Plug-In Hybrid Sales To Surpass Conventional Hybrids In Europe By 2019

MAY 9 2015 BY MARK KANE 15

Best selling plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids (Source: Automotive News)

Best selling plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids (Source: Automotive News)

Automotive News published an interesting article comparing plug-in hybrid and conventional hybrid car sales in Europe.

According to JATO Dynamics, last year sales of PHEVs hit 40,000, while HEVs reached 232,343.

The most popular PHEV models are the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Volvo V60 PHEV and BMW i3 with REx.

Especially the Outlander PHEV looks strong and would be on the podium even in conventional hybrid ranking.

Analyst firm LMC Automotive forecasts that plug-in hybrids soon (in 2019) will overtake hybrids before reaching 1.2 million in annual sales by 2024. One of the reasons is that a lot of new models to be launched will be PHEVs, not true with HEVs.

Powertrain analyst Al Bedwell told Automotive News Europe:

“The conventional hybrid market has stalled and the pipeline of new models is weak.”

Companies like Volvo are ramping-up their expectations. After initially assuming 5,000 XC90 PHEV annually, now they are planning 15,000.

On the other hand, Toyota, with 58% of Europe’s hybrid sales, doesn’t seem to be interested in plug-in hybrids (or all-electric).

According to Bedwell, hybrid prices are too high against potential fuel savings. On the other side, the even more expensive plug-in hybrids brings all-electric mode, which could be seen as “a true luxury characteristic” – worthy of buying.

Source: Automotive News

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15 Comments on "Plug-In Hybrid Sales To Surpass Conventional Hybrids In Europe By 2019"

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About time.. Now that there are no patent issues with the batteries (like the NiMh batteries in the Prius) there is absolutely no logical reason to build a standard hybrid these days. PHEV only costs a hair more to build and yet is a million times better.

Well, I can certainly recommend the Outlander PHEV, early days yet as only had it about a week but it will do around 30-32 miles on flat terrain but realistically around 26 miles on reasonably hilly roads driving very conservatively and no more than 50 mph on straight sections.

Eerily quiet in electric mode only, decent road holding for a two tonne vehicle and not much roll round corners.

So far so good. Have a 300 mile round trip on Monday to do so will be interesting to see what mpg I get.

PHEV’s will outsell traditional hybrids in 2017 in Europe.
2019 is a clear underestimation of the situation and what is happening. But I guess as usual it’s better to predict lower and then redact to the higher actual level, better safe than….right.

Meaningless, because Hybrid was never a big seller in Europe.

Why is that? I guess the bad tax policy on diesel is part of the reason.

In germany in april PHEV+EV combinded had already around the same numbers as HEVs.

YTD (April) Germany:
HEVs only: 6825
PHEV: 3171
BEV: 3057

Source: KBA.de

Hmm.

Is this analysis taking into account, proposed EU regulation?

With those new requirements for lowering CO2 emissions, both HEV and PHEV will see uptick. Current stall is just unrepresentative of what is to come.

Only if PHEVs will be able to provide better ROI car oems will choose those.

Few HEV’s get better mileage than traditional diesels here in Europe. So adding HEV models or promoting their sales would make little difference.

So almost any proposed HEV model would definitely come with a plug too. Or in other words traditional HEVs will more or less go away.
Replaced with plugins and mild hybrids.

Mikael said: “Few HEV’s get better mileage than traditional diesels here in Europe. So adding HEV models or promoting their sales would make little difference.” Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Much as I’d like to see the EV revolution accelerate, I suspect this shift has more to do with car makers — faced with stiffer carbon regulations — phasing out mild hybrids in favor of gas/diesel guzzlers powered by engines which are more fuel-efficient. That is, I suspect it’s not so much that the number of PHEVs sold per year is growing to the point it has a significant impact; it’s just that the mild hybrids are disappearing from the new car market. Mild hybrids generally didn’t have a MPG rating more than a handful of miles better than the straight gas/diesel guzzler version of the same car, so I say good riddance to ’em. Also, I think we are seeing the proliferation of “micro-hybrids”; that is, gas guzzlers with stop/start systems, sometimes also with a small amount of regenerative braking. How long will it be before there are very few new automobile models which are pure gas/diesel guzzlers? The category of plug-in EVs isn’t the only place… Read more »

I meant micro hybrids when I wrote it, just used the wrong term. 🙂

So micro hybridization on traditional ICE’s. Traditional hybrids going away. And PHEV’s booming.

And it won’t take long until almost all cars have some kind of small micro hybridization system. Start-stop is already almost on every new car here.

It’s the same situation in the states. Once consumers get a taste of driving in electric mode in a hybrid, next they want a plug. The only thing stopping most from skipping HEV and going right to PHEV has been the price.

And it is not even the price. It is the lack of knowledge about the incentives, the inability to do basic math, and the lack of understanding TCO.

Surely these become the same thing? Why make a hev not a phev with a small sub 10 kWh pack?

Exactly.