Norway Leading Global EV Market With Nearly 30% Plug-In Cars In Q1’2016

1 year ago by Mark Kane 8

 Norway Continues Its Efforts toward a Sustainable Future, Leading Global Electric Vehicle Market, IHS Markit Reports (source: IHS Automotive)

Norway Continues Its Efforts toward a Sustainable Future, Leading Global Electric Vehicle Market, IHS Markit Reports (source: IHS Automotive)

New plug-in passenger car registrations in Norway – August 2016

New plug-in passenger car registrations in Norway – August 2016

IHS Automotive’s report on the expanding plug-in electric car segment identified the top eight markets for growth – Norway, Netherlands, France, UK, US, Germany, Japan and China.

In the first quarter of 2016, most plug-in sales registered in these countries were all-electric cars (63%), while plug-in hybrids accounted for 37%.

Without any serious competition, Norway is clearly the sole world leader in terms of market shar, as  29.5% of new passenger car registrations were plug-ins.

“Based on analysis of new vehicle registrations during the first quarter 2016, one out of every three vehicles registered in Norway during the quarter was a plug-in electric vehicle, reflecting more market penetration in Norway than any other major market tracked by IHS Markit within the index.

In a previous study from IHS Markit, one in four vehicles registered in Norway during the same timeframe a year ago were a PEV, which demonstrates the continued commitment to alternative propulsion vehicles in this country.”

BEV Registrations in France – August 2016

BEV Registrations in France – August 2016

2.2% in the Netherlands, 1.6% in France and 1.3% in UK also are significant achievement compared to average.

“The Netherlands continues to also be a hot market for electric vehicles, but has lost momentum recently and trails significantly behind – with just 2.2 percent share of all new vehicles registered there being electric. France is gaining, with 1.6 percent share. The UK is the only other market tracked with share of more than 1 percent, with 1.3 percent of all vehicles registered there being electric.”

US with 0.8% is ahead of 0.7% in Germany and Japan as well as 0.5% in China.  We should note the trailing nature of this survey, with the US hovering around 1% over the past quarter, and at almost 1.2% in September.

U.S. Plug-in car sales – August 2016

U.S. Plug-in car sales – August 2016

“Other key markets still remain below a 1 percent average in electric vehicle market share – with the US, Germany, Japan and China ranking further down in the index. While China leads in volume, with more than 32,000 electric vehicles registered during the quarter, its market share for EVs is just 0.5 percent.

Additionally, recent announcements by authorities there aimed at potentially curbing the number of EV manufacturers may have an even greater impact on overall production in the region. Likewise, the US also has high volumes, with more than 26,000 units registered during the first quarter, however, just less than one percent of the total market.”

In 2020 IHS expects average of 4% market share for plug-ins:

“In current forecasts from IHS Markit, it is expected that plug-in electric vehicles will account for just 4 percent of light vehicles produced globally in 2020, up from about 1 percent in 2016, when the company expects an estimated one million electric vehicles produced globally by the end of the year.”

source: IHS Automotive

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8 responses to "Norway Leading Global EV Market With Nearly 30% Plug-In Cars In Q1’2016"

  1. ModernMarvelFan says:

    With that kind of incentives, I would have expected it to be about 50%…

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      Norway also imports a high number of “used” EVs. Don’t quote me, but I think people title a new EV in another European country, get the incentive there, then import it into Norway and collect a second incentive.

      When I looked a while back new+used was close to your 50%.

  2. Rob Stark says:

    California has over 3% PEV market share.

    53.33% being BEV.

    Our overall car market is 2.1M units.

  3. Big Solar says:

    What would have come of tesla if they just built models S and X and built out the SC network even faster instead of such a huge battery factory? Maybe just do a battery factory 1/3rd the size for S and X and worked on getting the low end prices down . Say from 50K to 150K before incentives.

  4. Just_Chris says:

    I am always in 2 minds about stories around Norway. The sales are great, it is just fantastic to see EV’s selling in high numbers. But the thing that bothers me is that the sales are *only* 30%. As I understand it there is a 100% tax on new cars which EV’s are exempt from, it also has a good fast charger network.

    Cost and fast chargers are always mentioned in discussions around why there aren’t more EV’s on the road. Well in Norway the cost must be less for an EV than an equivalent ICE and the fast charger network is there so why are we only at 30%? Perhaps there is a problem with the number of models available and the range of the models avalible but even that seems a little weak.

    I’d love to hear from some Norwegians on why people are still buying ICE cars and which ICE cars are still selling well in Norway.

    1. Peter says:

      “and which ICE cars are still selling well in Norway.”

      Scroll down to the bottom here to see stats for car brands and models market share From January – September 2016: http://www.ofvas.no/bilsalget-i-september/category700.html

      You can see top 40 for brand market share [choose ‘Merkefordelt’] and top 20 for model market share [choose ‘Modellfordelt’], then click ‘Vis statistikk’.

    2. nor says:

      I’m going to list a few reasons here:

      The Norwegian currency has really taken a dive since the oil price went south, so Tesla sales has slowed down. In 2013/2014 a TMS was only a little bit more expensive than the typical boring gas car, but the difference is way larger now. We don’t have a flat 100% tax, it’s based on CO2-emissions etc so it stays the same regardless of currency exchange rates. So with gas cars only the base price (say 50% of retail price) leveraged by the 25% VAT changes with currency. With an EV 100% is affected by currency fluctuations.

      Far from everyone can charge at home, it can be a nightmare to get a charging spot in apartment complexes. Lots of people don’t even have a designated parking spot in the cities.

      I wouldn’t really call it a good fast charger network, 50 kW isn’t good enough to compete with gas cars and you might have to wait in line at chargers. Northern Norway is just now beginning to get something that even resembles a charging network. However, for Tesla owners things are looking better, but as I said, that isn’t a car for everyone.

      Obviously most of the BEVs available today are a joke. 24 kWh compliance cars without battery heating barely get 60 miles in the winter. You don’t want to go into the mountains with that, some people can’t even get to work and back with it. But of course this is improving and will get way better with Ampera-E, model 3 etc. There has been talks of VAT on BEVs from 2018 but just yesterday the government suggested delaying this until at least 2020, and that’s great for future sales.

      We love towing trailers, so that’s a requirement for many buyers. Also I don’t know how a family of four or more is supposed to comfortably fit inside anything else than a Tesla when it comes to BEVs with any kind of range. The typical Norwegian family car is a station wagon or an SUV with 4WD, i.e. not mainstream BEV territory yet.

      Psychology is a factor, many people like the sound of an ICE and like to shift gears. Battery degradation in early Leafs and i-Mievs has sparked concerns about longevity of battery packs. Also people say that when a BEV can go 1000 km and charge up in 5 minutes, THEN they will get a BEV. Long story short, many people are unreasonable.

      The most sold non-PEVs:

      Toyota RAV4, Auris, Prius and Yaris hybrids
      Skoda Octavia/Superb
      Mazda CX-3/CX-5
      VW Passat and Tiguan

      1. GSP says:

        nor,

        Thanks for your informative and well-written reply.

        I love watching Bjørn Nyland’s Tesla videos from Norway. It is such a beautiful country.

        GSP