Nissan’s European Boss Predicts Electric Car Sales Will Account For 20% Of Automaker’s Total Sale By 2020

JUN 6 2016 BY MARK KANE 41

Nissan e-NV200

Nissan e-NV200

Nissan Europe’s EV Divisional GM Gareth Dunsmore said that by 2020, all-electric car sales could reach 20% of total Nissan sales.

It was already at 3% in the 12-months ended in March 2016, and hit 6% in March!

Of course to do that, the next generation LEAF that debuts in the upcoming 2017 autoshow season is going to have to be one heck of a showstopper, as the EV generational product cycle is about ~5-7 years.

“We believe that by 2020, where the market conditions are right, we’ll be selling up to 20% of our volume as zero-emissions vehicles.”

“If you look at Norway, that’s the case there today. In March, 6% of sales in the whole of Europe were electric vehicles — the Leaf and NV200. The tipping point is starting to happen, and it’s going to happen city by city, country by country.”

Dunsmore also announced that, step-by-step, Nissan will expand its zero emission offerings, which of course means new EV models.

Nissan originally intended to offer four EVs (in addition to the four offered by Renault), but after the LEAF and e-NV200, there has been a bit of a lull (to say the least), as the company decided to wait for 2nd gen battery tech before expanding further.

“This gradual pace of change means we’ll still build vehicles for everyone, but step by step you’ll see the electrification of the Nissan range and you’ll see us heading towards a zero-emissions future.”

source: Autocar

Categories: Nissan

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41 Comments on "Nissan’s European Boss Predicts Electric Car Sales Will Account For 20% Of Automaker’s Total Sale By 2020"

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“…by 2020, all-electric car sales could reach 20% of total Nissan sales.

“It was already at 3% in the 12-months ended in March 2016, and hit 6% in March!”

Three percent? Six percent!?!?

This is the best news ever on InsideEVs!

This is the second bit of data I’ve seen suggesting that plug-in EV sales in Europe are finally starting to enter the exponential growth we expect from a disruptive tech revolution. I fervently hope:

1. That this is the actual start of a real trend, not just a brief spurt of growth followed by stagnation, like PEV sales in the U.S./Canada from 2011-2014.

2. That the trend soon spreads to the U.S. and other countries.

Keeping my fingers crossed…

+1000, Best news of the week so far. World wide sales are growing much faster than in North America. Now we have to play catch up!

It would probably have been happening quicker in the US if they tax fuel like they do here in Europe.

70% tax makes our Petrol (Gas) $7-$8 a gallon currently and it has been as high as nearly $15 a gallon in the past here in the UK !

40-60 kWh batteries and also a cheap ~ 30kWh (for short range fleet customers like DHL) would double or triple sales next year, 2017 2018 to 15 % which would be 100.000 sales only for Europe. Then expand the range, electric SUV and sport car and 20 % are easy possible.

There will be no stagnation. It will be the other way around with increasing growth the closer to 2020/2021 (regulation time) we get.

Mitsubishi were at 20% EV sales in Europe last time I checked. Volvo are at 5% and growing fast.

It will be interesting to see how some car manufacturers will make their numbers though. We have seen very little yet from GM, Ford, Fiat, Mazda among others.

TOD-and-rail-and-renewables-seem-important

“Nissan originally intended to offer four EVs (in addition to the four offered by Renault), but after the LEAF and e-NV200, there has been a bit of a lull (to say the least)”
It is noteworthy that while Nissan did not come out with a third and fourth EV yet, Renault indeed did already offer four EVs to the public:
– Renault Fluence Z.E.
– Renault Zoe
– Renault Kangoo Z.E.
– Renault Twizy

What is “TOD”?

In this case maybe Transit Oriented Development.

If the new Leaf is as much of an improvement over the old model as the Volt was when Gen-2 came out.. The Leaf should sell well. with improved range, improved performance, and better bodystyle, it could certainly sell very well.

Agreed. 60 kWh is plenty for the range. Style is hopefully something like a mini version of the new Murano.

And most of all, hopefully some sort of Sport version to make full use of the 60 kWh pack.

This is why the Sunderland Plant will be the first to produce the nextgen batteries.

Remember throughout all of Europe, they pay the equivalent of $5-10/gal for gas. Paying the equivalent of $2-3/gal is a real bargain. I always wondered why PHEV/EVs haven’t taken off sooner in Europe.

That’s something which has also puzzled me, for years. I realize part of the reason is that most Europeans drive very fuel-efficient cars, but still I expected plug-in EV adoption to take off there sooner than it did in the U.S. However, it appears that over the past couple of years, PEVs have finally been showing significant sales in Europe. As I said above, I really hope this is the start of a long-term trend; the start of the classic “S”-curve of a disruptive tech revolution.

I can’t imagine that PEV market penetration will reach 20% in as little as four years, even in Europe, but perhaps Nissan’s PEV sales will.

And well, if I turn out to be wrong about an overall 20% market penetration by 2020, nobody will be happier about it than me! 🙂

Maybe because the electricity is expensive (at least in germany)???

Diesel price per kWh 0.11€
Gasoline price per kWh 0.13€
Electricity price per kWh 0.27€ (national average)

My diesel consumes around 5.5 l/100km (pesimistical) or 4.8 l/100km (optimistic).

At 1.1€/l current or 1.3€/l (max seen price in the last 5 years) that means fuel cost me 5.3 – 7.2€/100km.

If i take the Leaf as compare it is rated at 17kWh/100km. With the average national price you can expect fuel cost of 4.3 – 5.4 € (16-20kWh assumed).

Driving the Leaf i would save between 150 – 270 € per year (15.000 km assumed = national average)

Depends on what there are cheap night-time rates available.

I’d also expect that charge-it-where-you-park it isn’t as easy in many places.

With ICEs loosing ~50% of their energy to waste heat is kWh really the best metric to use without adjustment. Shouldn’t cost per mile/kilometer be used?

Read the whole post 😉

That’s quiet simple, until the bolt and model 3 comes out there has never been an electric car with a sufficient range to allow a fair balance between an ice and an ev, no matter what the gas cost may be. If you don’t have a compelling ev possibility, ev simply don’t exist.

I am perplexed as to why Nissan has failed to announce the new model. They’re already seeing “Osborne effect” loss of sales from the announcements of Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt. They have weak brand loyalty. So it’s not like announcing the new Leaf is going to make their sales drop any *more*.

Hmmm, I disagree. I think Nissan is making the calculation that announcing a new and more compelling plug-in EV will drive* even more would-be buyers away from buying the current Leaf. Maybe not that much difference, but still a difference.

For example, auto makers and dealers often use sales incentives to move cars which are slow sellers. The Osborne Effect would tend to put a damper on such sales promotions, wouldn’t it? At least it seems to me that it would.

*pun intended

No, it is because Nissan *doesn’t* wish to experience the Osborne Effect that it hasn’t proposed an interim model of imminent inferiority. As matters are now, the 2016 Leaf, which in my estimation is a worthy heir to earlier models, probably has suffered significantly poorer sales due to the anticipation of 200 mile-range EVs. So Ghosn has decided to take his best shot with the 2018 model. If Nissan truly does use, as has been reported elsewhere, a 60 kWh battery, all while suggesting a price more reasonable than either the Model 3’s or the Bolt’s, then things will become quite interesting, indeed. Meanwhile, that’s when I’ll be in the market for a used 2016 Leaf.

Where has Nissan or Ghosn implied a 200 plus EPA mile LEAF for less than the Model 3s base price of $35k US?

Cause that would be news to me.

2016 LEAF SV with 30 kWh battery pack and 107 mile EPA range starts at $34.2k

He presented the IDS & his comments regarding the EVs sold in China.

Agree! Get on with it Nissan, and don’t muff up!

Nissan is so behind the curve. I’ve been listening to Carlos Ghosn for the last 6 years and he talks a good line….but alas it was just talk

GM is kicking Nissan’s butt. It’s really pitiful. No wonder Jay bot a Volt 🙂

They are talking about the European market in this post and GM is not kicking anyone’s butt in Europe.

In Europe GM is kicking Nissan’s butt.

GM has 5.6% market share vs Nissan’s 4%.

When related to EV’s ??

EV sales have Nissan at number 2 and GM at number 9

Pl WORLD April YTD % ’15Pl
1 BYD 7.592 24.193 13 1
2 Nissan 3.323 20.446 11 4
9 Chevrolet 2.672 7.738 4 11

scott franco (No M3 FAUX GRILL!)

%20 by 2020? Perhaps for the auto industry, but not for Nissan. For Nissan, its heading towards 0.

Lol, no way Nissan heads near 0% in europe. They are still one of the market leaders…

They are the third strongest right behind VW and Renault overall. And the strongest brand intern share has probablly Nissan, maybe renault but i remain doubtfull, since only one models sells well for Renault.

scott franco (No M3 FAUX GRILL!)

“This gradual pace of change means we’ll still build vehicles for everyone, but step by step you’ll see the electrification of the Nissan range and you’ll see us heading towards a zero-emissions future.”

Thats the issue. This is not a “step by step” business. Its a revolution. S curves, rocket take offs, etc.

Indeed, well said scott.

Businesses are usually geared to gradual or linear market growth or market shrinkage. “S”-curve growth, and sustained exponential growth of new tech displacing sales of old tech, are difficult or impossible to adjust to.

‘If the market conditions are right’ – unfortunately by 2020 subdidies will probably no longer be available in the biggest European markets and here buyers tend to buy cheaper cars which could slow down growth a little bit. I do hope that Nissan can achieve 20% but I think it will be quite difficult to find so many customers willing to pay well over £25k for a base Leaf even if the range doubles. Maybe 7-8 years from now as battery costs fall further.

This could also be read as:

“If 20% of sales aren’t electric by 2020 we are going to get shafted by the emissions standard”

or

“Please buy our shares we have a plan for 2020 we are just not saying anything so we don’t loose sales on our current model.”

It’s good that Nissan is being successful in the EU, I can only imagine as the technology becomes more normal and cheaper things will increase. I think 20% is a fairly realistic and incremental improvement for Nissan.

You’re assuming that Nissan’s shareholders give two shits about electric cars.

Instead, they care about profitability and what their investment will look like in 5 years. They’re mostly looking at the R&D budget spent on something that hasn’t resulted in enormous sales. I bet a significant portion of them are actually screaming at Ghosn to cut EVs loose and focus on pickup trucks, because they are *the* top sellers in the USA.

It’s not *them* that care about these things. It’s *us*.

As a result of ‘dieselgate’ emission standards actually got … watered down in EU: http://www.cityam.com/233781/volkswagen-scandal-the-european-parliament-has-passed-watered-down-emissions-testing-legislation-which-could-contribute-to-thousands-of-deaths-in-london
There might be some other developments though like Paris or other cities banning diesels which would be interesting. It is also worth bearing in mind that Nissan has only 4% of the European market so them achieving 20% would not translate into a significant breakthrough for the sector as a whole. Hopefully with costs falling other auto makers will see the light by then and will want to have a piece of that pie as well.

From Norway we are seeing that when EVs are priced right, i.e. priced like gas cars, they sell really well. So that is what you need to do, Nissan. Lower the prices!

In Norway, taxes on gasmobiles are sky-high, with EVs exempted from most of those taxes. Sometimes the taxes and added fees add up to 100% of a gasmobile’s price!

It’s a rather stronger incentive than you suggest.

http://www.expatarrivals.com/norway/buying-a-car-in-norway

The bad news is that Nissan still want to sell 80% of it’s new models with an ice in 2020. Staggering!

The good news is that Tesla is and will be selling 100% of electric models, in 2020 and already in 2016.