Norway Nears 50% EV Market Share In September, Tesla Nets 2,000 Deliveries

OCT 8 2017 BY MARK KANE 31

New plug-in passenger car registrations in Norway – September 2017

Plug-in electric car sales in Norway reached an all-time high in September of 2017, with record 6,524 new registrations (up 43.3%) at a record 48.4% market share!

Tesla

Tesla Model S and Model X at the factory in Fremont, California

It’s amazing to see nearly half of the Norwegian market opt for plug-ins:

  • BEVs 3,850 (up 46.6%%, good for a 28.6% market share) + 1,053 used + 90 vans (74 new and 16 used) + 6 FCV
  • PHEVs 2,674 (up 39.1%, good for 19.8% market share)

The big surprise however is that the new record was mostly influenced by deliveries of more than 2,000 Tesla cars!

  • 1,007 Model S
  • 996 Model X

September’s result was Tesla’s best to date:

New Tesla Model S and Model X registrations in Norway – September 2017

Here is how we got to a 48.4% market share:

New Tesla Model S and Model X registrations in Norway – September 2017

And here is how dead diesel is looking these days (18% in September), while the average CO2 emissions in the country hit a record low 71 g/km.

New plug-in passenger car registrations in Norway – September 2017

Categories: Sales, Tesla

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31 Comments on "Norway Nears 50% EV Market Share In September, Tesla Nets 2,000 Deliveries"

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scott

It will be very interesting to see when all these EVs start to bite into oil demand in norway.

this article was a bit premature I think: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/07/12/norways-oil-consumption-rises-despite-42-electric-vehicle-share/

Ocean Railroader

My question is what could be raising oil demand in Norway. I suspect it’s some type of factory making logos or other plastic objects. Or maybe Norway opened up a new oil refinery that is processing oil and selling fuel products to the rest of Europe.

I think the ultimate test for EV’s would be to replace all the gas cars in a town or small city with EV’s and study how it affects the local gas stations.

Mikael

No, non-automotive oil use in Norway is minimal. It is the automotive fuel us that is growing because of more miles driven in total because of an increased number of cars on the roads.

You have to factor in that the percentage of electric vehicles of the total fleet is still pretty low.

For the other countries most of the oil cut is non-automotive. For example Sweden, that is mentioned in the article, has reduced the oil for heating but the automotive levels are the same.
So the Forbes writer is comparing apples to pears, a real hack-job.

And in 2017 Norway will see the first absolute reduction in oil use in the transportation sector. Exactly how many percent will we know in the beginning of next year.
Fossil oil in the Norwegian transportation sector is going down even faster because of biofuel implementation.

Indeed, the effect of plug-in vehicles in Norway to net consumption of oil isn’t a measurable metric to the whole at this point.

5.5% of the light vehicle fleet being plug-ins could account for no more than a ~2% reduction in net oil consumption…if the net light vehicle automotive sales were flat (which they are not)…provided all those plug-ins were BEVs (which they are not), and provided each of those plug-in sales displaced a petrol car and converting each of those former petrol kms to an all-electric one (which they did not).

Forbes notes a 6% gain in oil demand between 2005 and 2015, but that is a total angle-shoot in relation to an EV article (to say nothing of 2005 being a meaningless benchmark, and the huge EV sales post 2015 are not a part of that data pool).

Over the same time (2005-2015) Norway’s population gained 12.2%…so the net consumption of oil per capita went down. Nutshell: the electrification growth is fantastic, but it will take a few more years of 50%+ market share of plug-ins to be able to have a quantifiable effect on the net consumption.

Mikael

Just looked at statistics for the first half of 2017 compared to first halves down to 2005.

In 2017 the reduction is 0,6% compared to 2016. Not much but hopefully the start of a trend.
It is the only year it is down year on year since the last recession except for 2014.

Another couple of years and we should be able to see it more clearly.

But it also shows the extreme effort it takes to cut total fuel use by EVs.

Scott

Even just -.6% is a good start. And it should accelerate quickly from there.

A quick back of the envelop calculation. Say average ICE car lasts 15 years. That means about 7% turnover per year. If 50% are replaced by EVS, we could expect at best -3.5% drop in oil consumption from light vehicles. So maybe 2% drop overall year on year could be expected in 2018? (Ignoring a bunch of other factors like growth in overall size of fleet, PHEV fuel. consumption, rebound effect, etc ).

Mikael, Yes, I don’t think there is a good understanding of how much plug-in adoption it takes to displace even a percentage of oil consumption. Even to look at this year’s numbers in oil use (which are pretty significant proportionally speaking) and point to EVs as a direct cause I think can be a bit dangerous, as even the slightest of market shifts, or one-time ‘blips’ in a country’s demand profile can basically whip out the displacement cause by EVs. Likewise, it can also be a mistake to attribute the bulk of a drop specially to EVs – biofuel adoption being a good example of that recently. Again, at this point it is about the growth momentum and maintaining it, and letting those efficiencies also seep into the other segments using oil (which we certainly see happening, but with a couple year lag). It’s not 2011 or 2012 anymore, where the percentage gains were totally meaningless percentages. 2017 results are starting to have a (very slight) effect – I’d wager in the real-world it is maybe up to 1% direct displacement in Norway, ~.2% globally). However, the continued year-over-year strong gains from where we are today (50% yoy gains outside… Read more »
Just_Chris
Excellent discussion about the reality of the oil market and the amount of effort that will be needed to reduce oil consumption. The only couple of things I would add is that the oil market is completely in-elastic so if there is a 1% drop in use when everyone was expecting a 1% gain the price will crash. So although the impact of EV’s is small in terms of total drop in demand they might, if their growth is unexpected, have a pretty dramatic effect on profits of oil companies. The other things is, IMO, that EV’s change the automotive landscape. 10 years ago people were amazed how far you could go on 1 tank of diesel in the then “new” modern diesel vehicles. They were so efficient compared to everything else on the market. Now they look like gas guzzlers next to a modern PHEV or EV. That has a pretty dramatic effect on peoples buying habits. If a Prius or a little french diesel hatchback is considered average as opposed to ground breaking, then what is the average car buyer purchasing? I have no way of quantifying that effect but what is considered an acceptable mpg has been… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu

@Jay:

Thanks very much for the info! Very interesting.

How about writing this up as an article, for wider visibility? Please?

Some Guy

Don’t forget that Norway has a large fleet of small and midsize boats and ships (fishing boats and ferries), which consume a lot of fuel, usually diesel. Only a few were converted to be EVs, but the rest will follow sooner or later.
I don’t know about the heating situation in Norway, some places in Europe (especially in viliges) have large fuel tanks in the basement of nearly every house for heating purposes. Norway probably not so much, I guess the abundant forests should make good firewood for the wintertime.

VS

Private oil burners will be forbidden i 2020.
Just one more step.

eltosho

But those are numbers for 2005-2015. Way before norwegians started buying lots of EVs. They so outdated that there is no point to discuss them…

Mint

That delivery pattern for the last year and a half is hilarious. Always making a big push in the last month of each quarter.

I’m thinking that by the time the Model 3 production ramps up, they’ll stop this silliness out of necessity.

Fantastic result for the quarter, though. That’s ~5% of all Q3 cars sold in Norway.

Mikael

Hey Jay, how about we do a 2,5 year (halfway there) review of the 5 year review you promised me? 😛

https://insideevs.com/norway-cut-electric-car-incentives/

Imagine…this is pre-long range affordable EVs (Model 3, the real Leaf 2.0, Ampera-E in more than symbolic deliveries) and also pre-Toyota waking up.

Also while rubbing some salt… https://insideevs.com/north-america-remain-1-plug-vehicle-sales-chart-next-decade/

😉

Birger

Good one 🙂

It’s always hard to be looking into the future, but I must say your better than Jay!

Mikael

Until he finds all the stupid things I’ve said 😉

SteveSeattle

Imagine if GM had shipped enough Ampera-e to Norway to satisfy demand. What would those numbers look like?

Some Guy

I bet a good deal of the Tesla record numbers came from previous Ampera-e reservation owners, who were unhappy that their long range EV promised for mid 2017 would be available not before late 2018 / early 2019. So they went ahead and bought a Tesla now.
Germany, the largest market in the EU, hometurf for Opel, with several awards for the Bolt / Ampera-e and a high awareness of the car due to favorable news reports, got assigned around 100 vehicles, which is kind of a joke, and a clear committment to NOT wanting to sell the car.
In addition, the used BEV in Norway (>1000) is another record, and as those are mostly “1-day registrations” to circumvent EU emission laws in other countries, the BEV+PHEV marketshare has already broken the 50% threshold.
In other news, diesel ICE sales in Germany continued to tank, now over 20% less than last September (it seems to accelerate over the last months, despite desperate sales activities of the usual suspects…)

Mark.ca

If they didn’t have $80k for a Tesla S before the delay of the Ampera how will they have the money now? I don’t buy this argument at all. S shoppers don’t have much in common with Bolt shoppers.

Leaf2012

It’s not always about what you have, or what you CAN buy, it is about what you prioritize to buy. You may have the possibility to buy a Model S, but if Bolt/Ampera-e can do the same job for you, and fits better in you garage you may want to save som money and go for that. Then when you realize they werent that serious and you will have to wait for years you may want to go for the Model S instead.

Nor-Way

Next big update on Model S should be a trailer hook.
X have it and Model 3 will have it. Why not Model S?
I on the reservation list for Model 3,(And the new Audi EV suv 2018), but would at once go for a Model S if a hook had been optional, so I could sell of my Volvo V70.
Model S with trailer hook would boost sales big time in Norway.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Next big update on Model S should be a trailer hook. X have it and Model 3 will have it. Why not Model S?”

Because people buying ~$100,000 sedans, even “liftback sedans”, rarely use them for towing trailers. Tesla has little incentive to offer something so few people would use.

We don’t see a lot of BMWs and Mercedes-Benzes on the highway towing trailers here in the USA! Maybe it’s different where you live? 🙂

Mikael

It’s a lot different where I live, being able to pull a trailer is a necessity for any BMW or MB.

To put a bike-rack on, to pull a small trailer with furniture from Ikea (or where ever, but they even lend you a trailer for free), to pull a small trailer to get rid of waste from the garden or getting building materials from the store and a hundred other things. Plenty of BMW’s/MB pulling boats too.

What Americans use pick-ups for we do with small trailers in Europe (not everywhere, but in a number of places).

John

Model 3 won’t have it according to the recent tweet by Elon Musk.

Here’s a link to tweet that seem to suggest no towing for Tesla 3.

https://mobile.twitter.com/teslamodel3fan/status/916406647022596096?p=v

If it can’t tow, no Tesla 3 for me. Bolt lease is whole lot cheaper, but I can’t deal with all the damn waiting at DCFC. I’ll probably get a gasser instead of a plug-in.

Leaf2012

Where does it imply that Model 3 wont have towing capability?

Aleksandr Ksovreli

It makes perfect sense that Norwegians buy more and more electric cars.

I wonder what are other non electric 50% that Norwegians buy. Since it makes so little sense.

DNAinaGoodWay

It’s only a matter of time.

Go Norge!

Don Zenga

Bravo Norway. Seems this is the record high month for the country.

And super record high for Tesla. Norway will reach 100% plugins first.

Looks at the share of Diesel, it’s below 20% for the 1st time. Diesel is only for heavy vehicles, it should be completely eliminated in the passenger vehicle space.

Joaquin,

The gasoline consume in norway has down More than 50% .
I put a link until 2013 dates.nowo probable will be 70% down
http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Norway/gasoline_consumption/
So olí consume is diferente to gasoline consume ,that what they dont tell to put s*** on electric cars.

emesuv

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