October 2018 U.S. Plug-In EV Sales Report Card


October U.S. plug-in EV sales will raise the bar once again.

***Jaguar I-Pace update: According to goodcarbadcar.net, Jaguar has delivered 5 I-Pace vehicles in the U.S. thus far, and apparently all in October. We have no way of validating this data, since the website seemingly uses our Tesla estimates without any link or verification, and doesn’t specify the fact that these are estimates. Instead, the website only clarifies that GM vehicles are estimated, while not including GM vehicles in its charts until the end of the quarter. It’s difficult to count on a publication that doesn’t clarify which data is estimated and which is not, on top of the fact that we know there are several estimates in their chart that have no supporting link. We will be reaching out to GCBC for an explanation of this issue. Nonetheless, since we rely heavily on estimates, it is what it is at this point.

Previous update information for background: Sadly, we have another automaker that doesn’t provide a sales chart. Jaguar-Land Rover simply reveals total sales with no breakdown of models. We know full well that at least I-Pace one was delivered in the U.S. thus far as part of a publicity stunt, since we published the story. Could there be more? We honestly have no clue and it’s unfortunate that as I-Pace sales develop, we’ll likely have no idea of the numbers going forward.

***BMW Update: BMW sold a told of 1,836 plug-ins EVs in the U.S this October, which is down 8.6 percent from last October. Our chart includes official reported numbers for the i3 and i8, however, we’ve estimated splits for all other models since BMW doesn’t provide them.

***Update #4: We’ve now added our Porsche, Audi, and Volvo estimates based on what we’ve discovered via various sources. Keep in mind that none of these automakers disclose information to us. Thankfully, none of them make up a large percentage of the overall monthly sales chart. Wouldn’t it be nice if these brands would just fess up and be transparent and forthcoming? Oh well, we’ve tried and failed on numerous occassions, so you’ll have to rely on our research.

***Mercedes-Benz update: We’re not surprised to share that Mercedes-Benz plug-in sales in the U.S. continue to plummet ridiculously. The German brand emailed us showing a whopping 37.1-percent decrease this month, with only 129 delvieries in October, aside from smart. While the automaker continues to refuse to give us official model splits, we’ve used the grand total to add estimates to our chart.

October 2018 will mark the 37th month of consecutive year-over-year monthly sales gains for plug-in vehicles.

Each month InsideEVs tracks all plug-in EV sales/deliveries for the United States by automaker. The 2018 calendar year has been the most fascinating thus far in the history of the segment and it only stands to get better. The year started with somewhat lackluster sales, but the momentum quickly shifted. Now, each month is almost sure to blow the roof off of the past. In fact, four of the five best-selling months of all time for electric vehicles have all happened this year. We have no doubt October will make the list and push December 2017 off.

How about a deep dive into our estimates and methodology?

Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):

  1. September 2018 – 44,589
  2. August 2018 – 36,380
  3. October 2018 – 34,085
  4. July 2018 – 29,514
  5. March 2018 – 26,373

As of the end of September 2018, an estimated 234,635 plug-in electric vehicles had been sold in the U.S. this year. We’re down to the final quarter before the year goes into the archives (and the record books). It’s looking as if we’ll see some 350k EVs delivered in the U.S. in 2018 by the time the year comes to an end.

Check Out: Contributor Josh Bryant’s 2018 yearly sales predictions here

Much of the success of that estimate depends on how many Model 3 vehicles Tesla delivers through the end of the year. Additionally, we have to ask ourselves if any other automakers are going to ramp up their efforts in this final quarter, or if numbers will remain relatively flat.

In October 2017, an estimated 14,315 plug-ins were sold in the U.S. This September we saw well over a 100-percent gain from last year’s numbers. Can October pull that off as well?  Will we see deliveries north of 28,000 this October? But, of course!

According to our research, Tesla’s overall U.S. numbers are down for the month of October, which was expected since Model S and Model X sales in the U.S. for the first month of the quarter are always significantly lower than other months. Still, it appears Tesla was able to show a substantial increase from last October’s S and X U.S. totals.

Additionally, in September we saw a monumental effort by Tesla to get as many Model 3 sedans as possible delivered since the automaker was working diligently to show a profit. For the month of October, the push wasn’t as significant. Keep in mind that many September deliveries were situatued very near the Fremont factory, whereas, October deliveries have been much more widespread. In addition, Tesla had plenty of help from owners in September, hosted a Model 3 sign and drive event, and pushed production numbers to new heights at certain points throughout the month. Finally, remember that some Model 3s are still going to Canada (perhaps as many as 1,000 are/were headed that direction in October). With all of this being said, while Model 3 delivieries were still kicking it in October, we won’t see that September number eclipsed … at least not during this reporting cycle.

Although we may add some incoming adjustments, our current data shows U.S. Tesla Model 3 deliveries at 17,750 for October, with Model S sales at 1,350 and Model X sales at 1,225. CEO Elon Musk just tweeted reminding us that early quarter production goes to the East Coast and overseas, which we already pointed out and accounted for as you can read above. We’re not quite sure if he’s saying that means our estimates are too high or too low. Interesting, nonetheess. Hopefully, we’ll have more information soon.

Since GM has decided to discontinue monthly sales reporting, we provide you with estimates each month and then reconcile (if needed) at the end of each quarter. We’re happy to report that our research has proven successful and our monthly numbers have been pretty solid

Based on our estimates, GM delivered 1,475 Volts and 2,075 Bolt EVs in October.

Nissan LEAF sales grew in August and escalated even further in September. However, October brings a downturn.

Nissan reports delivering a total of 1,234 LEAF vehicles this October.

The Toyota Prius Prime has made positive strides in the last few months, following a significant drop in sales in June and July. October …

According to Toyota, Prius Prime deliveries are in good shape for Octobert, at 2,001 for the month.

Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid hit a high point in May (1,639). It also pulled pretty promising numbers for June, July, and August (about ~1,500 for three consecutive months). However, September was the month that broke records for Honda’s new plug-in as it crossed the 2,000-mark for the first time.

For October, Honda officially sold 2,100 Clarity vehicles. Our estimates say that 1,935 of those were of the PHEV variety.

Keep yourself tuned in and refreshing the pages during the coming days as we put the numbers to the dialogue.

Questions entering October (with answers in italics as they come in)

  1. Will Tesla Model 3 U.S. deliveries rise again even though we’re at the beginning of a new quarter? (Not as far as we can tell. Our estimated October U.S. Model 3 delivery number currently sits at 17,750.)
  2. How significant of a drop in domestic Model S and Model X sales will we see due to overseas deliveries and the neverending Model 3 delivery ramp? (According to our estimates, Model S and X U.S. sales for the month are actually up significantly year-over-year, at 1,350 and 1,225, respectively.)
  3. Is October the month that Toyota Prius Prime deliveries bounce back even more convincingly after a few months of slow rise? (While Prime sales were promising for what has always been a low October, they’re still not impressive enough, at 2,001.)
  4. Now that the Chevrolet Volt has surpassed the Chevrolet Bolt EV for overall sales on the year, what story will the first month of a new quarter tell? (Bolt EV sales finally surpaseed that of the Volt, but numbers are still not where we’d like to see them – 1,475 and 2,075, respectively.)
  5. 2018 Nissan LEAF U.S. sales have been on the increase again. Will deliveries continue to improve as the year moves on? (Not so much. But 1,234 LEAFs sold in October is more solid than we expected for sure.)
  6. Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid sales have really impressed, especially in the last five months. Is October the month that it will pass the Chevrolet Bolt EV for U.S. sales on the year? (Nope! With Bolt EV sales up and Clarity PHEV sales down, it may take another month or so for the plug-in Clarity to surpass the Bolt EV.)

Also of note:

  • Toyota reports selling 119 Mirai Fuel Cell vehicles this October.
  • According to our estimates, Honda sold 49 Clarity FCEVs in October.
  • As far as we can tell, Jaguar has delivered one single I-Pace this far in the U.S.

Last update: November 5, 2018 @ 10:15 AM ET

*Keep in mind that we use the words sales and deliveries synonymously. In order for a car to count as SOLD, it has to be paid in full (or leased) and be in the possession of the consumer.

***InsideEVs’ journalist Wade Malone provided in-depth, detailed, and heavily researched sales estimations and related analysis.

Below Chart: An individual run-down of each vehicle’s monthly result and some analysis behind the numbers. (Previous year’s monthly results can be found on our fixed Scorecard page here)

2018 Monthly Sales Chart

Tesla Model 31875248538203750600059021425017800222501775095,882
Toyota Prius Prime 149620502922262629242237198420712213200122,524
Tesla Model S80011253375125015202750120026253750135019,745
Tesla Model X7009752825102514502550132527503975122518,800
Chevrolet Volt*7139831782132516751336147518252129147514,718
Chevrolet Bolt EV117714241774127511251083117512251549207513,882
Honda Clarity PHEV*5948811061104916391445144014952028193513,567
Nissan LEAF  1508951500117115761367114913151563123411,920
BMW 530e*2244136895187299425367497567336,289
Ford Fusion Energi6407947827427406045223964804536,153
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid**3754504804256507104506546376235,454
BMW i3 (BEV + REx)  3826239925034245804644184614245,271
BMWX5 xDrive 40e*2615966275634993214312642252244,011
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV3003233732732973903503663783093,359
Kia Niro PHEV*1552462271202182812253463133232,454
Audi A3 Sportback e-tron*1451992141892672382202402302102,152
Fiat 500e**  21023528521525022522075941001,909
Volvo XC60 PHEV*1091551671412142261852102151801,802
BMW 330e*1011422021661501381061921952291,621
Porsche Panamera E-Hybrid*12493362751681952002101701,606
Mercedes C350e*2917220815816617616517082751,401
Mini Countryman SE PHEV*127100741061632112101281401171,376
Hyundai IONIQ PHEV*2217821818021714318043111281,320
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV*9910693901261331151251201001,107
Kia Soul EV115163157152133571303318611,019
Honda Clarity BEV203104485237126120751221161,003
smart ED  8490103801101261031089895997
Porsche Cayenne S-E*113121197265591215456025912
Volkswagen e-Golf  178198164128763218321462902
Kia Optima PHEV*86103156142988390391751865
Mercedes GLE 550e*447018193837585904228791
Ford C-Max Energi2341421055718644120582
Ford Focus Electric  707313783885046740558
BMW i832394757644572675564542
Hyundai Sonata PHEV*5254783867626020155451
Mercedes GLC 350e*55759646660652720423
Volvo S90 T8 PHEV*27295229303530404535352
BMW 740e*18233160171640182545293
Hyundai IONIQ EV493607324735211221287
Cadillac CT6 PHEV*6241742301826231112209
Mercedes B250e  4049337300101134
Mercedes S550e*133119778108581
Jaguar I-Pace55
2018 U.S. Sales Totals12,04916,84526,37319,55624,31025,01929,51436,38044,58934,094268,729
2017 U.S. Sales Totals11,00412,37518,54213,36716,59617,04615,54016,51421,24214,31517,17826,107199,826
2018 Worldwide Sales*82,00081,000141,000128,450159,346157,933144,975172,400200,5001,267,604

Above – 2018 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Monthly or Quarterly Totals, ** Estimated (Based on State/Rebate Data and other reports). BEV models are designated with the icon.

Individual Plug-In Model Sales Recap For Major Models:

(Limited to vehicles with ~500 sales/or potential for 500 sales in a given month)

Nest Generation, 2016 Chevrolet Volt

2017 Chevrolet Volt

Chevrolet Volt:  

The Chevrolet Volt entering January 2017 found itself continuing an unfortunate streak of nine consecutive months of year-over-year losses. 2017 fourth-quarter sales alone were down some 3,000 units from the previous year.

January 2017 sales made it ten months of losses in a row, as 713 were sold, some 55.7% lower than the previous year (1,611). For February, the Volt continued its downturn with a total of 983 sold, which was 46% lower than 2016’s impressive 1,820. However, still up significantly from the previous month’s numbers.

It started to become more than obvious that the Volt’s stablemate, the Chevy Bolt EV, was stealing the Volt’s thunder. For as many months as the Volt was down and dropping, the Bolt was up and gaining. Keep in mind, this definitely wasn’t a bad thing, just different … and, in all honesty … better. It meant less gas burned!

Fast-forward to 2018 and GM sold a total of 1,782 Volts for the month of March, which was one of its more impressive showings in some time, but still down 16.4% from last year’s 2,132. However, this was a huge and welcome sales surge for the Volt.

As we previously explained, GM has decided to stop providing monthly sales figures. With that being said, we estimated April 2018 deliveries at 1,325, which was higher than may be expected. Keep in mind, however, that Volt production and inventory are on the rise. Our research for May suggested that our grasp of Volt inventory and sales estimations was on par. While down a touch year-over-year, the Volt impressed again, with 1,675 copies moved.

Official Volt sales from GM were right on target with our estimates at the end of Q2 2018. Chevrolet sold 4,336 Volts in Q2, for an estimated total of 1,336 for the month of June. While the quarterly total was down year-over-year, Volt deliveries are gaining ground as expected.

According to our estimates, Chevrolet sold 1,475 Volts in July and 1,825 Volts in August. To close out Q3, Volt sales were up nicely. According to our estimates and GM’s quarterly report, GM sold 2,129 in September.

For the month of October, we estimate that Chevrolet delivered 1,475 Volt plug-ins.



Chevrolet Bolt EV sales

Chevrolet Bolt EV

Chevrolet Bolt EV: 

The Chevrolet Bolt EV made its debut in December of 2016, as a 2017 model. However, it wasn’t technically available nationwide until August of 2017, but only a handful of copies landed in those 30-odd new states during that month.

That began to change in September 2017. More evenly spread inventory led to rapid Bolt EV sales growth, notching 2,632 sales during that month.

October 2017 brought 2,781 deliveries, but November took that number even higher, as 2,987 sales were made. For December, GM eclipsed the 3K threshold by moving 3,227 Chevrolet Bolts, finishing 2017 with a 10-month streak of sales gains.

Unfortunately, in January 2018 only 1,177 Bolts were delivered, which was a mere 1.3% gain over last January’s 1,162. For February, GM delivered 1,424 Bolt EVs, up 49.6% from last February’s 952 sold. Bringing Q1 to a close, GM sold 1,774 Bolt EVs in March, up 81.4% from last year’s 978.

Estimated Bolt EV sales for the month of April brought us back to some normalcy, and right on target with last year’s figures (1,292). We put GM’s BEV delivery number at 1,275 in April 2018. For May, our estimates showed 1,125 Bolts delivered.

For Q2, GM reported 3,483 Bolt EV deliveries, down ~20% from the same quarter last year. Based on our estimates, that was 1,083 for June.

Moving into July and a brand new quarter, we estimated that GM delivered a total of 1,175 Bolt EVs for the month. August estimates indicated that GM sold 1,225 Bolt EVs in August. As Q3 came to a close, Bolt EV sales were back up a bit, at 1,549 deliveries for September, based on GM’s quarterly total and our estimates.

Our October estimates put Chevrolet Bolt EV sales at 2,075.



Nissan LEAF sales

2018 Nissan LEAF

Nissan LEAF:

The Nissan LEAF entered February as the oldest offering on the U.S. market – going on almost 90 months now.

As you all know, it has been replaced by the updated 2018 Nissan LEAF, which debuted in September (full details here).

Is the new LEAF better?

Yes, in almost every way, including ~43 more miles range (up to 150 miles from 107) for $700 less. Not enough? A ~225 mile, higher performance trim level will arrive for the 2019 model year. To top it off, it will finally have active thermal management for the battery pack.

Sadly, Nissan USA proved not as capable as Nissan Japan, which managed to launch the new LEAF as planned in October (to some very impressive results), while the U.S. (and Europe) had to wait until January. This wouldn’t be a problem if the wind-down of the first-gen 2017 model wasn’t pre-planned to be defunct by October.

The resulting gap between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ left Nissan with almost no remaining inventory, which caused sales in October 2017 to drop to just 213 deliveries, ending an impressive eight-month run of four-digit results. In November, that number dropped further, to 175 sales. December — the best-selling month for EVs — saw only 102 LEAFs delivered. We’re pretty sure Nissan was wishing it had done things differently, as the LEAF closed out 2017 down some 20% overall.

2018 cars didn’t begin arriving until January 2018 in small numbers and they were pegged for reservation holders. Nissan told us it would be mid-February before another shipment of LEAFs became available at dealers for new buyers, which we figured would result in a sales bump, albeit small.

In January, Nissan delivered only 150 LEAFs, down 80.6% from last January’s 772. For February, sales increased to 895, which was hugely promising, only down ~14% from last year’s numbers. As a point of reference, last February, Nissan delivered over 1,000 LEAFs.

For March, Nissan began to dial it up and delivered 1,500 LEAFs, which is on par with numbers from March of 2017 (1,478). Sadly, LEAF sales didn’t grow as we had hoped for April, as Nissan moved 1,171 copies. However, fortunately, deliveries spiked in May, to a whopping 1,576.

Once again, June’s results were not as great as we’d hoped. Still, Nissan delivered 1,367 LEAFs, down about 9% from the previous June and also down from May’s 1,576.

In July, Nissan reported a total of 1,149 LEAFs sold in the U.S., down considerably from June and down about 10 percent year-over-year. Nissan delivered a total of 1,315 LEAFs in August, up significantly from July’s total, as well as that August 2017. We were happy to report another improvement for Nissan LEAF sales. The automaker sold an impressive 1,563 this September.

Nissan reports the sale of 1,234 LEAFs in the U.S. this October.


Toyota Prius Prime sales

2017 Toyota Prius Prime

Toyota Prius Prime: 

After 18 months of waiting for the first-generation Prius plug-in to be replaced, the Toyota Prius Prime (details) arrived on U.S. dealers lots over a year ago, and sales have been brisk ever since.

After setting a new high of 1,908 in May 2017, it was expected that with deeper inventory the Prime would be headed much higher.

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, and a ‘doubling’ of stock (to around 2,000 units), only resulted in 1,899 sales in September. An additional 50% gain in inventory for October (up to ~3,000) actually resulted in a lower number – 1,626 sales.

For November 2017, inventory levels stayed fairly strong, averaging slightly more than October, which translated into better sales, but still a relatively disappointing 1,834 deliveries, given the higher expectations for the year’s end.

For December, the Prime saw a record sales month, with 2,420 sold. This put the 2017 total at 20,936, landing Toyota’s plug-in the fourth place spot overall for the year as a whole.

Moving into 2018, Toyota delivered 1,496 Primes for the month of January, up 5.1% from last January’s figures. February Prius Prime numbers were super-impressive, with 2,050 sold, which was up a whopping 50.5% from last year’s monthly figures!

As 2018 moved on, it continued to get better, as Toyota sold 2,922 Prime plug-ins in March, up again from last year’s numbers by an impressive 74.1%. The total was also up significantly from February’s figures, making us pretty confident that the Prime would continue to rein No. 2 to the Tesla Model 3 for the foreseeable future.

Yes yes yes, Toyota’s popular plug-in continued to hold the number two spot on our chart, with 2,626 delivered in April and 2,924 in May. However, somewhat surprisingly, Toyota Prius Prime sales were down for June compared to the previous three months, at 2,237. Nonetheless, this number was up 45% year-over-year.

Heading into July 2018, we were not so happy to report that Toyota sold 1,984 Prime Plug-in models. Nearly 2,000 EVs in a month is still good, but that marked the second month in a row that Prime sales dropped. Good news arrived in August, although it could have been better, seeing Prius Prime sales on the way back up was promising. Toyota sold 2,071 copies in the U.S. in August and 2,213 in September.

For the month of October, Toyota delivered 2,001 Prime plug-ins. While not life-changing, this is impressive in a month where automotive sales tend to plummet.



BMW i3 sales

BMW i3

BMW i3: 

The BMW i3 entered the U.S. market with a bang in 2014, but it’s too bad that the initial fireworks display of sales back then was the peak – we just didn’t know it at the time.

For 2017, BMW i3 sales were a mixed bag.

Sales got off to a rough start, with just 182 moved in January, and 318 in February. The tune changed drastically in March (which given the i3’s track record is not all that surprising) with 703 sales made, a 118% gain over March of 2016. However, for several months after March, sales hovered around 500-600 units, until October when almost 700 were moved yet again.

For November…trashbags, as the company recalled all of its i3 vehicles due to a safety issue (for people who chose to NOT wear their seat belts if you can believe that) and put a ‘stop sale’ on the model for a time.  Just 283 i3 vehicles were sold during a month that is historically one of the best in terms of EV sales.

Quite frankly (and notwithstanding this recall), the i3 as it stands today is likely too expensive for plug-in vehicle buyers. So, if BMW wants to sell the EV in volumes like it did in the past, it’s going to have to sharpen its pencil considerably.

In late August 2017, BMW proved it still really didn’t understand the issue behind lackluster sales or the i3 itself, by releasing a new, slightly sportier trim level – the i3s (full details here). The car received some new styling details, some wider tires and some extra performance (+10 kW), but what the public really seemed to want was a longer range option and a price cut (the new i3s is ~10% more expensive in most markets).

2018 models began to be delivered in December and i3 sales accelerated from November’s totals considerably. The German luxury automaker delivered more than double the previous month’s total, at 672 to close out 2017 with 6,726 sold.

For January, BMW delivered 382 i3s, which was exactly the same number as last January. February brought a 96% bump in i3 sales from the same month last year, with 623 sold.

It looked like the i3 was going to start gaining interest once again. We saw two consecutive months of excellent sales growth. BMW sold an impressive 992 copies in March, which was the best showing for the car since August of 2016. This was up 41.1% from last year’s 703, and a big bump from February’s 623.

Unfortunately, the jump in interest may have been short-lived, as April saw 503 copies moved and May sales dropped to 424. For June, BMW i3 sales were back up a touch, as well as up 2.3% year-over-year, with 580 delivered.

BMW i3 sales were back down in July, at 464 delivered. This was also down 23 percent year-over-year. For August, BMW reported sales of 418 i3 vehicles, down again from July, and the second-lowest delivery number for 2018 thus far. BMW reported 461 i3 sales for September.

BMW sold 424 i3 vehicles this October.



Tesla Model S sales

2014 Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S: 

Tesla doesn’t give out exact monthly sales (apparently because the public can’t handle the concept of regional allocations and delivery lead times). For this reason, we never know for sure what the monthly numbers total up to until Tesla’s quarterly (or annual) updates add more clarity. However, we do our best to keep our finger on the pulse of what’s happening.

To come to an estimated monthly number, we don’t simply take the quarterly estimate given by Tesla and divide it by 3 and hope it all works out. This is surely not how it works in the real world. We simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, including first-hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself, and the number is what it is (see below).

Revisions/disclaimer to the accuracy of prior estimates: The 2016 Model S chart has been adjusted (via U.S. Q3 data leaked directly from Tesla) by 469 units in Q3, and 525 units in Q4. The 2015 chart was adjusted (one time) by 498 units to compensate for confirmed full-year numbers. The 2014 sales chart was adjusted (one time – again after the end of the full year of estimates) 611 units to compensate for full-year numbers. While past success is no guarantee of future results, InsideEVs is quite proud of its sales tracking for the Model S over the years.

That being said, we only estimate this number because Tesla does not report it, and to not put a number on Model S sales would be to paint an even more inaccurate overall picture of EV sales. Despite our fairly accurate track record, we’re not analysts or portfolio managers and we don’t own any positions in TSLA the company.

While Tesla continues to conform to a familiar quarterly pattern of prioritizing international production early in the quarter before transitioning to domestic output, there has been somewhat of a change/reshuffling of priorities as of late.

The name of that priority is Model 3.

As we mentioned in 2017, it appeared Tesla knew fairly early that volume production would not be close to guidance by the end of Q3, and quickly refocused in an attempt to make that a reality by the end of Q4 (investors need to be kept happy we suppose).

The end result is that production energies and skilled labor normally assigned to Tesla’s original EVs were diverted from the Model S and X to getting the Model 3 back on course. Tesla seems to be more focused on net sales than setting a specific S and X target, but international deliveries also play a role. All-in-all, we may see Model S and X sales flat or even lower over the course of 2018.

Additionally, the automaker recently pushed back Model S and X delivery timelines by several months. It was said that this was due to a spike in orders for the vehicles, likely due to the attention Tesla is getting from the Model 3, and also because many people are having to wait so long for their Model 3, so they’ve opted for an S or X instead.

With all of this considered, it’s becoming increasingly clear Tesla is picking and choosing how it will skillfully hit its delivery targets. This means that sales figures for the Model S for December 2017 and January 2018 were down from the previous year’s numbers.

We estimated January Model S sales at 800. February’s estimate came in a bit higher, at 1,125, although this was still a notable drop from last year’s 1,750. March sales mirrored 2017 as expected, at 3,375, to round out the quarter fairly close to targets.

As stated above, the automaker has made it increasingly clear that S and X sales will likely match last year’s targets, remaining pretty flat for 2018 due to the Model 3 focus. April saw an estimated 1,250 Model S deliveries, which was up marginally, though pretty consistent with last April’s 1,125. May saw an estimated total of 1,520 Model S sedans delivered in the U.S. For June, our research indicated that Tesla delivered 2,750 Model S vehicles to the U.S. market.

Our estimates revealed that Tesla delivered 1,200 Model S sedans in July, compared to last year’s 1,425. Tesla delivered 2,625 Model S sedans in the U.S. in August based on our estimated data. In September, our estimates showed that Tesla was able to keep Model S sales up despite the impact of the Model 3. We reported 3,750 Model S deliveries in the U.S. for September.

Our research puts Tesla Model S sales at 1,350 for October.



Tesla Model X sales

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X: 

Like the Model S, Tesla does not report Model X sales, so we do our best to estimate monthly results for the U.S. using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our disclaimer for the Model S)

Historical accuracy/Sales Update (Oct 11th):

Tesla’s leaked U.S. sales data for Q3 2016 put U.S. deliveries at 5,428. Our own Q3 estimate was 5,800 for North America, which includes Canada (which ended Q3 with 389 registrations for the quarter), meaning 5,787 were actually sold. Though we don’t attest to being experts, we were only off by 13 units in Q3.

Previously in Q2 2016, Tesla reported 4,625 Model X deliveries. Our estimated scorecard got within about ~55 units of the actual number (accounting for just a handful of international Model X deliveries). In Q1 we were within ~200 units.

Since we don’t want to bore you by explaining the same thing twice, have a look at the Tesla Model S recap (above) and then come back here.

All done? Good … welcome back.

Like the Model S, Model X production has been sacrificed as Tesla attempts to prove itself more capable of building the Model 3. Tesla directed to some 10% less production of the Model S & X in Q4 of 2017. Keep in mind, however, that all cars and regions are not created equal.

Aside from lower sales volume due to the Model 3, for the months of December and January, Model X sales seemed to be business as usual (despite the long-winded explanation above). In December 2017, we estimated that Tesla moved 3,330 electric SUVs compared to the 3,875 sold in the same month of 2016. We estimated January 2018 Model X sales at 700, down a touch from last year’s 750.

Our estimates for February put Model X deliveries at 875 (to reconcile the quarter, we’ve bumped this number up to 975), up a fair amount from January’s estimates, as well as February 2017 numbers (of course, last February, Model X production was somewhat limited, as our estimates show the automaker delivered 800 during that month). For March, sales were consistent with 2017, at 2,825, to finish the quarter fairly close to targets.

Last year, April Model X sales were quite low, much like that of January and February. However, it should be noted that as 2017 moved forward, the X began to rise in popularity and did a better job of mirroring sales with the Model S. We are seeing the same trend in 2018.  While it appeared Tesla still sold more S’ vehicles in the U.S. again this April, the divide was more closely matched. We estimated 1,025 Model X SUVs delivered this April and 1,450 in May. According to our data collection, as Q2 came to a close, Tesla delivered an estimated 2,550 Model X SUVs in June 2018.

According to our data collection, Model X deliveries in July reached a total of 1,325. Last year, Tesla sold 1,650. Model X deliveries in the U.S. surely impressed in August according to our estimates, as Tesla sold a whopping 2,750. Tesla Model X U.S. sales for September blew last year’s number out of the water, at 3,975 based on our estimates.

With all things considered, we estimate October Model X sales at 1,225 for the U.S.



Tesla Model 3 sales

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3: 

Just ~16 months after orders opened, and ~10 years since it was first announced (then known as the “Bluestar”), the first Model 3s were delivered on July 28, 2017! One can check out the full delivery ceremony and all the newly released specs (220-310 miles range, 0-60 mph in 5.1-5.6 seconds) on our full recap here.

As with Model S & X sales, Tesla is not planning to release monthly Model 3 sales in the U.S. at this point in time. Until then, we’ll do our best to estimate monthly results for North America using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our Model S disclaimer).

Historical accuracy/Sales Update (Nov 1st):  Q3 2017 sales of the Model 3 were adjusted up 2 units.

Thankfully, in the early days (Q3 2017), estimating Model 3 sales in the U.S. was a pretty easy task, as the complete delivery volume for July took place live at the July 28th delivery event in Fremont, California. The first 30 cars were delivered to Tesla employees/stakeholders in the U.S., and one could almost count the individual cars as they left Tesla’s Fremont factory in August.

For September, we had Tesla’s quarterly disclosure that put deliveries at 222 cumulatively for the quarter, meaning about 117 were delivered.  Truthfully, the monthly numbers were meaningless in Q3. Instead, all eyes were on production. While the company guided to some 1,630+ to be produced, just 260 were built.

Of course, much chatter arose as to why. Tesla generically blamed “production bottlenecks.”  The company, looking to re-assure, said at the time:

We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.

From our perspective, Tesla realized fairly early in July that the September goals would not be met. Following the future ‘S-Curve’ goal into year’s end was going to be problematic. It appears from that moment on, rather than working on “near-term” production and deliveries, Tesla has been working more proactively with the main goal of simply being able to show volume production by year’s end – something originally targeted for the end of September.

While this thought process was never officially confirmed by the company, a quasi-confirmation came with the admission that Model S and X production would be off 10% in Q4 2017. Additionally, we saw the effects of manpower being transferred into transitioning the Model 3 production from “burst” output (or start and stop if you will) to a more consistent, ordered structure.

While it was only speculation on our part (as it was for several months while watching the happenings around the car), we believed Tesla was desperate to provide confirmation of a “decent” sustained production level for the Model 3 by the close of the year … and we were right.

To that end, progress to a certain degree was definitely made in November, as more cars than ever did actually find employee driveways (and orders also opened to the public mid-month … well at least to the first batch of locals anyway). Though Tesla only delivered an estimated 345 Model 3s in November, this number was a notable jump from prior months.

Tesla publicly reported delivering 1,060 Model 3s in December, for a grand total of 1,772 on for 2017. Additionally, Tesla dialed down the target of 5K a week, to 2.5K now, and set the 5K production level back to June.

Adding up all Tesla vehicles delivered in the U.S. in 2017 brought us to an estimated 50,147. Global deliveries passed the 100K mark for the year as a whole (~103,000), making 2017 Tesla’s best year to date, despite Model 3 shortfalls.

While Model S and X sales were both down a handful for January based on our estimations, Model 3 sales were up again compared to last December’s numbers (one would sure hope so!) However, they weren’t up as high as projected or expected.

We estimated January Model 3 sales at 1,875. Basically, we took the 860 vehicles in transit in December, plus the ~500 vehicles produced in each of the first two weeks of January (and those 15 extra vehicles from December that Tesla assured were ready to go but not yet scheduled for delivery), and projected that the automaker was able to successfully deliver these cars prior to the close of the month. This makes sense since Tesla was still looking at three to six weeks for the entire process to unfold.

For February, we assumed that most of the remainder of the Model 3s manufactured in January made their way into owners’ driveways. Added to this, we gather that some early February production was delivered prior to the 28th of the month. We should also point out that an anonymous source with close ties to Model 3 production made us aware that the line was down for as much as a week at a time over the course of the prior month or so due to timing issues with the robots. This was later verified by the automaker. Our February Model 3 delivery estimate was 2,485.

As expected, Tesla dialed up Model 3 production for March considerably, and according to the automaker’s Q1 sales report, future prospects were looking up. You can read the whole report by clicking here. Tesla delivered a grand total of 8,180 Model 3 sedans for Q1 2018, with March sales at an impressive 3,820.

One less day in April, similar production numbers in comparison to March, and a brief shut down meant that April’s Tesla Model 3 deliveries remained very consistent with the previous month. Knowing that fixes had been made in Fremont and the Gigafactory, we looked forward to a surge for May, followed by a leap in June to end Q2. Still, our Model 3 April delivery estimate of 3,750 was impressive considering the circumstances, and there was no doubt the popular electric sedan would continue to dominate our sales chart.

Tesla has successfully ramped up Model 3 production considerably as of late. Despite the shutdown, our estimates show that the month of May was a huge gain from prior months. According to our research and data collection, we saw May’s Model 3 deliveries at 6,000. During the month of June, Tesla ramped up Model 3 production even further, resulting in our delivery estimate of 8,300, which was supported by Tesla’s delivery report. However, we discovered that at least 2,300 of those made their way into Canada, while an estimated 5,902 were delivered in the U.S.

Disclaimer/Historical accuracy: We’ve adjusted Tesla Model 3 delivery estimates down ~3% for Q2 2018 due to new information confirming deliveries to Canada, which was previously unavailable (August 10, 2018).

Tesla delivered a whopping 14,250 Model 3 sedans in the U.S. this July, according to our researched estimates. As if that wasn’t good enough, an estimated 17,800 Tesla Model 3 sedans were delivered in August. According to our estimates, Tesla delivered 22,250 Model 3 sedans in the U.S. in September.

Our estimated October U.S. Model 3 delivery number currently sits at 17,750.



Chrysler Pacific Hybrid (plug-in) sales

Chrysler Pacific Hybrid (plug-in)

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid: 

Editor’s note:  FCA does not split out sales data for the plug-in Pacifica, so we try our best to estimate that number from month-to-month until hard/verifiable data is gleaned.

The much-anticipated plug-in extended range passenger van arrived in January of 2017, albeit in stealth, stuttered, and very limited in fashion.

Due to some odd quirks with production timing and plant scheduling, we had an on/off/on/off/quasi-on start for the Pacifica Hybrid as it relates to deliveries. Then there was QC holds, then launch delays.

Finally, the Pacifica Hybrid officially arrived on “Earth Day” April 22, 2017, and customers enjoyed a good three to four weeks of arriving inventory … until the wheels fell off (not literally).

By June 10, 2017, a nationwide recall was announced, and all 1,677 Pacificas sold in the U.S. and Canada had to head back to Chrysler to get a faulty diode replaced that could cause loss of power when in operation. We won’t get into all the details from there (check out our June 2017 sales report for more info).

Thankfully, by September, the kinks appeared to have been worked out just in time to see its Windsor, Ontario assembly plant go down for the entire month of October for pre-scheduled updating of the facility to comply with U.S. regulatory/safety tooling on the Grand Caravan.

Nonetheless, customer orders and dealer stock began flowing once again and the 2018 model has arrived. With January being a low-volume month, we put Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid sales estimates at 375. For February, we estimated Chrysler delivered 450 Pacifica Hybrids. Our March estimate saw 480 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrids delivered.

After three months below 500 sales, the Pacifica Hybrid was set to lose its spot in our recaps. However, we’ve kept it around for now in case the rest of the year begins to show promise. While April’s numbers  (425) didn’t help its case, our May estimations showed Chrysler moved some 650 Pacifica Hybrids and  June remained mostly consistent with May’s findings, at 710 deliveries on the month.

This July, we estimated Pacifica Hybrid sales back down again, at 450. However, our estimates for August show that Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan deliveries climbed significantly, to 654. Our estimates reveal that Chrysler delivered 637 Pacifica Hybrids in September.

In October, Chrysler sold 623, based on our research and data.



Ford Fusion Energi sales

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford Fusion Energi: 

The refreshed 2017 Ford Fusion Energi (details) was a fairly big hit in 2016, showing marked improvements throughout the year.

Heading into 2017, the Fusion Energi crossed back into “four-digit land” in March, as 1,002 Energis were moved … joining a club of just five others at that level. The month of May showed a repeat of such numbers, but sales have stayed in the 700s ever since.

Looking at the inventory in the past, it was easy to see why (and how) so many of the Fusion plug-ins were initially sold. The Fusion Energi often won the crown for the “most stocked” EV in the U.S., until Chevy got crazy with the Volt and Bolt EV.

With that said, Ford began struggling to keep production on pace with demand (or rather managing inventory lower). After having almost 3,000 in stock in mid-June 2017, that number fell below 2,000 units by the start of September, as the industry-wide summer shutdown/changeover to MY 2018 was underway. This inventory level flatlined through the end of 2017, for 9,632 deliveries.

It seems the story has remained that same as 700 is the new magic figure for Ford’s midsize plug-in. May came in right on target for the Fusion Energi, at 740 sales. However, the automaker only delivered 604 Fusion Energis in June.

Fusion Energi sales dropped again in July, to 522 delivered. It seemed Fusion Energi sales were slowly dying away. The magic number of ~700 was no longer consistent. To add to the bad news, Ford reported deliveries of only 396 midsize plug-ins for August. Ford sold 480 Fusion Energis in September, still not back up to the 700 or so we were hoping for.

Ford reports the sale of 453 Fusion Energis this October.



BMW 530e sales

2018 BMW 530e

BMW 530e: 

Welcome to the “big time” BMW 5 Series! By “big time” we mean selling more than 500 copies and getting an individual recap on our sales scorecard.

The plug-in hybrid’s $52,400 starting price point makes it the cheapest of the 5 Series to own, and thus a strong seller. After crossing 500 sales in both September and October of 2017, an amazing 872 were moved in November, followed by 706 in December – shooting the plug-in BMW up our sales chart.

For 2018, 530e sales have been mostly rising, aside from a small drop in April. In May, BMW sold an impressive 729 530es. This was up considerably from 2018’s previous numbers, aside from a good showing at the end of Q1. June revealed another spike in deliveries, to 942, which was an all-time high for the plug-in 5 Series!

Our estimates revealed that BMW moved 536 5 Series plug-ins in July 2018, which was down from the previous few months, but still right on target with expectations. In August, our research proved some forward momentum, as we estimated that BMW delivered 749 5 Series plug-ins. Our estimates indicated that BMW delivered 756 530e vehicles in September.

BMW sold and estimated 733 5 Series plug-ins this October.


BMW X5 xDrive40e sales

x5 xDrive40e

BMW X5 xDrive40e: 

The BMW X5 plug-in had an unexpectedly strong debut in the U.S. in 2016, which only got stronger over the year. In fact, the electrified BMW SUV had seen sales as high as 876 units in 2016 (August 2016).

Then 2017 happened, and sales disappointed. During the first 10 months, numbers ranged from the 260s to the 480s.

With just 329 sales in October 2017 and 333 in September, we confidently predicted the X5 plug-in would be leaving our recap list in 2018 … then came November. The month brought an all-time best 929 deliveries, which made the BMW the sixth best selling plug-in for the November! In December, sales were down, but still strong at 832, pushing the X5 just out of the top ten for the year as a whole.

While inventory is still low, we’re happy to be able to report that the 2018s are here in volume. Hopefully, enough plug-in SUVs will eventually arrive that BMW can once again make a push to achieve the four-digit mark!

Sadly, it hasn’t happened yet, as May saw 499 BMW X5 plug-ins delivered. Down a touch, but mostly on par with previous sales data. The automaker sold 321 X5 plug-ins in June.

According to our research, BMW delivered an estimated 431 X5 plug-ins for the month of July. This was up considerably from June’s results, but still consistent with trends. However, August estimates showed a drop, as our data revealed that BMW sold an estimated 264 X5 plug-ins on the month. Based on our estimates, BMW sold 225 X5 plug-ins in September.

Based on our estimates, BMW delivered 224 X5 plug-ins in the U.S. in October.


Honda Clarity PHEV

Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid: 

The Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid arrived in November of 2017. Only five copies were sold that first month, followed by an incredible 898 in December. At that point, we were going to add the new plug-in to our recaps, but we decided to give it a few months to settle in.

January deliveries fell to 594, however, that’s still outstanding for a new addition to the segment during a weak sales month. February brought a nice surge back up to 881 sold, pushing the Clarity PHEV within reach of the best-selling vehicles in the segment.

Now, the Clarity PHEV finds a new home in our recaps, and it’s obvious it earned it well. The addition of the Clarity was much-needed, as it comes at a time that we have recently eliminated the Volkswagen e-Golf, Audi A3 Sportback e-tron, Ford C-Max Energi, and Fiat 500e due to not meeting the sales threshold.

The Clarity PHEV starts at $33,400 before rebates. It’s powered by 1.5-liter four-cylinder engine and two electric motors, with a total system output of 212 horsepower and 232 pound-feet of torque. The Clarity boasts a 47-mile EPA all-electric driving range, making it the closest PHEV all-electric range competitor to the Chevy Volt. Charging takes 2.5 hours with 240-volt power or about 12 hours on a 120-volt household outlet.

For May, Honda moved 1,639 Clarity PHEVs. The automaker sold a total of 1,445 Clarity PHEVs in June.

Honda sold 1,615 Clarity models in July. The automaker doesn’t provide a breakdown between BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs, but according to our estimates, some 1,440 of these cars were likely of the plug-in hybrid variety. In August, Honda reported a total of 1,689 Clarity vehicles sold. Our research showed that some 1,495 Clarity Plug-In Hybrids were delivered for the month. Honda sold a whopping 2,220 Clarity models in September. Based on our estimated splits, the automaker delivered a record 2,028 Clarity PHEVs for September.

As far as Honda’s official delivery report is concerned, the automaker delivered a total of 2,100 Clarity vehicles in October. Our estimates say that 1,935 of those were of the PHEV variety.

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140 Comments on "October 2018 U.S. Plug-In EV Sales Report Card"

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Maybe you folks who frequent this forum can help me. I’m interested in getting a decent used EV for less than $10,000. It seems I have my choice of four vehicles. the Leaf, the Spark, the Fiat 500, and the Kia Soul.

All other things being equal regarding mileage and age of the vehicles, which way should I go? I’m leaning towards the 500.

@Jeffrey Spaulding said: “…I’m interested in getting a decent used EV for less than $10,000… which way should I go?…”

It’s not on your list but Chevy Volt is arguably best pre-owned EV bang for buck.

The Volt’s AER (All Electric Range) covers the majority miles drivin for most drivers and Volt has gas backup for those occasional long distance trips.

I second this.

Also agree. Keep in mind the worthwhile difference between an MY2012 and 2013 is the HOLD mode. This mode lets you manually start on gasoline. Volt drivers drive 97% 0f their trips on pure electricity which is what you are after. The 3% of trips let you go long with this PHEV. Early EVs that don’t have heat pumps use a lot of juice to heat the cabin. Starting a Volt on just a bit of gas lets you heat the cabin without losing range. Heated seats are a must and you could get them in a Volt, but a lot of stripped down models don’t have it so watch for that.

If the choice was between the 4 cars Jeffrey noted and the Volt, I would go with the Volt every time. I am at 850 mpg plus the 65 cents worth of electricity I use charging every night. So I can road trip with no compromises and use All American electricity 95% of the time. Plus the hatch gives the Volt pretty good utility.

We love our used 2014 500e, perfect city car with a great stereo 🙂

Do Not Read Between The Lines

500e: no fast charging; 7.2kW AC
Spark: optional CCS <=50kW; 3.3kW AC
Leaf: optional CHAdeMO <=50kW; 3.3kW/6.6kW AC; no TMS – degradation issues in hot climates

Depending on climate and typical miles driven a Volt might suit.
Leaf might also suit if you're in a mild climate

If you drive few miles and you're in a warm climate there's also the Mitsubishi iMIEV. The limited range means that it can be found very cheap.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

Note that the iMIEV has CHAdeMO DC fast charging

SparkEV is quickest among them, both in acceleration and DC fast charging (if it has the option; average fast charging time of 15 minutes), There’s youtube of someone who drove SparkEV 650 miles in 16 hours by only using DCFC.

500e is cheapest, because it doesn’t come with DCFC. It cannot drive more than about 50 miles away from home without hours of charging.

Soul is largest, and some come with DCFC. Some people traveled 300 miles to camping trip by using DCFC.

Leaf is turd. It’s slow, slow DCFC due to lack of thermal management, battery degradation, etc. etc. Avoid.

Actually the LEAF is the best one if you get a model after the first quarter 2013. One of the most reliable cars ever made, just make sure the limited range suites your daily commute. My 38 mile commute is perfect for 2012 LEAF. The batteries will last a long long long long time even in the heat if you follow the widely accepted 20-80% charging doctrine. Better yet get a 2012 with the replacement lizard batteries. Put 17×8 inch rims on it and it takes a lot of the Dork out.

I think you will enjoy the FIAT 500e. it is stylish and fun but it does have a very limited range like the LEAF. The most reliable Fiat and much quicker than the Abarth spider. It does not have optional quick charging, but if all you need is a commuter to keep miles off your Z car or truck its perfect.

Enjoy your EV, try to find one that goes about twice your daily commute and you will have plenty of juice for AC, heat, and extra errands.

The Volts have great service life too. Great batteries too.

I can verify that the Volt is an excellent choice, if you don’t have a lot of daily miles to drive. I had one for two years, and except for trips I think I put maybe 4 tanks of gas in it. When I sold it, most of the last tank was still there. It handled great and was fun to drive, but the time came to get my Tesla.

Well, if you want inexpensive it is hard to beat the 500e. They can be had for around $7,000. I have a fleet of EVs that I rent out on Turo including a 500e. So I’ve driven it quite a bit. It’s a terribly impractical car especially if you have more than 2 people in your household because the rear seats will not fit anyone except a small child. It also has no fast charging, but on the bright side it charges pretty quickly from L2.

Several people are recommending the Volt. I agree it is a great car for the price, but when you apply your rule of “under $10,000” then that limits you to first gen Volts with a lot of miles. I probably wouldn’t get a Volt unless you were OK spending $13,000 or more.

At around $10K budget, you might also consider a lease.

The lowest cost lease is $5,850 total for 36 months. A used EV might depreciate that much over 36 months. And depending on what state you live in, you might be eligible for state incentives that could cut this by even more.


Agreed Volt is the way to go with that budget.

We need more information to do a proper requirements analysis:

1) Second car or primary car – if secondary, whatever you like.
2) Primary car (replacing something else) – What is your weekly driving? Will you do cross country drives in car?

In addition:
1) The primary/secondary distinction should really be more detailed, as in how many miles/day. More daily miles means larger battery needed (or access to charging mid-weekday, which may not be practical), as well as more time at night charging.
Do you live in a house where you can install your own EVSE? If the daily mileage is low enough, you might get by with charging from a household 120V socket.
If you live in an apt.,do you have an assigned parking spot? Will the building allow you to install an EVSE?

2) If the car will be used for long trips, it means needing DC quick-charging sessions:
a) How many times/year will those trips happen? If it’s rare, needing inconvenient waits for chargingto finish isn’t a big deal.
b) How long, in miles/day? What speeds?
c) What area of the country (density of charging networks varies widely, as does climate, which affects cars with insufficient battery-cooling (that is, the LEAF))?

They are all decent EVs. Avoid the old LEAFS before they fixed their battery issue. The Spark is an underappreciated albeit tiny little car. The Fiat 500e is very cute but lacks any DC fast-charger port.

Check your local charging infrastructure to see if CCS (Spark) or Chademo (LEAF) is better supported in your area.

The battery issue with the Leaf still has still not been fixed; merely made somewhat less bad.

Actually the 2013 2nd quarter on LEAFs have the best batteries, Great service life. Several thousand charge cycles, maybe 10,000 charge cycles if you use it in the 20-80% charge range. The Volts have great batteries for hybrids.

I wouldn’t go near any of them, especially a Fiat or a Spark.

Used EVs are great buys, just make sure the range suites your needs. I have saved over $21,000 in gasoline and tons and tons and tons of CO2 in seven years driving a 2012 LEAF. Get a 2014 LEAF with 12 bars, Volt, or 500e. if your an aprtment dweller or renter lean towards the Volt. If you want the second no frills save a lot of money second car to save your truck look no further than a LEAF.

If you like the 500e and get a good deal I say go for it! Enjoy!

If this is for your daughter to commute to school I recommend the LEAF, one of the most reliable cars ever made.

I am expecting a total of 35000 electric cars sold in October

You’ll be close. Aside from the Model 3, US EV sales are fairly stagnant. So last year’s 14k + ~21k Model 3s should be about right.

Looks like it’ll be 34k.

I guess, in hindsight, we have to thank BMW for literally doing nothing to increases i3 sales. No Threat To Tesla in Any Way.

From article: “…September we saw a monumental effort by Tesla to get as many Model 3… won’t see that September number [22,250] eclipsed … at least not during this reporting cycle…”

Oct Tesla Model 3: 24,950


Most other predictions are much lower.

Some say even lower than 20,000.

Interesting number – higher than September!. How did you come up with it? All other external indications are that Tesla’s deliveries really dropped off.

Troy’s Model 3 Order Tracker site showed only 227 US member received delivery in October, compared to 925 in September. His database’s sample rate appears to be running somewhere in the 3-4% range in the September/October period. This would suggest total US October deliveries would be somewhere between 5,600-7,600. This is also consistent with the Bloomberg tracker sheet Method 2 “Tesla VINs Spotted Model” chart which showed a very flattened VIN curve and about 5,000 new VINs reported to Model 3 purchasers from Oct. 1-Oct 31.

It will be very interesting to see what IEVs – the gold standard of Tesla delivery estimating – comes up with and how the market reacts to the final result.

Yeah, seems like Wade hinted at July numbers.

Higher than July, lower than Sept. We saw a performance similar to August except with more inventory headed to Canada and the East coast than in August.


Do people still post their VINs on social media when they get a new Model 3? That is so last quarter…

Same with filling out VIN spreadsheets. I would expect that to drop off steeply over time

Yes they do, but in much smaller quantities. Enthusiasts still post on spreadsheets, social media, reddit, etc. General public does not though. As time goes by, the number participating will drop off, but monthly production will stabalize.

This is one of the primary ways we make our estimates and this is why it takes so long to gather the info. On their own, VINs won’t give an accurate estimate. But when combined with other factors like delivery location, production averages, etc… thats how we get so close every quarter.

I finalized our Tesla estimates a bit ago. Eric has started working on the article and newsletter post to go out at the same time.

Tesla numbers are the most interesting to people of all types. And they take the most effort to create. So they get top billing! 🙂 They are coming today.

@HVACman said: “Interesting number – higher than September!. How did you come up with it?…”

I happen to drive past by a Tesla Service Center to/from work each day… a few times a week I take the time to swing in an count the number of Model 3 sitting in the delivery room which I can quickly do without having to get out of my car because of the delivery room’s glass pane frontage. I also count the number of Model 3 parked in outdoor pre-recon line. I jailhouse line-tick that number on a scratch pad I keep in my car. At end of month I do a count tally and adjust to take into account number of times visted and number of days in the month. That gives me a month-to-month normalized comparative reference. Oct was an uptick from Sep.

Admittedly a ridiculous supper narrow data point that leaves a bunch of factors unaccounted for.

Who on earth is buying Fuel Cell cars, with all the hassle of refueling, these days?

167 people in October according to this website. I believe most (if not all) of FCEVs are leased not purchased and come with free fuel for the length of the lease. Once hydrogen stops being free to FCEVs drivers, their vehicles will become very expensive to operate.

If anyone was dumb enough to hold on to them beyond free fuel period, they will lose 100% of their money in 3 years (or 1 year in case of some shorter free fuel). I suppose they might get $100 if the junk yard wants them, but even junkyard demand is suspect for such low volume car.

Fuel Cells will become a diversity offering, since EV won’t fit all needs. Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and GM all continue to invest in the tech, knowing some industry will benefit from that. Think commercial use, not personal transport in a market like have here.

Think ZEV credits…..

Yes, FCEV give a lot of ZEV credits, but apparently they fixed the issue that FCEV was getting 7 credits while BEV were getting max. 4. Now it is max. 4 for both. In theory, a manufacturer could set up an independent spin-off lets say “FCEV driving experiene company” and buy their own FCEV for credits. It is cheaper to purchace ZEV credits from Tesla, though, as Toyota has done last year. The whole ZEV mandate is rather weak now, as the goal of 22% credits in a few years can be reached with only 8% BEV share in the market below 8500 pounds, and Tesla is on a path to do most of that lifting. That is one of the reasons that Ford is ditching the entire sedan segment in favor of heavy trucks, because then they need less credits. And also the GM initiative of a 25% credit system by 2030 is put into context, as this would equal 9% long range BEVs, even weaker compared to CARBs 2025 goal. Moreover, GM’s proposal has a clause that it will be discarded entirely once the overall goal is met, hence once Tesla has done the heavy lifting, nobody would… Read more »

You can go coast to coast in both USA & Canada in Model-3 priced at $50K, but in fuel cell vehicle, you cannot go 350 miles away from Los Angeles.
So EV fits needs better than FCVs. By the time more Hydrogen stations appear, there will also be plenty of chargers and EVs with 250 mile range that will help in long distance driving. Of course higher Model-3 sales itself will make up for lack of interest of others.

BTW, do you know any website that posts hybrid sales. That hybridcars.com have stopped publishing.

“in fuel cell vehicle, you cannot go 350 miles away from Los Angeles.”

You should be able to drive from San Diego to Sacramento and in a Nexo as far as Redding and back. You also could drive from San Diego to Medford Oregon but you would probably need to be towed back to Sacramento to refuel.

For commercial use, the much higher costs of operation probably make hydrogen even less attractive than for private use…

Well, if by “commercial use” you mean forklifts…

But not ordinary passenger cars or freight trucks.

Can we please drop all the hybrids? If it burns gas lets just leave it out. Most prefer to compare apples to apples.

this was a previous request 🙂
as a compromise they’ve added a battery icon next to the BEVs, in few years they’ll drop the hybrids , in the meanwhile I’ll continue to completely ignore those.

Please don’t drop them. For people in less densely populated areas they may be the better choice until the charging network gets built out. And besides, for many people charging at home may cover the vast majority of the miles. BUT, I would say drop all of the PHEVs with low AER, since they may not practically be able to do many trips without the ICE starting. Maybe set the cutoff at 30 miles? 50 miles? That way the community sends a clear message that they aren’t practical (for use as an EV) with a tiny battery, but rather just a strategy to improve overall gas mileage. For my personal context, I might choose a PHEV pickup over a BEV. To meet my needs (and being incredibly optimistic about near future charging infrastructure), A BEV would need a minimum of 150kWh battery. That would be very expensive at today’s prices – could be $50k+ retail as a portion of the vehicle cost at current Tesla prices. A PHEV pickup with a 50kWh battery might be $25k less expensive (minus cost of 100kWh capacity, plus cost of a range extender). It might get 100 miles AER unloaded, which is more than… Read more »

My five year old C-Max handles most of my trips without burning gas. On Monday I had to drive 40 miles (half on plug-in power), found a wall plug to do some “destination charging”, did 20 miles of side trips on electric, then the 40 miles back home on gas. That’s a substantial savings from a relatively crappy PHEV.

I wish the manufacturers of PHEV Pickups would reach critical mass such that the major manufacturers would HAVE to start making them to remain competitive. Right now, companies that always talk a good story such as GM and Ford don’t have to have ANYTHING in that substantial market, and therefore DON’T.

I too have a 2013 C-Max. In the last 12 months I drove 4400 miles, 2400 were on electricity, so about 55%. However, 1800 of those 2000 gas miles were in one trip so having 50 miles AER versus 19 wouldn’t have made any significant difference in the percentage. If I had needed more than 19 miles AER I would have spent the extra money on the Volt (or waiting until they came down in price).

While I think PHEVs should be listed, I would like to see the chart split into two so we see separate totals for PHEV and BEV sales. Also charts could show lines for BEV and PHEV and bar for total.

One chart is fine, they just need to make it sortable/filterable.

The chart is not an image, which is very convenient. You can easily copy&paste it into an excel sheet and then do all sorts of sorting to your liking. All BEVs are thankfully marked already.

This is the InsideEVs site. I think you were looking for the BEVPuristCult site.

Scott: “Can we please drop all the (plug-in) hybrids?…”.

Scott – People who drive total BEVs yet still have gasoline powered string trimmers, snow blowers, lawn mowers, blowers, pressure washers etc. are still adding plenty of non-emission controlled pollutants to the air. THOSE are the things that should be totally electric.

A VOLT which has a very clean gasoline engine that is rarely used (80-90 % of operation done totally electrically) puts out far less pollution than an owner with a LEAF and plenty of pollution belching gas machines.

Now, myself, I have, in addition to a BEV BOLT and a PHEV ELR,

an electric string trimmer, a battery powered lawn mower, a 5 horsepower electric pressure washer, a home made 3 hp (effectively can get 7 1/2 hp our of it) snow blower, and an electric hedge clipper.

So I dispute anyone who says it can’t be done.

No, InsideEVs isn’t going to start ignoring all segments of the EV market other than street legal, highway capable BEV passenger cars. At least I hope not!

The Clarity PHEV section of the InsideEVs forum is by far the most active section, probably with more posts per week than all the other sections of the forum put together.


Will Jaguar i-pace get on the list this month ?
Not showing yet.


@insideEVs – A question for November and December: Will all 3 Tesla models sell better than Prius Prime YTD? Then Tesla would have the 3 best selling EVs in the U.S.

It could happen if Tesla really blows out their S/X inventory like they did in Q4 of last year.

In Global sales the Model S is already ahead of the Prius Prime and the Model X is just behind and catching fast.


It is the Global sales that count not only the USA as these companies are operating in the Global market.

I’m still trying to figure out why anybody would buy a Toyota Mirai. I assume almost all are leases, does anybody know what the lease payments, and down payment are? I also assume that H2 fuel is free for the full duration of the lease, can anyone confirm that?

I also see 2016 Mirai on Cars.com listed for $23k. I assume free fuel is not available for these and if I read correctly the cost of H2 is approximately twice that of gas. I would think this makes a hard sell for used Mirai.

H2 in my area goes for between $13-$18/kg. One kg of fuel gets you about 60 miles of driving in a Mirai.

Yes and right there you can see why H2 fool cell cars are for all practical purposes DOA or Dead Man Walking.

Hydrogen – The perfect Fuel for the person who NEVER DRIVES.

Haha/. 6 months, > 10k miles later. A big grin on my face, especially when I pass the long super charger lines. 🙂
Go H2!

Where are you since there are no line-ups here in Ontario that I have very seen.

Does the ‘3 years of free hydrogen’ deal mean they’ll AIR LIFT my car to California and back to refuel it?

And how was that H2 produced?
Chances are, at 90%, that it was from fossil fuel.

If not from the 96% that is sourced from fossil fuel, then definitely from Electrolysis, which makes up the other 4%.

If only the wild unicorn herd would chip in and Doo their part, we could be further along the path, to the EVentual Shangri-La, that is the Double Rainbow of Hydrogen fuel sustainability!

Notice needs at-least 3 times the power as the battery systems for the same mileage.

???? Here in Ontario $13 will buy 10 liters of gas, and since I get 100 KM for 10 liters or 60 miles there is not benefit in costs going hydrogen vs gasoline.

The general public will want more mileage per buck before they buy these cars.

Some experiments must be run to completion.

No matter how long they take..

“I’m still trying to figure out why anybody would buy a Toyota Mirai.”

I’ve read a couple of reports from engineers directly involved in R&D for FCEVs, and they want to support the efforts to build them, so have chosen to lease and drive a FCEV.

Nothing wrong with that; I admire their willingness to put their money where their mouth is and support the development effort.

But otherwise, I can’t for the life of me figure out why anyone would pay to lease one of these cars. “Fool cell” cars is an apt description; they might as well try to bring back steam engine cars! They’re never going to be practical, and anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty deeply in denial, despite all of Toyota’s propaganda about FCEVs being “the future of automobiles”.

The leases are attractive. You don’t pay much for a really nice car. I have a Clarity PHEV and it is really nice vehicle that can be had relatively cheaply, and the EV version or FCV version are even cheaper to lease than the PHEV by almost half (less than $300/mo), and they allow 20,000 miles per year. They are literally giving them out at that price.

The car itself is more than twice as expensive as a combustion car; so the fuel being twice as expensive doesn’t change the equation much 😉

People buying them are presumably those who have been tricked into believing that it’s the ecological choice of the future, and thus worth paying extra for…

Well, suffice to say Bloomberg and electrek were right, and I was wrong. Disappointing to see a sharp drop in Model 3 sales with no indication of production ramp up.

A drop in sales for the first month of a quarter is perfectly normal for Tesla, given its quarterly three-month production/delivery cycle. I think most well-informed industry watchers would have predicted a drop, altho perhaps the latest drop is bigger than most of us expected. There was a similar drop in TM3 sales between March-April of this year, altho a much smaller percentage drop.

The usual Tesla quarterly delivery cycle mostly results from international shipping. End-of-quarter push normally plays a much smaller role as far as I can tell.

In this case, the September number were inflated much more than during an ordinary end-of-quarter push, since there was a large back-log of undelivered cars entering that month. This is no longer the case.

FWIW, my latest estimate was ~20,000 +/-2,000, i.e. ~18,000 was my low estimate… Not that far off.

Model 3 in Oct still tied August, which is the second month of Q3. If that growth continues, and there’s no reason to think it won’t, Nov will be ~22k and Dec will be well over 25k.


I hope you’re right, but (if I recall correctly) Wade Malone says that Tesla’s Model 3 production has stabilized, which suppose means plateaued, at least temporarily. It may remain that way until the end of the year, and not start growing again until deliveries in Europe begin in Q1 2019.

Tesla could increase domestic demand for the Model 3 by introducing leases or by making the $5k PUP (Premium Upgrade Package) non-mandatory (or of course by starting sales of the Standard Range version), but it seems they are not willing to do either until they can increase production and bring down costs more. Increased production requires increased demand.

Compare to July, that is the most comparable month, so up about 20%.

Well, normally it would be correct to compare to July. But this year, because of the tax-incentives, July was not a typical first of the quarter month in the US, as the last month of the quarter push in Q2 was engineered to deliver lots of model 3 to Canada to allow customers to catch the incentives in Ontario. US-numbers for July are a bit inflated, but June were lower, on account of a lot of Model 3 in transit.

Looks like Model 3 sales cannibalized Model S and X sales somewhat.

“Looks like Model 3 sales cannibalized Model S and X sales somewhat.”

No. US sales of S&X were cannibalized by EU sales of S&X. It happens every first month of each quarter.

Yes, though it’s more accurate to say overseas production rather than sales. Overseas vehicles are produced in October, spend November at sea and get delivered in December (roughly speaking).

By global shipments, not sales. These will only become sales towards the end of the quarter.

Chevy Bolt, crushing it!…ish

I think the one that surprises me the most is the Honda Clarity PHEV. It is selling around 2,000 units per month and yet I’ve never seen one on the streets. And considering how ugly it is, it wouldn’t be hard to spot if I saw one. Our local Honda dealer has 6 of them on the lot, but I’m pretty sure they have had the same 6 ones there for months. Then again, they’re all basically the same color so it’s hard to really keep count without looking at the VIN numbers every time I drive by.

There is a thread on the Clarity PHEV section of the InsideEVs forum about how rare it is for Clarity PHEV drivers to see others on the roads. Interesting that so many drivers of this car have congregated for discussion here at InsideEVs, far more than any other EV, despite the comparative rarity of the car. I guess the Clarity PHEV section of the Forum has achieved critical mass!


Yup. For the last 2 months combined sales, the Clarity beat the Bolt or Volt sales!

I see about one a day here in Silicon Valley. As great a performer as they are, I would prefer to not have to look at them.

Love the car, lots of people love the looks of the car. I am neutral on it. We have put 25,000 miles on since Dec and saved well over 1,000 gallons of gas vs our minivan. Gets 40 mpg at 75-80 mph on gas, and easily exceeds 47 mile electric range. I suppose our mix is about 15,000 EV miles and 10,000 gas miles.

See one all the time now in Ohio

Tesla had the highest 347% increase among brands. Surprised to see Model-3 fall so much despite their talk in the earnings call about expediting the sales from 30 – 20 days.

Model-3 has probably fallen back to #6 in sales which is still great. Anyway its a non quarter end and as usual Tesla takes a hit. Still by sales value, Tesla may more more than Lexus.

If they sell another 5,000 – 6,000 in rest of the World, they may tie up with BYD and keep the lead margin. Competition for Worldwide YTD may be tighetening.

The accelerated deliveries already happened in September; so there wasn’t as much backlog to work through in October.

I don’t think that’s correct. The record number of deliveries in September was achieved only with the help of a lot of volunteer Tesla car owners. Elon was talking about Tesla making the delivery process more efficient to reduce the average days in transit, and I presume that’s something which Tesla is now working to accomplish.

It doesn’t matter *how* they managed to reduce the backlog in September — what matters is that they didn’t have an overly large backlog to work through entering October.

Out of 50 vehicles in the dashboard, Tesla Model-3 alone holds 50% market share presuming total sales ends up at 35,000.
Is it so wonderful of Tesla or shame of other automakers. Answer is both.

Nissan should soon introduce the 60 KWh version of Leaf with TMS. Even in the 40 KWh version the TMS should be introduced.

Jaguar I-Pace should have sold at least 1 unit to that Florida family.

And all months in Top-5 are in 2018, it shows the market is accelerating.

With the 95,882 sales, Model-3 has overtaken Prius Plugin’s cumulative US sales of around 90 K and is now placed 4th after Volt, Model-S and Leaf.

Seems Tesla sold their 300,000 vehicles Worldwide in Feb-2018 and in the next 8 months, they have sold more than 100,000 vehicles which means they crossed 400,000 mark.
Hooray Tesla.

Perhaps there should be a Jaguar I-Pace line with a count of one:

Can’t we (all sustainability news sites) just stop reporting PHEV sales. They are not zero emission vehicles and they contribute to air pollution and global warming. Just focus on BEVs and forget the hybrids. Please.

Do Not Read Between The Lines

No. PHEVs are relevant. Proportion of miles electric depends on driving pattern and the car. Our Volt is running over 100mpg over the last year, which implies we’ve been well over 60% electric during that time. And that’s a Gen 1 Volt with only 38 miles of rated range. We’d be doing better with a Gen 2, especially a 2019.
Relevance will decrease over time, I expect, but for now, only Model 3 stands out above them.

BEVs contribute to pollution and global warming, too. Some more than the best PHEVs.

Yup. Pretending that BEVs are “perfect” in regard to zero emissions, is just wrong. If nothing else, there are greenhouse gas emissions associated with making and delivering the car. BEVs are are on average better over their lifetime than PHEVs in most regions, but that’s a matter of degree, not kind. It’s not nearly as black-and-white as EV “purists” seem to believe.

We have two plug-in hybrids: 2017 Prius Prime and 2014 BMW i3-REx. Do you really want me to leave InSideEVs?

I drove the Prius Prime 1137 miles in one day including visiting a brother for a couple of hours. Later that year, my wife, her dogs, and I drove 700 miles each way to visit relatives in Oklahoma. There have also been day trips to Knoxville and Spring City.

More recently, I’ve benchmarked Huntsville to Nashville and back. It takes $25 at fast DC chargers and 4 hours including and extra 30 miles to reach the Manchester Electrify America station. The return home cost $6.25 in gas, premium, and took just under 2 hours.

I’m a $20/yr, paid subscriber because I vote with my wallet. Do you really want to drive me off?

Isn’t the point to get as many as possible to plug in?

Focusing only on BEVs would be counter-productive. I traveled 2,674 miles with my last tank of gas. It took less than 8 gallons to refill because 89% of those miles were electric. That’s a dramatic reduction of gas use from a small battery-pack in an affordable vehicle.

Don’t you want PHEVs to help contribute to the growth of charging infrastructure?

Covering 89% (2,674 miles) of the drive with battery is remarkable. Truly Appreciated.
But Toyota is not going to increase the sales of Prius Plugin because they still believe in “No need to plugin”.

For that price, the sales of Prius Plugin should be somewhere in 5,000 range given the fact that the plugin is cheaper than hybrid after Fed $4,000 + rebate.
Now the sales of Prius hybrid is also going down and from MY-2019, Toyota hybrid will have trim names like L, LE, XLE instead of Packages: 1, 2, 3, 4 (Eco, Touring). If they want to remove premium image of Prius, will they also remove the premium price and set its price at Corolla’s price + $2,000.
Corolla starts at $18,700 while Prius starts at $23,475 which is a premium of $4,775.

Of course Prius has more interior space than Camry and lot more features than Corolla, but this fact is never advertised.

Just because Toyota refuses to make and sell a plug-in EV with decent range doesn’t mean IEVs should stop covering PHEVs. As the EV revolution progresses and car buyers demand more and more plug-in EVs with a good EV range, Toyota can either adapt or die.

EVs also contribute to global warming, just less so than most regular ICE cars. My Clarity PHEV has saved over 1000 gallons of gas vs my minivan in the past year, a savings of 3 tons of CO2 out the tailpipe (and less than that added back in generation). If people move from a less efficient vehicle to a PHEV or hybrid it is a win.

“Can’t we (all sustainability news sites) just stop reporting PHEV sales.”

Why is there so much insistence on EV “purity” from some EV advocates?

According to VoltStats.net, the average Chevy Volt gets 66% of its miles from electricity, not from burning gas. Isn’t that a heck of a lot better than somebody driving a gasmobile?

If EV makers stop making PHEVs, that won’t force those who would buy PHEVs to buy BEVs. Most of them would just turn back to buying gasmobiles. Not everyone has access to an EV charger at home or at work, so for those people, BEVs are not a realistic option. For a lot of apartment dwellers, It’s either PHEVs or gasmobiles.

Trying to ignore the PHEV segment of the EV market would be one of the worst cases of “The perfect driving out the good” that I can imagine. Thank goodness IEVs covers both BEVs and PHEVs!

Mercedes: “D”
Mercedes is distracted in class, she is not engaged, and does not participate.
Her general attitude is stand offish and aloof, and she does not accept help if offered.
She also thinks she knows everything on every subject.
Please come and see me so we may discuss. Thanks Ms. Fulcrum.

Dear Ms. Fulcrum

Please ensure that Mercedes does not fall from “D” to “F” as she is going to drop out of class on subjects like C-Class, E-Class, S-Class and GLE-Class plugins.
Her only subject of interest is Smart-For-2 EV and even in that subject, she is slowing losing interest as her partner is not planning to make more.

The only bright light is her plan to re-attend C-Class, E-Class & S-Class plugins with both Petrol & Diesel.

Regards, Concerned friend.

Thank you for your concern, Concerned Friend, I will take this under advisement.
Yours Studiously, MF.

Jean-François Morissette

Every month the Non-Tesla sales is around 14,000 and luckily its gradually increasing from 12,739 (July) to 13,205 (August) to 14,614 (September) and if it hits 15,000 (October), then the total will be 35,000.
We have to appreciate the automakers for making some improvements if not as much as Tesla.

Month # Model-S # Model-X # Model-3 # Tesla Sales # Non-Tesla Sales # Total Sales
July # 1200 # 1325 # 14250 # 16775 # 12739 # 29514
August # 2625 # 2750 # 17800 # 23175 # 13205 # 36380
September # 3750 # 3975 # 22250 # 29975 # 14614 # 44589
October # 1350 # 1225 # 17750 # 20325

For those who are interested, Jaguar sold 5 units of I-Pace EV (goodcarbadcar.net) and all their car sales took a knock.
If not for F-Pace and E-Pace the make would have been in danger.

October was the 1st month for I-Pace and lets hope November brings in sales of few 100’s if their dealers sell well. Otherwise the whole make could be in danger. JLR will just dump this and focus on Land Rover make which is selling very well.

For U.S.? Link?

Jean-François Morissette


Thank you!

There are 2 I-Pace listed on AutpTrader.com. And one is in Texas DFW area!

I’m just curious. If you remove Tesla S, 3 ,and X from the sales scorecard, what the graph will look like?

The Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date is all decided by Model 3 now. When Model 3 sells at a new record number, the trend will go up, when Model 3 doesn’t beat the previous month, the trend will go down. The rest of the cars are irrelevant

Yes, Tesla has remained relatively quiet regarding their huge ramp-up of sales and just proceeds to make plenty of cars each month.

Other companies – such as GM and FORD, yak way too much about their electric offerings, FORD especially having beyond dismal sales in the States. Perhaps GM will prove me wrong by having some refreshingly different electrified vehicles (and I don’t mean those Silly Hydrogen Things) available for the 2020 Model Year (they have nothing new for 2019).

GM at least is saving dollars by cancelling several ‘TROPHY BUILDING’ projects – if they are using the savings for future ev products, then this is a good thing.

The absolute WORST are the German car companies. Somewhat lackluster offerings with essentially no availability , here in the states at least. I would guess they’re selling the cars firstly at home. Fine – but why yak about it here?

GM is also trying to buy out, or lay-off 1/3 of it’s NA white collar, read management, staff off. I guess with falling sales and falling numbers of models you can cut out some of the fat. Luckily there is still an appetite for Trucks and SUv’s at least in NA, and Cadillac is still doing good in China. I guess they did not get the memo that Caddies are passe’.
I don’t think this will last. With interest rates rising the consumer is just going to get tapped out, and blow-out sales quarters are going to a thing of the past for legacy auto and truck companies, such as GM and Ford.
ATM GM is spending a lot on Cruise. $550 million or so, plus whatever they paid for it, to try to get it perfected to the point that it’s as good as they claim it is. I think the system is fine where it is fenced or mapped, but get it out of the corral and it’s a bull in a China shop, or does it just not work, and turn itself off.
Ok, turning over the car to you.

Wow I’m disappointed. I had the model 3 at
27k 30k. Did the 3 reach the pike of the S curve

You mean the peak? No, we’ll see increasing production and sales when Tesla starts selling the TM3 in Europe next year, if not before.

Tesla has chosen not to pull at least 3 “demand levers” for the TM3: Leases, making the $5k Premium Upgrade Package non-mandatory, and putting the Standard Range Model 3 into production.

Eventually, Tesla will pull all three of those levers, and in a couple of years or so we’ll see the Chinese Gigafactory start to produce Model 3’s.

All that will happen before we see the peak of Model 3 S-curve of production and sales.

There is a comment from the editors in the to section like this

“Wouldn’t it be nice if these brands would just fess up and be transparent and forthcoming? Oh well, we’ve tried and failed on numerous occassions, so you’ll have to rely on our research.”

The automakers don’t want to provide split of plugin sales for these reasons.
1. Prospective customers who see this could buy more plugins.
2. Critics and plugin supporters could question automakers on why they are not selling more.
3. Market analysts could use these sales to calculate the margins / model.

Above all, automakers are not interested in selling more plugins. So please don’t ask the automakers anymore. If you could not get the data, just ignore and remove their model from the dashboard.

Now Ford is reduced to just 1 model: Fusion plugin and even its sales are going down drastically.

“The automakers don’t want to provide split of plugin sales for these reasons.”

Actually, the reason auto makers hold so much info as trade secrets is that the new car market is highly competitive, and they don’t want their competitors to know what they’re doing. I think that’s the main reason that a growing number of auto makers are refusing to provide monthly production numbers for their EVs, rather than any of the reasons you cite. Altho for Tesla alone, the primary purpose may well be to frustrate the way short-selling FÜDsters have so often used the numbers to falsely claim Tesla’s sales are “falling”. For other auto makers, short-selling activity (and FÜD from such short-sellers) isn’t nearly as high.

Regarding Plug-In sales in the US in 2018:

The Tesla Model 3 is the only Plug-In model that will have achieved the 100,000 milestone in the US in 2018. And probably also the 200,000 milestone in the US in 2019. That’s really good progress.

The combined annual US sales total of the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X will probably be about 50,000 in 2018. That’s good as well for EV models in this price category.

The Toyota Prius Prime is the only other than Tesla Plug-In model that already has achieved a higher than 20,000 sales number in the US in 2018. All the other Plug-In models will end this year with an annual sales total of less than 20,000 units per Plug-In model.

Only 4 other Plug-In models already have achieved a higher than 10,000 annual sales number: the Chevrolet Volt, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, the Honda Clarity PHEV, and the Nissan Leaf.

All the other Plug-In models will not get anywhere near the annual total of 10,000 in the US in 2018.

Which Plug-In models will do well in 2019?
What changes will there be in 2019?

I might have gotten a 2017 eGolf instead of my 2018 Leaf S if VW were actually interested in selling them any more.

2017s appeared out of nowhere in 2018 like they were stuck on the boat in the arctic or something and disappeared just as mysteriously.

Guess VW didn’t want to play the lose-money-in-the-CARB-states game when there was so much money to be made in W Euro with this great BEV.

Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):
September 2018 – 44,589
August 2018 – 36,380
October 2018 – 32,152 (and counting)
July 2018 – 29,514
March 2018 – 26,373

We can already be pretty sure that July and March will not be in the top 5 anymore when November and December will have entered into the top 5. All top 5 months will have a monthly total of more than 30,000 Plug-In sales each.

Regarding the first half of 2019, January and February will not get into the top 5. March will probably have a chance to get in the top 5. April and May will probably not get into the top 5. And June will probably have a chance to get into the top 5.

That’s because a substantial number of Tesla Model 3 cars will be transported to Europe.

Expectations regarding Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in 2019:
Q1: about 30,000
Q2: about 40,000
Q3: about 50,000
Q4: about 60,000

Anybody want to share any ideas regarding this subject?

I don’t think we’ll see the huge % increase in US deliveries in 2019 compare with 2018.
2019 is all about the world deliveries.

Ford – once a significant part of the total — has become a footnote……

Jean-François Morissette

Still surprised than in this huge 2018 year, we don’t see new offerings arriving on the market. Hope this will change in 2019!

I think we’ve seen the end of the sub-30k months for good now.

October 2018 had a 138% jump, Y/Y. That’s the largest Y/Y jump for any month for US PEV sales since August 2013 (was a 141% jump from 4686 to 11273… actually, every month from December 2010 – August 2013 was a more than doubling Y/Y, with the exception of June 2012.)