North America To Remain #1 On Plug-In Vehicle Sales Chart For Next Decade Or More

4 years ago by Eric Loveday 23

In The US Alone, 95,842 Plug-In Vehicles Were Sold in 2013 - Add in Canada and Mexico and It's Over 100,000

In The US Alone, An Estimated 97,507 Plug-In Vehicles Were Sold in 2013 – Add in Canada and Mexico and It’s Over 100,000 (*Tesla monthly figures estimated as per quarterly result filings)

North America Is #1 In Pug-In Vehicle Sales

North America Is #1 In Plug-In Vehicle Sales…Will Stay That Way For A Long Time

According to Navigant Research, in its latest forward-looking article titled “Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts for North America and Select European and Asia Pacific Cities by State/Province, Metropolitan Area, City, and Selected Utility Service Territories,” North America is and will remain the #1 market for plug-in vehicle sales through at least 2023.

Per Navigant Research:

“To date, North America is the strongest market for light duty plug-in electric vehicles, with nearly 100,000 sold in 2013. Japan is a distant second, with just under 30,000 sales, followed by the Netherlands (over 23,000) and China (over 17,000).”

Navigant adds that, in the United States, 514,000 plug-in vehicles will be sold in 2023.

The research firm took a look at some individual cities too.  According to Green Car Congress, those findings include:

 

“The top cities for light duty plug-in vehicle sales among all of the regions examined in this report are expected to be Los Angeles, Paris, and Tokyo. “

“The Los Angeles metropolitan area is currently the largest PEV market by unit, with more than 15,000 PEV sales expected in 2014.”

“The Greater Tokyo area, with a population of over 35 million, is the largest metropolitan area examined in this report. While currently lagging behind Los Angeles, the city is forecast to become the largest PEV market in 2020, with over 35,000 sales in that year.”

By 2023, Navigant predicts that Los Angeles will be home to more than 250,000 plug in vehicles.  However, Tokyo will just barely surpass Los Angeles with with a predicted 260,000 plug-in vehicle on the roads of Tokyo in 2023.

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23 responses to "North America To Remain #1 On Plug-In Vehicle Sales Chart For Next Decade Or More"

  1. Alaa says:

    I disagree. Norway is the one.
    Plus Tesla is planning to sell 500,000 cars well before 2035 as this report says!

    1. Jay Cole says:

      Hey Alaa,

      While Norway appears to be on a different track than everyone else, the huge numbers are 100% driven by a large growth incentive to buy EVs and not ICE cars that terminates at 50,000.

      In about 8 months the program will expire and can be removed, then Norway will drop like a stone when it comes to EV sales.

      1. Mikael says:

        It’s not a program that expires. It’s a law that need to be changed to NOT have the incentives.
        So if they don’t activly change the law then there will be no change to the incentives even after 50k cars.
        And all parties voted yes to this law when it was implemented (except one party who voted no because they wanted the time frame and number of cars to be higher).
        There is a very big chance that they will leave it as it is.

        1. sven says:

          Norway’s EV incentive program will end soon because Norway’s oil boom is ending, making it’s Socialist welfare model unsustainable. The problem with Socialism is that eventually the government runs out money to pay for ever increasing welfare expenditures, such as Norway’s overly generous EV incentives.

          http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/08/us-norway-economy-insight-idUSBREA4703Z20140508

          1. Mikael says:

            It’s not an incentive program. And there is no problem having a socialistic welfare sytem without oil just like their neighbors Sweden, Finland and Denmark have.
            Giving everyone a decent life is possible in any first world country.

            1. TomArt says:

              +1

          2. Mint says:

            Norway’s oil production has been declining for over 10 years. People like you have been predicting the end of the Norwegian social net for ages, and failed every time. If they were going to have a problem, it would have showed up ages ago. Instead, despite the decline of oil production, Norway’s trade surplus is *growing* to new records.

            The reason Norway’s success is so baffling to supply-siders like yourself is that you ignore how important demand is for capitalism. You cannot produce if nobody is buying. The wealthy are so wealthy that they’re not buying/investing nearly as much as they are saving.

            The only solution to growth in the post-recession world is to empower the consumer, i.e. entitlements. Private debt (i.e. the wealthy save, and banks lend to the middle class) has been tapped dry, and we can’t grow it like we used to.

            If you cut all the Norwegian benefits and used a big chunk of it for tax cuts to the rich, the Norwegian economy would collapse. Businesses get gobs of revenue from the Norwegian lower/middle class using their benefits, spending their high wages, etc, and the wealthy would not make up for that.

          3. Adam says:

            Critical reading is an underrated skill these days.

            Norway has a huge nest egg because Norway doesn’t spend any of the oil money. Hasn’t for decades, that’s why the enormous stock fund they mention. The entire spending, welfare included, is financed of the non-oil economy.

            If all the oil income stopped tomorrow, it wouldn’t make a cents difference.

    2. jkw says:

      Norway will never be above the US in plugin sales. The population is only 1% as large. They are reporting total sales, not sales per capita. The US plugin vehicle sales were 2% of Norway’s population last year.

  2. Mikael says:

    North America are barely ahead of Europe and Asia will surely surpass both if not this year then definitely in 2015.

    If you look at individual countries then China will be number one in yearly sales within a couple of years.

    1. Jay Cole says:

      Hey Mikael, Ee: Europe

      Along the lines of what I mentioned above with Norway, 2013 was an anomalous year for Europe. So too for 2014 in some part.

      About 67,000 plug-ins were sold in Europe, but 23,000 of them (1/3rd) were sold in the Netherlands due to huge incentives that ended on Dec 31st. Of those 23,000 EVs sold in 2013, more than 15k of that (and 22% of Europe’s yearly sales) happened in just Nov and Dec during the panic to buy.

      So far this year (thru April) 5.8k have been sold in Netherlands, but only 2.9 if you take out the Outlander PHEV, who finally cleared out a back-log of orders the last month and a half; likely tracking about 50% too high on the Mitsu. Perhaps Netherlands ends out at 13k-ish ~ down 10k

      For this year, Europe has sold about 19k through March (compared to 26k for North America), but about a third of that is Norway at 6k…which is doing the same panic/ramp up to extinction Netherlands did last year. When the 50k is gone, Norway will regress considerably.

      So of the 63k sold in Europe last year, 32,000 came from 2 small countries with huge incentives…one of which is now expired and the other coming off the table soon. More realistic forecasts for 2015 sales in Europe have it about stagnant with 2013 (65,000-70,000ish) and below 2014 (85,000ish). Europe has been a lot tougher place to sell EVs than expected.

      Whereas in the US, there are no data subsets ‘goosing’ the numbers… and the product offerings that have been ‘+1’ing Europe for some time have not arrived on US data charts at all. ie) Outlander PHEV, BMW i3, e-Up!now make up 34% of all Eurozone sales through April.

      The US has experienced a steady consistent uptrend to date, and is expected to do about 130,000 this year, and 180,000 in 2015 with no foreseeable hiccups to Europe’s estimated dropping/flattening in 2015. Short of the federal credit being deleted in the US it is hard to see Europe passing North America at any point in the near future.

      Now if we are talking about China overtaking the US, depending on your definitely of what a “plug-in” is, that is a different story altogether, (=

      1. Rob Stark says:

        The US federal tax credit has a limit of 200k units per vehicle manufacture correct?

        No Auto Manufacture is close to the limit but when looking far out Tesla should hit that limit shortly after the release of the 3G sedan.

      2. Mark H says:

        Did the editor in chief just make his 2015 prediction?

    2. Big Solar says:

      Thats what I assumed too..

  3. CeeBee says:

    I think this only shows how US centric Navigant research is. Anybody with some international experience in this market knows that China will be NO 1 very, very soon.

  4. kimmi says:

    it will all depend on the sleeping giant that is China, for now it’s the third, fourth largest ev market in the world, with some 1700 units per month, far from the US numbers, but the growth potential is far higher there, so in five years from now things can get pretty close.

    1. Jay Cole says:

      Fully agreed.

      China may only be that ‘one perfect EV’ away from overtaking the US in the very near future, or perhaps even one incentive/government legislative change from making it happen sooner rather than later.

      Totally random and unpredictable there right now.

  5. kdawg says:

    North America…. hmmm. How many EVs have been sold in Canada & Mexico?

    And what is Navigant calling an EV? Anything with a plug? What about NEVs & scooters/motorcycles?

    1. Mikael says:

      Obviously not scooters/motorcycles at least since China sold like 30+ million electric two wheelers (bicycles/scooters/MCs).

      1. Mikael says:

        Last year.

  6. Spec9 says:

    It is a little odd considering we have such low gas prices compared to everyone else.

    But on the other hand, we built our lives to require driving so much so that contributes to our need for EVs.

    1. TomArt says:

      I was thinking the same thing – the appetite for cars in Europe, per capita, would presumably be far lower than NA, particularly the US.

      The same would be true of Japan, I would think.

  7. Surya says:

    If North America is the biggest plug in market, that’s mostly because it’s the biggest car market in the world, I think. But the incentives certainly don’t hurt.