Prediction: 480,000 Plug-In Electric Vehicles To Be Sold Globally In 2015

APR 15 2015 BY STAFF 16

Nissan LEAFs

Nissan LEAFs

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEVs Lined Up In Montreal

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEVs Lined Up In Montreal

Analysts at Frost & Sullivan predicted that “over 480,000 EVs are expected be sold globally in 2015 with Europe and China projected as growth markets to watch out this year.”

Our own worldwide cumulative tally for calendar year 2014 came in at just over 320,000 plug-ins sold, so 480,000 would represent a 50% year-over-year increase.

Beyond that, the analysts forecast that the total number of electric cars on the road will “reach 10 million units by 2020 globally.”

Frost & Sullivan Program Manager, Anjan Hemanth Kumar, states:

“Vehicle manufacturers are not just under pressure to adopt green cars, but also need to find the right powertrain technology mix to bring down the fleet emission average.  Passenger car industry is pursuing advanced engine technologies such as downsizing, boosting, cylinder deactivation, advanced injection technologies and exhaust after treatment technologies. It is hard to find the right combination. On the other hand, electrification is a major trend witnessed globally from micro hybrids to battery and fuel cell vehicles.”

Let’s hope that major trend shows no signs of slowing over time.

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16 Comments on "Prediction: 480,000 Plug-In Electric Vehicles To Be Sold Globally In 2015"

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While it’s always great to see year-on-year growth of plug-in EV sales, let’s put that 480,000 sales prediction into perspective. Here is a list of the top few best-selling gas guzzlers for 2014:

Ford F-Series pickup: 753,851 units

Chevrolet Silverado pickup: 529,755 units

Ram 1500-3500 trucks: 439,789 units

Toyota Camry: 428,606 sales

I don’t expect to see dramatic growth in PEVs until 2017, when hopefully we’ll see some nominally “200 mile” PEVs cars go on sale. Until then, I fear we’ll have to settle for small advances in the EV revolution.

Nailed it…480,000 EVs is a drop in the bucket…but 5 years ago there wasn’t a drop.:)

0,55% of global sales is a bit more than just a drop. But still a far way from filling the bucket.

I think EV’s are the tip of a very big ice burg, everyone is looking at doing more with less.

IMO the world changed direction around 2008, people remember it for the GFC but a lot of graphs changed gradient or started to change around that time. Either a little bit before or a little bit after especially in the “west”.

I remember when they brought in the A-G emissions ratings for cars in the UK, it was a massive joke, 100g/CO2/km! no car in Britain on sale at the time was even close. Now every segment (including sports cars and SUV’s) has a few models well under 100g/CO2/km. Petrol/diesel use in the EU and US has seen negative growth, at times it bumps back up but overall we are on the downward slope.

0.5 million is a drop in isolation but if you look across the board at the averages they are all going down which I think is pretty impressive. I wish there was a massive jump but I suspect that we are going to see the gradual decline in CO2/km emissions per vehicle rather than an explosion of EV adoption all in one go.

Let’s celebrate the positive instead of pointing out the negative à la EagleAid.

Exponential growth.

Look at YoY growth %, that is important, not where in the new technology adoption cycle we are. Obviously we are still at the beginning.

At this rate, global plug-in car sales will go above 1% in 2017 already. Just a few years ago, industry insiders were predict that threshold to be crossed in ~2020. So in my book, we’re ahead of schedule. That’s the positive news.

still great news for the planet,10 years late ,but were in the right direction.

The US sales aren’t growing that fast, and neither is the EU, so I’m guessing the biggest increase in sales will be China?

Edit: Answered my own question by googling the rest of the press release:

“Europe and China projected as growth markets to watch out this year.”

Europe not growing fast?

Year on year increase:

January +142%
February +70%
March aprrox. +74%

First quarter (Jan-March) +88%

Good point. I was looking at absolute numbers compared to the 480,000 number, which didn’t look to me like the EU would be able to make up the difference. But I didn’t consider percent growth. You are right about percent growth.

To be frank, this wasn’t my best post ever. I got distracted in the middle. Thanks for the data.

Okey..=)

And in absolute numbers. Europe 150k, China 150k, the US 130k, Japan 30k Canada 5k.

That’s 465k

Rest of the world? Well 15k shouldn’t be too hard (it will be harder to find all the stats to confirm it :P).

480k seems to me to be pretty much spot on. But EV sales are very volatile still so we won’t know for sure until the year has ended.

Looks like the EU is finally experiencing the very high percentage year-on-year growth that the U.S. did 3-5 years ago. Unfortunately that has mostly tapered off. Is it too much to hope that the nominally “200 mile” EVs will hit the market about the time the EU sales surge would otherwise slow down (in 2017), so it will just keep going, and the U.S. will go into long-term exponential growth at the same time?

Hey, we can always hope!

The new Volt should provide a bit of a spike later in the year – should be a great car.

I’ll predict we do even better than that. The EV sales are starting to ride an acceleration curve. People see EVs on the road, hear about them, then go get one. Nobody lectures me anymore about how impractical the car is. Its hard to run off about how EVs are unworkable when there are 15 of them in your work parking lot.

The number of leafs here at my (fairly small company) about doubled in the last year. Admittedly an engineering company in Silicon Valley is going to have more interest than other company types. But in Silicon valley the population of EVs is exploding. The rest of the country is not going to be that far behind.

“I do not like those sloooooow cars!”

?
But tesla do 3.05 sec to 100km/h….

It ends discussion.

“I do not like those shrt rng cars!”

?
But tesla do 600km on single charge.

It ends discussion.

🙂

In 2017/2018 we will see this range on more affordable cars. After that ICEs will need to be defended! 😀

Once the new (and hopefully growing number of) Gigafactories come on line it’s game over… Batteries have been the stumbling block and rapid battery cost reductions have exceeded expectations by a wide margin.

This slow beginning has enabled refinement and the bredgth of manufacturing companies entering the market is massive…

As climate disruption threatens the future and people fall in love with these vehicles I predict a near total revamping of our transportation system faster than anyone’s contemplating.

Married to microgrids and rooftop solar, we might just be able to save our beautiful planet

I share your optimism.