UPDATE 4: November 2018 EV Sales: What To Expect? (Plus Early Sales Reports)

DEC 3 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 46

Does anybody doubt that November 2018 will be another chart-topping month?

November 2018 will mark the 38th month of consecutive year-over-year monthly sales gains for plug-in vehicles.

*UPDATE 4: Volkswagen dials it up with 230 e-Golf deliveries in the U.S. this November. In addition, BMW has posted its numbers. The automaker sold a total of 2,314 plug-ins in November, up significantly from last month’s 1,836 and up about one percent above last year’s November deliveries. BMW i3 and i8 numbers are in the chart.

*UPDATE 3: Mitsubishi posted sales of 376 Outlander PHEVs for November.

*UDPATE 2: As we said below, we anticipated some other sales would come in ahead of the preset date. Nissan LEAF sales are now in and are down slightly, even though November should be a breakout month. See details below.

*IMPORTANT: Continue to refresh this post, as we already have some sales coming in early. Being that December 3rd falls on a Monday, some foreign automakers may report ahead of the U.S. calendar time. We already have Toyota Prius Prime sales in, and we anticipate a handful of others reporting ahead of schedule. There’s really no way to know, but we’ll keep a close eye and assure that you’re updated.

Each month InsideEVs tracks all the plug-in EV sales/deliveries for the United States by automaker. The last four consecutive months are now the top four best-selling months of all time. In addition, March 2018 completes the list, meaning all five top months have happened this year. We have no doubt November will make the list, but where will it fit in? Is there a chance it could shoot to the top?

September’s results will be tough to beat since it’s so far ahead of the others. Perhaps we’ll have to wait for December U.S. EV sales to crown a new champion? But, that doesn’t mean that November sales won’t be top-notch!

Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):

  1. September 2018 – 45,589
  2. August 2018 – 36,380
  3. October 2018 – 34,094
  4. July 2018 – 29,514
  5. March 2018 – 26,373

As of the end of October 2018, an estimated 268,729 plug-in electric vehicles had been sold in the U.S. this year. We’re two-thirds of the way through the final quarter before the record-setting year goes into the archives. There’s a chance we may see over 350k EVs delivered in the U.S. in 2018 by the time the year comes to an end.

Check Out: Contributor Josh Bryant’s 2018 yearly sales predictions here

In November 2017, an estimated 17,178 plug-ins were sold in the United States. In both September and October 2018, we saw well over 100-percent gains from last year’s numbers. Will November be another repeat of this trend?  Will we see deliveries pass 34,500? There’s little doubt that this will be achieved. Over 34,000 EVs were sold in the U.S. in October, and November numbers are historically better.

Tesla likely delivered significantly more Model S and X vehicles in the U.S. in November than it did in October, and Model 3 sales are expected to be impressive as usual. All other models — at least as a whole — should see a 10-20 percent gain over the previous month.

Based on our initial estimates, we’re looking at over 40,000 electric cars sold in the U.S. for November 2018.

Keep yourself locked in and continually refreshing the pages throughout the coming days as we put the numbers to the dialogue. We will begin reporting EV sales Tuesday morning (December 4, 2018) and continue through the end of week. In the meantime, below are some questions to ponder. If you have a question you think deserves to be on our list, drop it in the comment section, and we may add it to the monthly report card.

What are your estimates? Please share them with us in the comment section below.

Questions entering November (with answers in italics as they come in):

  1. Will Tesla Model 3 U.S. deliveries rise or remain flat?
  2. How much was Tesla able to ramp up U.S. Model S and Model X sales due to the upcoming expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit?
  3. Did the Toyota Prius Prime finally make a significant delivery surge, or is 2,000 the new magic number? (Yes, Toyota upped its inventory and reported Prius Prime deliveries at an impressive 2,312 for November.)
  4. What do our estimates reveal  about Chevrolet Volt and Chevrolet Bolt EV sales, which seemed to completely flip over the last two months?
  5. While not incredible, 2018 Nissan LEAF U.S. sales have been solid in the 1,200-1500 range for eight straight months. Can the LEAF close out 2018 with a few strong months?  (Nope. LEAF sales were down in October and have dropped again for November. Nissan delivered 1,128 LEAF vehicles last month.)
  6. Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid sales have been impressive all year, but especially over the last two months. Can November deliveries set a new record for the Clarity?
  7. As far as we understand, Jaguar sold its first five I-Pace vehicles in the U.S. in October. Will November show exponential sales growth?

***InsideEVs’ journalist Wade Malone provided sales estimations and related analysis.

Categories: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, Mercedes, Mini, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Porsche, Sales, Smart, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo

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46 Comments on "UPDATE 4: November 2018 EV Sales: What To Expect? (Plus Early Sales Reports)"

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Benz

Total US Plug-In sales in November 2018 will be more than 40,000.

Benz

Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the US in November 2018 will be more than 22,000.

Ron M

I hope so

Allen

I am one of them 😉 Model 3 LR

Mike

Me too! LR DM!

F150 Brian

Another site just reported 32,000 for Tesla Model 3,S,X combined.

Milfan

22,000 seems to be on the high side, but if it happens and you throw a party, I am in.

Taylor Marks

It’s starting to look like Toyota might hit 200K EV sales in the US before Nissan does and be the third manufacturer to have credits start phasing out. Nissan certainly has a headstart – they’re at around 125K, but Toyota is at 95K and selling nearly 3x as quickly as Nissan at this point.

Of course, both are still moving so slowly that unless we see some massive upticks, Toyota is still about 3 years from reaching 200K (and Nissan is around 5 years away.) We’ll likely see changes to the program before they reach that point, rendering the 200K milestone pointless.

Emc2

Here is the count @ Oct 2018 for the next five carmakers to hit the 200K cap:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2018/11/30/gm-must-adapt-or-die-a-lesson-for-u-s-automakers/#94913902c2da

Ross Pursifull

I would like a monthly number published “percent of EVs that Tesla sold in the US”.

In September, it was 90%. In October it was 85%.

The typical Detroit engineer (my demographic) “Oh yeah, everybody sells EVs. I guess Tesla sells come of them.” Ummm. Tesla sells all of them.

Doggydogworld

Tesla sold 89% of BEVs in September, 67% of EVs.

drpawansharma

Now that Volt is dead, no point counting the PHEVs.

Doggydogworld

Almost 11k PHEVs sold in September, only 2k were Volts.

Spoonman.

Looks like you have the Leaf’s 1234 sales on the Volt’s line rather than the Leaf’s.

Eric Cote

The Plug in sales table has a Volt estimate but no Bolt EV estimate? Is the number reported for Volt supposed to go somewhere else?

Benz

A totally new and fully electric version of the Toyota Prius (with a 60 kWh battery pack) would be a good start for Toyota to join the EV revolution.

Just let the people decide if it’s a good EV model or not.

But surely it would put a reasonable dent into the regular Toyota Prius sales.

Apparently Toyota doesn’t want to capture a share of the growing EV market.

Too bad

jim stack

TOYota is stuck on Hybrids just like most other automakers are stuck on gas cars. If they are making money and there is not Oil crunck they will never change. Thank goodness for Tesla who only makes electrics.

Will

Not with that ugly styling.Probably next gen

ffbj
Meanwhile as evs go crazy auto sales worldwide decline rather harshly. Down all over place in October (yoy) with a few exceptions; Asia: -8.8% at 3.3m Europe: -7.7% at 1.5m NA.: +0.5% at 1.7m SA: Up 8% at 330k. More fodder for the peak auto theorem which these numbers are falling into line with, as have yearly trends, which continue to show declining sales, even in an up market and a worldwide economy that is doing well. So it’s accelerating, the uptake of evs and decline of non-evs. is my view. I used to get a lot of heat for espousing peak auto a few years ago, now not so much. Numbers don’t lie, unlike some executives, (read all) of auto companies. Though there are extenuating circumstances, WLTP in Europe, and a slow-down in China, the general trend would still be down, but perhaps not as much. In my opinion this decline, in the sale of legacy vehicles, will continue to accelerate into 2019 and beyond. Have a Happy Holiday. Extrapolating on this trend, there will be a further fall in legacy vehicle sales precipitated by the fact that cars such as Tesla makes and some ev manufacturers who are… Read more »
ffbj
Murrysville EV

I did my part by getting an Ioniq EV, buying it in a CARB state (MD), and bringing it into my non-CARB state (PA).

Mark.ca

$?

Milfan

Great. Ioniq has 136 MPGe which is #1 when it comes to efficiency and it has 119 cu. ft. of interior space which is 3 more than Leaf. 124 mile range should cover many trips. Still hoping that they will increase the production of Ioniq (Hybrid, Plugin & Electric)
Enjoy.

Milfan

So we will see November leapfrogging 300,000 mark. Waiting anxiously to see the sales.

Is there any info about that Karma Revero which has been on sale since 2017.

Spoonman.

It exists, has scattered dealers, and best anyone can tell they’ve moved a few hundred.

drpawansharma

Both March and July will fall off the list by this year end.

MTN Ranger

Will GM cross 200,000 PEVs this month?

rich

I think worldwide sales “Total” is wrong.

Ron M

There was a 52% increase from November 2017 to December 2017. If there’s a similar increase in 2018. That would be 66,000 EV’s sold in the US in December 2018. I don’t think it will be this high but I’d like to be pleasantly surprised.