November Sales Of Plug-In EVs Rise In US – For 26th Month In A Row, BMW Surprises

3 days ago by Jay Cole 91

GM’s Chevy Bolt EV (seen here flanked by “future” EVs) lead the charge of plug-in sales in November for the US

Sales of plug-in electric vehicles sang a familiar tune in November for the US…as in“up, up, up”.  

With that in mind, expectations for 2017’s final months were a lot higher earlier in the year – but the virtual no show of the Tesla Model 3, and the actual no show of the new 2018 Nissan LEAF (now arriving in January), kept the lid on the pending “EV explosion” – now tentatively set for January.

The BMW 530e was the surprise hit of November,
selling 872 copies –
an all-time high!
(InsideEVs/Tom Moloughney)

For the month some ~17,178 plug-ins were sold, good for a 33% gain over the 13,237.  November’s results was the 26th consecutive month of plug-in sales gains in America.

Cumulatively, 173,941 delivers have been made – 30% more than a year ago.

In the absence of the Model 3 and new LEAF, the Chevrolet Bolt EV made the most of its time as the lone long range, affordable all-electric offering in America – selling almost 3,000 copies; making the 238 mile Chevy the best selling EV in the US for the third time over the past 4 months.

At the same time, the Chevrolet Volt was passed during the month by the Toyota Prius Prime, falling into 4th place on the year’s best seller’s list – the lowest showing to date for the Volt.

However BMW stole all the headlines this month, as its iPerformance offerings (think plug-in versions of popular petrol models) crushed all expectations, selling a combined 2,398 units, almost doubling any prior effort.  The charge was lead by a resurgent X5 40e with 929 sales, and the 530e with 872 deliveries of its own.

Looking ahead, the Kia Niro PHEV and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV are both still pegged for a December release, but neither are expected until the latter part of the month, so they will likely not be impacting next month’s sales in a significant way.

2017 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers – *Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals, ** Estimated (Based on State/Rebate Data and other reports), Credit to HybridCars.com for assist on Hyundai/some BMW data

Other Statistical Points of Interest from November 2017

BMW’s iPerformance sales was lead by the X5 xDrive 40e …with almost 1,000 deliveries in November!

Top Manufacturers Of Plug-In Vehicles:

  1. General Motors – 4,725
  2. Tesla* – 3,555
  3. BMW Group – 2,821
  4. Toyota – 1,834
  5. Ford – 1,357

All-Electric Vehicle Market Share vs PHEV In November*

  1. PHEV – 8,994 -52.4%
  2. BEV – 8,166– 47.6%

(*) estimated

New Year Highs Set In November By Model (previous 2017 high in brackets)

  • Chevrolet Bolt EV – 2,987 (2,718)
  • BMW X5 xDrive 40e – 929 (488)
  • BMW 530e – 872 (583)
  • Tesla Model 3* – 345 (145)
  • Honda Clarity BEV – 459 (52)
  • MINI Countryman PHV – 96 (86)
  • Cadillac CT6 Plug-In Hybrid – 29 (27)
  • Chevrolet Spark EV – 7 (4)
  • Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid – 5 (2)
  • Honda Clarity PHEV – 5 (new model)

The full monthly recap by individual plug-in (all-time) can be found on our Monthly Scorecard here.

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91 responses to "November Sales Of Plug-In EVs Rise In US – For 26th Month In A Row, BMW Surprises"

  1. JyChevyVolt says:

    I just leased Honda Clarity Electric with 20,000 miles/year. Can’t beat $199/month with $899 down with California $2500 rebate and SCE rebate.

    Everything is great except for charging and battery information.

    1. Spoonman. says:

      With all the PHEVs in transit it’s hard to imagine the Clarity won’t hit the model recap list next month.

      1. menorman says:

        As it should. It’s really not a bad car, especially since it’s a bit bigger than the Volt with virtually identical performance. A lot of people have jumped to Chevy, but a lot more wouldn’t be caught dead in one but will gladly buy the Clarity PHEV. Plus, the uncertainty of the tax credit is surely going to send some people running to their local dealer sooner than they would’ve otherwise had planned to.

        1. Terawatt says:

          There’s no uncertainty about the tax credit. There was some, but it was quickly clarified and it continues according to plan. And with Honda’s numbers, there’s no reason to fear it runs out soon either.

          1. Dan says:

            Not true! There is no tax “reform” bill yet. It has to go to conference and then the house and senate have to vote on EXACTLY the same bill and then the orange unit has to sign it.

            If you have a republican senator or representative call, write, or email to tell them to vote NO and stop the giveaway to the very rich.

            1. Ziv says:

              Given that Tesla, GM and Nissan are all going to have their credit cut in half next year, and then cut in half again 6 months later, I would be ok with the reconciliation process eliminating the credit at the end of 2018. And I have a feeling that might just happen.
              No need to reward the slackers and watch the Big 3 penalized for bring attractive electric cars to the market in reasonable numbers before the other car makers have.

              1. leafowner says:

                Agree +100

            2. ffbj says:

              Tell them not to give money to the very rich, just what do you think one of the core principles of the Republican party is?

              1. Robb Stark says:

                Keeping your own money that you earned is not being given to you by the Federal Government.

          2. ClarksonCote says:

            You may want to update yourself on the most recent Republican tax relief bill changes. The house removes the credit, the senate preserves it (or vice versa).

            Whether or not the credit is maintained will be decided as the bills are reconciled.

            1. Mark.ca says:

              I can’t see how it will survive. They need to come up with serious money to make up the deficit. I guess there is a possibility that this entire joke of a tax reform will not pass but considering who the politicians represent i say it will pass.

              1. Robb Stark says:

                I can’t see how it doesn’t survive.

                The controlling votes on whether the bill passes or not is in the Senate not the House.

                The Senate’s Gang of Eight is perfectly ok with no bill on the President’s desk.

        2. Asak says:

          The Clarity PHEV looks like a really great car. I’m still struggling to understand why the BEV version couldn’t have included more range. I guess it just reflects that this model was designed to be a PHEV (whether with gas or hydrogen range extender), and didn’t include enough space for sufficient batteries.

          Still, if VW van manage to shoehorn in enough batteries to hit 125 miles of range in the Golf, it still boggles my mind that Honda couldn’t do the same in a larger car like the Clarity.

      2. John A Brewer Jr says:

        With 2017 sales EV’s increasing, the US will save by not importing approx 1 tanker full of oil over 12 month period. That alone will help in preserving EV American driver’s pocket book and rebuild wealth. This is huge going forward.

    2. menorman says:

      I heard that some dealers were offering $0 down on the Clarity EV and someone up in Sacto area got one for $169/month. Really not a bad deal at all, especially given the roominess of the car. By next summer, the CCS network in CA should be sufficiently robust enough to allow it to be able to reach most corners of the state without a problem.

      1. Robb Stark says:

        IF you don’t consider stopping every 75 mintues a problem.

      2. Asak says:

        Having less than 200 miles of electric range makes longer trips really questionable. Even if it’s technically possible, you have little margin for error and have to keep stopping every hour.

        With 200 miles of range you can stop just about when you need to use the restroom or get something to eat, so you’re not effectively losing as much time vs a gas car (you’d have to stop anyway, even if for a shorter time). With less than 100 miles that’s not the case.

        The charging network is nice in that if someone is relocating from SoCal to NoCal they can theoretically make the drive in their car, but it’s not really great for a trip.

      3. Asak says:

        It’s ok, but e-Golfs were going for closer to $100 a month a while back. I’d say that $169 is about what the Clarity BEV should be going for considering its short range.

    3. Michael Will says:

      All those are pretty good, 2017 clarity is basically like a 2015 VW eGolf or bmw i3, great second car for a two car family. I am going to keep ours until our model 3 reservation comes up.

    4. Stimpy says:

      Well, and the fact you have to look at it every day.

    5. ModernMarvelFan says:

      “Everything is great except for charging and battery information.”

      You mean you also love the fact that you go over 20mph with any kind of acceleration requirement, the engine turns on?

      1. JyChevyVolt says:

        I got the electric version, not the PHEV. The Volt has way better battery and energy usage information.

        The charging status light in located next to the plug. I plug in last night and it stated 72 miles of range, WTF. You got to drill into the menu to see the battery status.

        Let me tell you, no physical button, touch screen sucks. Honda better spend some money on better programmers.

        1. john1701a says:

          Just opening any door (including the hatch) on Prime will automatically pop up battery-status on the screen. It’s quite handy.

          1. ClarksonCote says:

            Yeah but doesn’t opening any door on the Prius also cause the engine to turn on? 😉 :p

        2. Nix says:

          congrats on the move to pure EV! Nice win on your lease, that’s a nice price.

          1. JyChevyVolt says:

            Thanks. This EV was the only lease option available to handle my 20,000 miles/year commute. The lowest range EV with the most lease mileage.

        3. ModernMarvelFan says:

          “I got the electric version, not the PHEV. The Volt has way better battery and energy usage information”

          Got it. My mistake.

          So, what do you think about the right turn signal/camera set up for “blind spot warning”?

          You would think they would put the camera on the driver side rather than the right/passenger side.

          Yeah, I can’t seem to handle the Honda touch screens. They almost make the Cadillac CUE or Ford Sync seem to be better.

          Now, I would agree that BEV version of the Clarity is the best of the 3 in my short driving experience of all 3. But that 80 miles really sucks. That is so 2010…

          1. JyChevyVolt says:

            “So, what do you think about the right turn signal/camera set up for “blind spot warning”?

            You would think they would put the camera on the driver side rather than the right/passenger side.”

            You can have the camera on all the time by pushing the center button on the turn signal switch. I just turn my head and never look at the screen.

            Regeneration is control by paddle shifters. I prefer the L in the Volt.

            “Yeah, I can’t seem to handle the Honda touch screens. They almost make the Cadillac CUE or Ford Sync seem to be better.

            Now, I would agree that BEV version of the Clarity is the best of the 3 in my short driving experience of all 3. But that 80 miles really sucks. That is so 2010…”

            Not much choices out there.
            1. Kona EV (not out yet)
            2. Bolt EV (No ACC, slow DCFC)
            3. Ioniq unlimited (couldn’t find it in stock at $300/month)
            4. Kia Niro EV (not out yet)
            5. Model 3 (questionable relibility, not out yet)
            6. I don’t buy German vehicles.

            Wifey will be driving the Clarity until we find a new car for her (her lease expired).

  2. Spoonman. says:

    I saw on Ford’s website that the 2018 Focus Electric will specifically be limited to a certain set of states, unlike the 2017 which was sold (in very small quantities) nationwide.

    By limiting the 2018 FFE even more than before and discontinuing the C-Max, how will Ford manage to hit its requirements in 2018?

    1. Jean-François Morissette says:

      That is a good question, I don’t know exactly the rules, but knowing how many large gas-guzzlers Ford sell, I would expected them to be required to be quite agressive to compensate for the low-mpg of their entire fleet.

      1. mx says:

        They can buy someone else’s credits.

        1. Jean-François Morissette says:

          True.

          If I remember well, the CAFE rules and EPA rules don’t apply to trucks, but to cars, so they can sell their huge F-series without taken their horrible performance into account…

    2. Leon says:

      Ford Focus Electric, Hyundai Electric and eGolf numbers are disappointing. But the real bummer is the Model 3 number. GM doing Ok with the Bolt.

      1. Nix says:

        “the real bummer is the Model 3 number”

        I think about 400,000 people agree with you…

    3. Texas FFE says:

      That statement is not correct. You can order the FFE in any state (just like a Tesla) but it is only stocked at dealerships in certain states. One of the big problems with FFE orders is that it can take three to six months to deliver. If you ordered a Focus Electric and a Model 3 the same day you would still get the FFE first.

  3. menorman says:

    Wow, is Hyundai even trying? Even compliance cars like the Clarity EV are outselling it…

    1. Spoonman. says:

      I would guess that Clarity number is mostly PHEVs.

      1. menorman says:

        Oh, were they actually able to start selling PHEVs in November? I haven’t yet seen any on the road or a dealer’s lot, but I have seen the Electric in both places (and one Fuel Cell on the road).

        1. Jay Cole says:

          Still working on trying to get splits on the the Clarity, but vast majority were BEVs. (should note that the PHEV is expected to ultimately be the volume player between the BEV and FCV)

          1. Spoonman. says:

            Thanks for the clarity on the Clarity, Jay.

            1. Jay Cole says:

              Just got the splits for those interested:

              Clarity BEV: 459
              Clarity PHEV: 5
              Clarity FCV: 0 (QC hold on new deliveries in November)

              Note/Update: Will update the chart to reflect the separate models, but we may not be able to get this data on an ongoing basis…will have to see how Honda chooses to report

              1. Dan says:

                Looks like FCV is dead on arrival. That makes sense because it cost twice as much and hydrogen cost is on par with gasoline. Not to mention it’s not available except in LA.

                1. ffbj says:

                  The result “O” reminds one of the model of a hydrogen atom.

    2. John Doe says:

      I’m surpriced myself.
      I’ve been driving the ionic for a week, and it just worked. Was (and feels)very energy efficient. That was the first model with the small battery. The new one, I’m not even sure I’ve seen it in real life.
      People wait in line. Unlike other manufacturers, Hyundai have not advertised this model at all.
      KIA advertise their EVs, VW advertise, Mercedes used too (not it’s just information that you can order the new model), Nissan advertise, Peugeot advertise the old iOn, Renault advertise the Zöe, Twizy and Kangoo.. and so on.
      It’s clearly a car people are waiting for, but it does not look like they want to sell it. Almost like the Opel Ampera..
      Maybe Hyundai loose money on this model?

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        There are three versions of the Hyundai Ioniq; a mild hybrid, a PHEV, and a BEV. Which version are you talking about?

        If it’s the BEV version, the Ioniq Electric, then Hyundai is facing much higher than anticipated demand, so there’s no reason to advertise. They can’t possibly increase sales for the current model year, since demand is already so much higher than supply.

        Hopefully they’ll ramp up production for the next model year.

  4. WARREN says:

    I got inside the clarity fuel-cell vehicle at the LA Auto Show. A very pleasant car to sit in. Rear seats were very luxurious and comfortable also.

    1. Nix says:

      Does it have a different interior than the electric version?

  5. WARREN says:

    Does anyone know what the plug-in vehicle percentage was for BMW sales last month? I will bet it was pretty high. Especially considering they only had a partial month of I3 sales.

    1. Chris S says:

      Yes it was pretty impressive: 15.3%! (BMW Group including Mini).
      YTD it is close to 6%

      1. Chris S says:

        Oops, that was wrong. 8.7% (BMW Goup)

  6. Mike says:

    Looks like 2017 will be the.first year that US EV sales top 200,000

    1. trackdaze says:

      Has to be a record December.

      1. Jean-François Morissette says:

        I think we can not entirely rule it out.

        1. bro1999 says:

          The dominos are certainly lined up to make it a reality.

          1. Quebec 100% EV says:

            …especially given all the fear about the Fed tax credit being repealed (whether warranted or not). I would be VERY surprised if we don’t see the 26,000 EV sales needed in December to reach 200k for 2017.

  7. Doggydogworld says:

    Jay – I’m curious why you said earlier that 200k in 2017 was off the table. We need 26,059 in December, only 5% above last year. The worst month this year was +15% or so.

    Leaf will hurt, but Tesla guided higher (a big chunk out of inventory) and Chevy should be higher. The rest looks like a wash, with some (e.g. Ford) being down but newer models like Clarity and Pacifica being up.

    1. Josh Bryant says:

      The 200k number might come down to last bust of Model 3 production (vs. deliveries). If they get them into customers driveways, maybe 200k happens. If the are “in transit”, probably going to be just short.

      We would be talking about being just short of 300k if Tesla could have kept Musk’s unrealistic deadlines, lol.

      2018 will be very exciting with volume Model 3, volume LEAF v1.75 and a full year of nationwide Bolt availability.

      1. Jay Cole says:

        Doggydogworld said:

        “Jay – I’m curious why you said earlier that 200k in 2017 was off the table. We need 26,059 in December, only 5% above last year. The worst month this year was +15% or so.”

        It’s probably going to be tough to match last year’s 24,785, let alone the 26,059.

        It could happen, but realistically, its not…here is what could/likely will go wrong:

        – we are likely to lose 1,000 sales from the Volt on lower demand

        1,800 with LEAF …as well, there isn’t any left

        -the C-Max did 1,300 in Dec 2016 and now its out of production, we could lose ~800 there.

        – the BMW i3 did 800 last year, this year we have the stop sale until ~week 3, so potentially 500 down

        Tesla did a massive late December US push to hit full year numbers in Q4 2016 (9,700), whereas this year they pumped out a lot of Q4 production early to make the numbers internationally in December…Tesla has guided to lower end of year production for Model 3, which means US volume ‘should’ be down fairly significantly yoy, lets pencil in a drop of ~2,500 units

        500e and A3 e-tron combined for over 1,200 sales, currently all the US inventory combined for those cars is about 600, so potential for 500 drop

        So if you add those up, we could lose some ~7,100 sales.

        And on the positive side:

        Bolt EV should be +2,500 over last year

        BMW iPerformance should add +1,000

        Model 3 is still a bit of a toss-up, but lets say when combined with the other new offerings (Clarity, Countryman, Volvos, C350e, partial month of Outlander PHEV and Niro PHEV) that adds 2,000

        – organic growth from other models +1,500?

        So if you add those up, you get about ~7,000 in expected gains…a slightly less than the expected losses.

        Could the US still do it? Sure.

        …but there is a lot of “one-offs” holding back sales in December that are virtual locks to happen, whereas the gains are more about assumptions. Generally as a rule, optimistic assumptions in the EV space for ‘timing’ don’t pan out. The lack of the new LEAF, and the loss of expected volume on the Model 3 and Outlander PHEV caused a swing of (conservatively) 10,000 units.

        1. Jean-François Morissette says:

          Really nice analysis Jay.

          Absence of the new Leaf, low availability of the A3 and eGolf are not helping, and of course the Model 3, and the last year push from the S and X that can’t be repeated are probably killing it.

          Do we expect the Prime to finally do over 2000? And get us a +500?

          Finally, I am not sure we have organic growth from all the comparable models, except those you explicitly detailed, and that is a problem.

          Meanwhile, in Canada, we are getting some real growth, from GM with record sales of the Volt and Bolt in the last couple of months, and we have quite high sales from the Ioniq, the eGolf, the Prime and the Pacifica. Market share for EV in Canada could exceed US market share. It seems demand is more limited in the US than Canada.

          1. Jay Cole says:

            There are some real wildcards out there that could help us out a lot, but I find it best to not count on those types of things.

            I would say they would include:

            Tesla Model 3 surge adding 1,500+ late
            – GM shipping more Bolt EV inventory (than we knew they had) and adding 3,000 over last year
            – the Prius Prime inventory has moved from ~1,500 to 3,500 over the past 2 months, but we haven’t seen the sales jump at the same time…but year end ‘could’ still surprise us if there is deman and add ~2,000 units
            – the Mitsu Outlander PHEV gets to dealers and notes ~1,000 copies
            – we expected Nissan to drop a few 2018 LEAFs in very late December, maybe they surprise and drop 1,000

            As for Canada…and being a GTA/Canadian resident more than half the year myself, it’s all about Ontario, and those plug-in offerings that are priced similar (after dollar conversion) to the US. Ontario dealers are looking for any stock they can find, as that $14,000 rebate goes a long, long way (as it takes the MSRP down like ~22,000 inside a lease).

            We might see Canada hit ~2% plug-in market share in 2018, but it’ll be more like 4-5% Ontario, 2% Quebec and .2% everywhere else.

            While the instant rebate (although its kinda slow to get a check in the mail if you don’t lease), is great…and a much better system for the individual than in the US with the credit system, it also shows as a pay-out line entry on the provincial budget, so I suspect it won’t have the longevity of the US fed credit. One can still hope for a national policy however.

            1. Jean-François Morissette says:

              And as you say, the “expected potential” surprises never go all in the same (good) direction at the same time…

              Any words on the IONIQ PHEV?

              And what about the INOIQ BEV, they are feeding us more in Canada than all the US, will it change in 2018?

              1. Jay Cole says:

                I’d put the Ioniq PHEV in with the Kia Niro PHEV

                …as in, they were supposed to show up this year, but they have yet to arrive, and their respective websites don’t even have listings/MSRPs yet.

                I really can’t say why more Ioniq BEVs have landed in the US over Canada, doesn’t make much sense to me at all, other than maybe there is a logistics issue getting them to dealers in the US, or a “one-off” delivery to Canada goosing the numbers. International production for the 2018 IONIQ BEV is going to ~900 a month, and I would expect of those, for the US to ultimately get 300-500 a month, and for that number to be reflected in the scorecard at some point.

            2. scott says:

              ” Ontario dealers are looking for any stock they can find, as that $14,000 rebate goes a long, long way (as it takes the MSRP down like ~22,000 inside a lease).”

              Not quite. Bolt MSRP in ontario is about $43000 (canadian $) The Ontario incentive is $14000, but you pay 13% sales tax on the full price, before incentive. So 43000 x 1.13= $48600 minus 14000 = $34600.

              I’m thinking about a bolt, but waiting for the Clarity PHEV pricing and release date to compare.

              1. Jay Cole says:

                Well yes, everywhere you pay tax depending on the provincial/state rate, in some places you pay a yearly tax thereafter (which you don’t in Canada), that doesn’t change the fact you get 14,000…no one is saying it is $14,000 + $1,820 to offset the tax.

                It’s an apples-to-apples comparison, every vehicle sold in Ontario has the same 13% tax, so it doesn’t effect the market share demand incited by the rebate.

                Also, I should note that you choose to lease (which most do), then you only pay the 13% on the leased portion of the EV, not the MSRP. This is why I note that the net effect on a lease is equal to some $22,000 less on MSRP, the Bolt EV will lease (monthly payment) akin to ~$21,000 vehicle despite being twice the price. In my neck of the woods (Toronto), you can lease a Bolt EV (provided you can wait for it to come in stock for) $289/month…there is only a handful of new cars out there (with auto/air) that lease for less than that, its basically the same cost as the Cruze.

                …the wider point is: If you are looking for a new vehicle, plug-ins are suddenly cheap (relative to the field) in Ontario

                1. scott says:

                  agree on the wider point. 14K is really moving the needle, especially on PHEVs, some of which also qualify for the full 14K. (over 17Kwh battery, 5 seater, I think maxes it out)

                  Not sure how the lease price can be as low as 289$ even after rebate, but I’m going to contact a dealer here and find out more.

                  Incidentally the dealer websites are mostly useless for pricing the Bolt, one I just checked doesn’t even mention the 14K government incentive. very curious.

            3. Jean-François Morissette says:

              I think it will be finally important to take into account the evasive Karma Revero in your EV stats now 🙂 Maybe it will do it !

        2. guyinacar says:

          Well done, Jay.

          Maybe we’ll get a toe over the line this year, even if we have to count exactly one Tesla Semi, a couple dozen Proterra buses, and a Roomba or two. 🙂

          Actually, a bit more seriously, 2-wheel EVs should arguably be counted soon, along with garbage trucks, forklifts, Torqueedos, ice resurfacers, etc. Every one is an ICE vehicle not built. EV ice resurfacers are illustrative, in fact. Many smaller arenas had to stop using ICE ice resurfacers because the air would literally turn blue by the time the Zamboni dude finished a few passes. Super unhealthy. Those non-traditional EVs won’t move the needle much in 2017, but by Dec 2018, maybe they will, in aggregate. Two-wheelers especially.

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            “Maybe we’ll get a toe over the line this year, even if we have to count exactly one Tesla Semi…”

            Hey! Tesla showed exactly two Tesla Semi Truck concept vehicles! I’m sure that will make all the difference.

            …wait, what? Only four-wheel, street-legal passenger vehicles are counted by InsideEVs? What party poopers! 😛

        3. Doggydogworld says:

          Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Jay. 7200 for US Dec17 (down 2500 from Dec16) would be really bad for Tesla. That’s 12,380 for US 4Q17 vs. 13,150 last year. They guided total 4Q17 to be almost +5000 vs. last year. So international Q4 will be +6000? Seems unlikely.

          Of course they might miss guidance again, but that 100k milestone is REALLY important, so I’m sure they’re gunning hard. They gave the sales VP a huge cash incentive to blow out inventory (which is way too high). They also guided to really low Q4 gross margins, clearing the runway for massive discounting. If they only hit US 7200 in Dec16 after all that……. wow.

          I’d think US 4Q17 Model S+X will be close to 3Q17’s 14,800. That puts US Dec17 equal to last year’s 9700. You are MUCH closer to Tesla’s numbers than me, though. I just don’t see how they’ll get anywhere near their 4Q17 guidance with your numbers.

          1. Jay Cole says:

            Hey DDW,

            I’m just throwing out those case scenarios, we don’t have any data at all to back up anything at this point (only a few days into December).

            The only thing we can say for sure is what we already reported on the last couple months, specifically that we saw international production expand earlier/greater than normal in September/October, and that scheduled December production for the S/X is being pulled back.

            You are already seeing the results of this in the past couple days…Tesla just dropped a ‘996’ in Norway for November alone (whereas for ‘month 2’ they usually register 200-300 units).

            So through 2 months of Q3 there was ~2,400 deliveries in Europe, and we are past 4,000 already in Q4, up ~1,600…if we extrapolate similar gains for Asia/Canada, then Tesla is likely ~2,500-3000 units up on Q3 results so far in Q4. Add in another similar month internationally, and we could be talking ~4,000-5,000 extra international units.

            If that ‘math’ continues, and given Tesla’s “about 100k” full year guidance, that would infer a similar Q4 to Q3 (as you point out).

            Q1 – 25,051
            Q2 – 22,026
            Q3 – 25,915 (ex M3)

            Tot – 72,992…leaving 27,008 for Q4.

            Then all things being equal, and provided Tesla hits its 100k number on the head, we would expect to see net sales globally increase by ~1,100 units in Q4, but if international is up 4-5k, that means domestic deliveries would fall 3,000-4,000 units.

            So our ‘assumption’ at this point in time is that their will be a pullback in US deliveries of the S/X in December for the US to get the Model 3 on track quicker…which Tesla compensated for by working international production harder in late Q3/early Q4. If they equal or best Q3 US sales, then they will be putting a big number up for global sales in Q4 (like ~30k+).

            1. Doggydogworld says:

              Great info about international, Jay, thanks.

              I suspect Tesla is shutting down the S/X line a couple weeks this month for some kind of changeover (new interior?). That would help explain why they built up so much inventory, which the numbers show is there but they never talk about directly. It’s all guesswork, though.

      2. Tom says:

        Chevy and BMW should have a big surge in Dec I would think. The tax rebate purchaser crowd. And hey if congress kills the tax credit, you’re going to see a giant end of month sales rush.

        1. Gas-guzzler says:

          Let’s hope all sales go to zero

          1. Per “Let’s hope all sales go to zero”… Did you mean Gas Guzzler sales to Zero? Yessss!

          2. guyinacar says:

            “…to zero”

            You do realize that many (maybe most?) BMWs are built-to-order, as custom/bespoke from the factory, right? There’s surprisingly little dealer plan inventory just rotting out on lots. So any new BMW PHEVs are likely to be subbed by each buyer for “clean” diesels that offer basically identical performance. Hard to tell from your name if you’re being tongue-in-cheek. Zero PHEVs would simply mean a lot more diesels. It wouldn’t mean many more BEVs. Folks are already purchasing all the BEVs they care to, given current BEV technology.

          3. Nix says:

            Gassy, clearly you got cut off in the middle of your post. Let me finish that for you:

            Let’s hope all sales go to zero tailpipe emissions EV’s.

            Fixed.

  8. Josh Bryant says:

    Cheers to another awesome month for Plug-Ins. We are on an awesome run.

  9. bro1999 says:

    Ok, where were those 7 Spark EVs hiding? 0 sales for 3 months, then 7 pop outta nowhere!

    1. ClarksonCote says:

      Maybe someone on the reporting side at Chevy had a sloppily written 1 they misinterpreted as a 7? 🙂

    2. Nebula1701 says:

      possibly on the back lot of some dealership and because of the Bolt they were finally able to convince people to buy!

    3. PHEVfan says:

      Most likely commands from Detroit to get rid of the rest of the inventory before EOY. So those with remaining inventory had to deal.

    1. Gas-guzzler says:

      People think that Model i3 is the new porsche

  10. Someone out there says:

    Very nice increase over last year! So I’m guessing that the sales in December will be a bit below 30k pushing the yearly sales just over 200k. That’s a decent >25% year over year increase while the car market as a whole is around 1%. Hopefully Tesla will get the model 3 sales going next year and then a bunch of competitors show up too, it’s going to be a wild ride!

    With “only” 25% YoY increase, sales will be 3.5 million in 2030. I think the transition will be faster than that when prices come down and range goes up so my prediction still stands that ALL new cars in 2030 will be electric!

  11. viatierra says:

    200k maybe not, but how about 1 million worldwide! BOOM!

  12. Dan says:

    I went to a Chevy dealer to check out Bolt. The roofline is blocking left view. So it is a no go for me. I hopped in a Equinox next to it, the ergonomics and view was much much better, so I will wait when it’s on line in 2019~2020.

    1. Dav8or says:

      I’m not sure what you mean by the roof line blocking the left view, but you know you can raise and lower the seats, so it may have been set too high for you.

      1. WARREN says:

        Sat in the back of the Bolt this weekend. Roofline definitely comes down on the side where your head would hit in in an accident. No wonder the test dummies hit it I the side impact test where the roof actually starts to fold up. The i3 is much roomier in the side roof area, and it’s roof doesn’t even begin to buckle in the crash test.

  13. Nix says:

    Looks like with the typical Tesla every-third-month sales bump in the US, that it will probably be a close race to a Model S/Bolt/Model X top three finish at the end of the year.

  14. =j says:

    Based on my own informal research, Chrysler could have sold a lot more Pacifica Hybrids last month. Any given dealer had at least a half dozen Pacifica Limiteds on the lot, but the Hybrid Limiteds were as rare as hen’s teeth. I may have bought the last one available in Houston, DFW, Austin, San Antonio.

    I would chalk the November numbers up to supply limitation; not the usual ignorant dealers.

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