Nordic EV Report Shows How Far Ahead Region Really Is

APR 6 2018 BY MARK KANE 19

The International Energy Agency released a comprehensive report titled “Nordic EV Outlook 2018” on the plug-in electric car market in the Nordic region (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden).

Those five countries lead the way in terms of plug-in electric car market share and, if treated as a single market, would be third biggest behind China and the U.S., even though it has just a fraction of population of the rest of the world.

In Norway alone, plug-in market share was at around 40% in 2017.

Nordic EV Outlook 2018 (source: International Energy Agency)

In total, some 250,000 plug-ins were sold in the Nordic region through the end of 2017, and some 4 million is expected by 2030.

Read Also – Denmark Plug-In Vehicles Sales Tank As Subsidies Vanish

Energy usage will then be 9 TWh, which is 2-3% of the total electricity needs for those countries.

Nordic EV Outlook 2018 (source: International Energy Agency)

“The number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Nordic region is projected to reach 4 million cars by 2030, or more than 15 times the number currently in circulation, according to the International Energy Agency’s Nordic EV Outlook 2018, a swift rate of deployment that can offer valuable lessons for rapid EV adoption around the world.

With almost 250,000 electric cars at the end of 2017, the five countries that make up the Nordic region – Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – account for roughly 8% of the total number of electric cars around the world. Norway, Iceland and Sweden have the highest ratios of EVs per person, globally.

The Nordic countries represent the third-largest electric-car market by sales, after China and the United States. Norway leads the way with a 39% market share of electric car sales – the highest globally. Sweden has more than 49,000 electric cars in circulation and accounts for 20% of the total Nordic stock.”

Nordic EV Outlook 2018 (source: International Energy Agency)

The plug-in electric car take off in the Nordic region stems largely from policy that makes them more appealing compared to conventional cars:

“This remarkable growth has been driven by strong policy support and ambitious decarbonisation goals, putting the region at the forefront of the transition to electric mobility. In this context, Nordic EV Outlook 2018 provides a useful benchmark and highlights a series of best practices – and hurdles to avoid ­– for countries around the world.

Policy support has significantly influenced electric-car adoption across these countries, the main driver being measures that reduce the purchase price of electric vehicles. Other important measures that have proven successful in Nordic countries include a cut to circulation taxes, or local incentives such as waivers or partial exemptions on road-use charges, free parking or allowing access to bus lanes.

In addition, support for the deployment of infrastructure has supported EV growth, in particular policy support for charging infrastructure. Though around 80% of EV charging takes place at home, wide availability of publicly accessible chargers can encourage consumers to consider the purchase of an electric car while also enabling longer distance trips.

The continued policy ambition across the Nordic region – demonstrated by commitments to decarbonise the energy system, targets for EV deployment and specific announcements on strengthening policy measures over the next few years – suggests that their electric-car fleet will continue to grow significantly. Norway, for instance, has a stated ambition to sell only zero-emission cars by 2025.

Despite their relatively large number, electric cars in the region accounted for less than 1% of total electricity demand in 2017. Given the resilient Nordic power grid, this small share of power demand has not caused issues for electricity distribution networks to date. By 2030, the estimated power demand to serve 4 million electric cars is expected to be around 9 terawatt-hours (TWh) – or the equivalent to about 2-3% of projected electricity demand. This increase will need to be addressed through demand management to limit the need for grid upgrades.

Nordic EV Outlook 2018 is a result of collaboration between the IEA and Nordic Energy Research (NER). Building on the leadership of the Nordic region in the development of policy support for electric cars, the report outlines the key factors contributing to successful developments and identifies key lessons to be learned, providing key insights for countries that are currently developing their electric mobility strategies.”

Nordic EV Outlook 2018 (source: International Energy Agency)

See full report here: Nordic EV Outlook 2018

Source: International Energy Agency via Green Car Congress

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19 Comments on "Nordic EV Report Shows How Far Ahead Region Really Is"

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You have to be smart to survive in a harsh environment.
This may weed out the science deniers.
Everyone then benefits.

-Cleaner Air.
-More jobs in the next technology.
-Less pollution, air and noise.
-Lower health costs.
-Better balance of trade, using local power, which creates more local jobs.

Sure … but not every country can be Norway, regardless what their political orientation is and how many deniers they have. Huge part of Norway’s status is the fact where they are located and what they have under or around them. Let’s not kid ourselves here.

Location of Norway with a cold climate is far from ideal for EVs. One of the keys is heavy taxation of petrol and diesel cars. This make it possible to give EVs an advantage withouth big subsidies. Taxation of fossile fuel cars is be possible for all countries. Although not easy if you have a car industry with strong political influence.

Well written in depth article that debunks a number of myths about ev adoption.

I was really impressed that the 2017, this level of EV penetration was only responsible for just 1% of electricity consumed…

Studies show that for Norway, a fully (100%) electrical car park would translate to 4-5% of national electricity usage..

But that number of course depends on average mileage driven in the country (a bit over EU average in Norway), and national per capitae electricity usage (way over EU average in Norway).

So i would expect up to 10% of electricity usage for an electric car park in many other developed countries, and way over that again in developing countries like e.g. India.

So electrification of cars seems to be easily done in developed countries, but might be a hard sell in some developing countries – at least the electrification of cars would have to follow on the back of the solar energy revolution..

I live in Finland and the situation is pathetic here even though we have a very green grid (80% CO2 neutral) and electricity is dirt cheap.

So that is clearly a case of people electing the wrong folks, unless most of Finns simply hate anything else than fossil based propulsion. Which in turn doesn’t explain the green grid …

Or what is your opinion, considering it’s true what you have stated?

EVs are way too expensive and range is too short especially in winter. The green grid has nothing to do with car propulsion.

You can look at the EV adoption data and compare Finland with Sweden. I’m not actually sure why EVs are doing so much better in Sweden. They must offer some extra incentives like in Norway. In Finland we do have CO2 based taxation, but it’s not enough apparently. Too few models and too expensive. Charging infra is non-existent. Etc etc.

The Swedish incentive for BEV:s is 40000 Sek (~4700$) and for Plugin-hybrids half of that. From july 2018 the incentive will be 60000 (~7000$) for BEV:s . I would guess that the new Nissan Leaf, with a price tag around 40000$, will be a very popular car. Especially since gas costs around 7$/gallon.

The key success factor in Norway is a partly emissions-based (also weight and value components) car taxation, with heavy tax rededuction for each gram CO2 below certain thresholds.

The zero emission factor leads to an e-Golf paying no registration tax (even if taxed as a gas car). Zero emission cars are anyway totally exempt from taxation, which also leads to expensive and heavy cars like Tesla Model S/X’es also not being taxed.

In comparion a gasolin version of e-Golf is taxed ~10.000 EUR. A heavy, expensive car like e.g. a MB e-class typicall pay more taxes than the import price, doubling the sales price.

In addition, all products sold in Norway are eligible for a 25% sales tax. Zero emission vehicles are exempt from 25% sales tax until January 1, 2021.

There’s a big difference on adoption of EVs and tax incentives across the region. I don’t think it’s meaningful to lump all Nordics countries together when it comes to EV.

Yes. Finland is as bad as Somalia.

Just curious with so many incentives for EV cars in Norway why 45% of new cars are still gasoline?

Are there any particular models of ICE cars that are extremely popular with is no electric alternative so far?

I don’t line in Norway, but the truth is that there are still only a couple different EV models you can buy versus hundreds(?) of different ICE models.

The typical Norwegian family car is a station wagon, and it has a towing hook. BEVs in the market now are mostly Leaf size without towing hook, or Tesla Model X. Guess what will happen when the gap is filled…

There’s years waitingline for cars. The situation is getting better when Audi and BMW, and Hyundai Kona get their cars on the road it will increase further.

The EVs are too expensive, or they’re not good enough. They can not tow, have a short range and so on. Check the EV sales in northern Norway, where there is only a handful of EVs, distances are long, very few people live there.
Immigrants from Syria wanted to go home, after staying there a few days. The winter is pitch black, it is cold, windy and it is not for everyone.
An ICE car is better there for the next few years. Unless you live in a village, and stay in that village. They may have to travel hundreds of km to get an EV serviced.