PHEV Sales Predicted to Grow By 80% Annually From Now Til 2018

JAN 14 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 22

For the Sake of This Prediction, The Volt Becomes a Plug In Hybrid

For the Sake of This Prediction, The Volt Becomes a Plug In Hybrid

It seems almost monthly we stumble upon some forward-looking prediction report put out by some research firm we’ve never heard of.

More Traditional Plug In Hybrid

More Traditional Plug In Hybrid

This is again the case here.

According to Transparency Market Research (who that is we don’t know) the plug-in vehicle segment is set to grow significantly over the next 4 years.

Transparency Market Research (TMR) states the following:

“Electric vehicles represent a quantum shift in traditional transportation system. Some of the major challenges faced by this market are high battery costs, availability of electricity, vehicle maintenance costs and new financial model for the electrical vehicles industry.”

We’re thinking TMR doesn’t quite have a grasp on the electric vehicle segment, but then again TMR wants us to pay like $4k for access to its full report, so they must be knowledgeable, right?

Okay, here’s what else TMR says:

“This industry is expected to grow at CAGR of more than 18% over the period of 2012-2018. Among all the major segments, plug-in HEVs segment of electrical vehicles industry will experience the maximum growth, registering a CAGR of more than 80% followed by the hybrid electric vehicles segment with a CAGR of 19% during 2012-2018.”

As for BEVs, TMR doesn’t mention them in the summary and we’re not about to fork over $4k for access to that information.

Source: Transparency Market Research

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22 Comments on "PHEV Sales Predicted to Grow By 80% Annually From Now Til 2018"

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a major challenge is the availability of electricity?
C’mon man!
fail.

Yeah, that and I dont know what they mean by maintenance costs. The less that ice runs the less there is to maintain. I got 20k on my all electric and its never been to the shop yet….

Actually this is true. Unless you are a homeowner, it is a problem. I have several friends who live in apartments and have no place to plug in their vehicle, thus they continue to use gasoline vehicles.

Sure, but only 17M (15%) of households rent apartments:
http://www.nmhc.org/Content.cfm?ItemNumber=55508

I bet it’s an even smaller share of new car buyers, who generally have more income than average.

Meaning public charging stations, public sockets, that kind of thing. Without infrastructure, people won’t buy as many.

My US growth number for 2014 is 35% and then 30% in 2015 for all plug ins.

Also, Jay, can you update the Tesla numbers in the monthly report?

Hey Bonaire,

Update in what way? Tesla said in Q3 that they expected to do slightly less than 6000 with a 50/50 split for US and International sales.

They “surprised” the market today by saying they hit 6900 deliveries for Q4, but not us…for Q4 we estimated them at 3500 for the US. Seems bang on the nose right now. We will just have to wait for the Q4 results to see if they kept to the splits.

Fun fact, our ‘worst’ estimate for US sales for the quarter was 200 units out (67ish/month)…which isn’t too shabby.

No way euro was 3400. Had to be more US sales. Unless you have inside info.

We have 3,850 confirmed registrations for 2013 (so far- a few stragglers still out there) outside North America.

Tesla reported they had delivered 1000 to Europe as of Sept 30 (as per their Q3 report, which was also their first quarter for deliveries into Europe), + we know 74 went to Canada in October and November + whatever was sold there in December.

That makes 2,924 for sure outside US, plus there is a couple countries to still come in, another 30-40 for Canada in December lets say, and all the weird Icelands of the world who have 8-15 deliveries.

But whatever it is – it’s no worries, we will square up our estimates, if need be, when there is hard numbers from the company, (=

Public infrastructure need is overly pessimistic imho. There are literally a hundred million suburban commuters with adequate private charging. You only need L1 for most PHEVs to be viable.

Well, PHEVs grew by 27% in 2013 (over 2017). That 80% doesn’t look right.

So you’re predicting that the market will be 27% smaller in 2017 than it was in 2013? 😉

27% in 2013 over 2012, not 2017.

I was thinking something similar. The Volt actually sold slightly less, and that is the current best selling model.

80% annually compounded seems extremely optimistic.

I see huge growth potential in the PHEV market for the short term, especially in the cheaper 20-mile range type of vehicle. They’re cheap enough (or will be cheap enough) that most people can afford them, save a ton of money on fuel, and have no compromise on lifestyle.

I think the $417 per kWh federal subsidy is enough to make the net cost of 30-50 mile PHEV no more than a 20-mile EV or even a regular hybrid.

It’s maddening how automakers are all using plugins as high end differentiation. All you need to turn a regular hybrid into a PHEV is a larger battery pack and a charger.

People were hacking their own plugin conversions with more range for a lower cost than automakers are charging. The $12k premium of the Fusion Energi was ludicrous, as was the 5 cubic feet of space gone for only 6.2 kWh of extra battery.

There are other considerations of cost besides just battery size. One of Ford’s strengths with their PHEV systems is that they didn’t have to redesign the entire car, thus saving a small fortune on development costs. Also they can share the same system across many cars and even have the option of putting different drive trains in the same model of car. Unfortunately, at this particular time it is very difficult to find room for a Chevy Volt sized battery pack in an existing design for a car. Much easier to find space for an Energi sized pack. I’m not saying Ford’s system is better. Far from it. But from a standpoint of being able to start converting a lot of existing hybrids and ICE cars over to PHEV, Ford’s approach makes the most sense until the market expands enough to invest more money in purpose-built vehicles. Oh.. And those conversion kits. I tried a few of them in a Prius back before the Leaf came out. They were extremely unreliable, often breaking every few weeks and needing some part replaced. Also they failed to give me what I really wanted, which was the ability to drive pure electric without… Read more »

Lower maintenance costs are an issue, for the dealers…

MrEnergyCzar

Domain registrar is in India. Web site shows their ‘corporate’ HQ as Albany NY. Veracity suspect imho. Anyone and their brother in Albany can make a web site.

80% ? – Should be faster, but the general population are slow learns, but it WILL happen.

Their website looks like it was setup by an 8th grade student as a tech project! http://www.transparencymarketresearch.com

This website is probably a scam, or scam light. They list coda as one ev company, of course many of their research reports are rather old, some dating back to 2011. Their testimonials are a hoot. I loved the report: some guy in NJ working in biotech. (name withheld due to privacy).