

BTW, the legacy car makers don’t care what they sell and they don’t give a hang about climate change and pollution. Their goal is to satisfy Wall Street…that’s how their CEOs think and how they keep their jobs.

There is a country called China.

Pathetic numbers also in China

Nope.
By end of 2020, new car sales in the west, and possibly china will be 20% or more EVs.
Some of you will note that EVs can not possibly get up to 20% of today’s numbers. True. That means that ICE sales will plummet and car makers will be pre-selling every EV that they make. And we are talking EVs, not the hybrid garbage.

You can say anything you want when you don’t need facts and reality…

There are just not enough capacity to support that unless we include PHEV as part of the EV numbers.

Although what you are saying would be great for the environment, it will be tough considering that there is not enough batter production on earth, or even planned to hit that level, that quickly.

Speaking as a card-carrying economist, I can say with absolute certainty that nearly all predictions of EVs having X% of the market by year Y will be wrong. (And people wonder why Harry Truman said, “God find me a one-handed economist.”) My hunch is that we’re primed for one hell of a tipping point effect in the US. EVs are just starting to gain traction in terms of capturing mainstream mindset. I’ve been joking to my wife since we bought our first Leaf in 3/2013 that I’ll know EVs have arrived when my neighbors feel compelled to tell me why they’re wonderful, and I have to break it to them that I’ve been driving one for years. ICE sales will plummet at some point, but so will the resale value of some/most ICE vehicles. People talk about the fossil fuel bubble (finally!) bursting. It will happen, but it will also have ramifications beyond gas stations and car showrooms. As I’ve pointed out before, walk into you local car parts franchise and look around at all the things they sell that literally don’t have a future in an EV world. We’re going to see a lot of unwinding in the next… Read more »

Really true,

But now I need a gas pump for my Van and a mechanic to replace it and none of that come cheap.
And no EV Van in sight that are financially available or practical.

Frost & Sullivan are being a little silly forecasting EV sales % 7 years in the future to three significant digits…22.4% LOL.

That said, their basic advice to auto manufacturers is spot-on. Using GM as an example:

Items 1 through 3: GM has largely achieved or has clearly stated their goal is to achieve.

Item 4: They have a strong long-term plan for all form-factor EV with their new EME1.0 platform, including B-C-D SUVs

Item 6: The Bolt AV project with Cruise Automation + Lyft shows they are already on car-as-a-service and mobility services.

But #5: “Transform dealerships to become customer-focused with brand ambassadors to improve customer experience”

This is where GM totally fails….engineering EVs is easy, but transforming entrenched dealer attitudes? This may be the toughest yet most important change they must make.

I predict 23.56%

@senna. I like your humor, no pun or sarcasm intended.

Pathetic numbers

I think 20% of global sales is a long shot, 15 might be more realistic (China being the Wild Card), I think the USA will lag at around12% in 2025.

CDAVIS Prediction – Electric Car Sales % Of Passenger Vehicles By 2025:

Global (Excluding China & India): 35%

USA & Canada: 45%

PHEV excluded?

I highly doubted it.

PHEV included? maybe. Will be back in 7 years for us to rag on you?

“Five years after that, EVs will make up 22.4 percent of total passenger vehicle sales, according to the firm’s industry manager for mobility, Prajyot Sathe.”

Only if EVs are including both PHEV and BEVs.

No way it can reach 22.4% by 2025. There are just NOT enough battery production capacity in the next 7 years to reach 22.4% of the global passenger vehicles if you exclude PHEV.

Global market is more than 80 millions vehicles per year. 22.4% is about 18 millions EVs.

That is about 30-36 Gigafactory amount of output at max output rate. There is no way we are on pace to build that many Gigafactory by 2025 and reach full volume.

If we include PHEV, then the math is more likely. If we have a split of 9 million PHEV and 9 million BEV (some with smaller battery such LEAF), then we would need 6-10 Gigafactory. That is possible to build in the next 7 years. Still aggressive, but possible.

At current battery production capacity planning, we will be lucky to have 1 new Giga factory output increased per year. That is good enough for about 1 million to 1.5 million BEVs or about 1 millions shorter range BEVs and about 2 million PHEV per gigafactory.

If it is BEV only, then we will be lucky to have 10% by 2025. It will be more like 5% by 2025.

But if it is PEVs that includes both PHEV and BEV, then it is possible to reach 15-20% by 2025.

Well the price of crude has doubled in the last 5 years, so people that are driving ice that get teens for gas mileage are going to be hurting a bit, to fill up that gas hog.
It will happen a lot faster than most people think, and more slowly than some believe.
I would say that in the developed world it will happen close to the schedule predicted, maybe 25% of new car sales will be evs by 2025, while S.A. India, Africa, will be slower to adopt, as their electricity production is spotty, and they are broke.

Wild card might be utilities waking up to the fact that, hey, a new customer base is developing – let’s help it along.

They already have, problem tends to be the state energy commissions.

Their prediction for 1.6 million EVs this year is too pessimistic. Last year 1.22 million were sold and so far (Q1), the market is increasing at about 50% year on year.

Global preliminary numbers in April state an 87% growth rate YoY, pulling the 2018 growth to 67%.

Demand is not the issue, but production.

If there are no big production constraints in these 7 years, then Frost & Sullivan prediction could be right, but until then, a lot of “pupu” can happen…