# Nissan LEAF Versus Chevy Volt – Cumulative Sales Graph With Exponential Curve

4 Y BY ERIC LOVEDAY 14

You know we love us some sales graphs/charts/numbers here at InsideEVs.

This one, in particular, shows in graphical form the month-to-month sales of the Chevy Volt and the Nissan LEAF.

We didn’t stop there though. From the monthly sales total, we extracted an exponential curve of the results. This curve show that the LEAF is now surging above the Volt, despite the LEAF still being lower in total cumulative US sales.

Again (*and although we used the word versus in the title*), it is not* really* a competition; just some data points of interest. Everyone wins as more plug-in vehicles are sold.

Cumulative sales since introduction:

*Chevy Volt – 62,841**Nissan LEAF – 54,839*

You can also check out some more US graphing of sales, including the model-by-model breakdown so far in 2014, here.

**For more electric vehicle related information from Mark Larsen (InsideEVs contributor and provider of this wonderful graph), check out his website here.*

**Category**: ChevroletNissanSales,

Of course GM could be selling twice as many Volts.. Except we can see that GM and their dealers have little interest to sell them.

Part of this story is missing. While comparing LEAF to VOLT was common in 2011-2012, there are more choices when buying a PEV in 2014.

Since 2013, other PEVs have be introduced giving more choice, particularly PHEVs. Competition for LEAF is coming this fall with i3 BEV, KIA Soul EV, and MB B-Class; all 5-seaters with 80+ electric ranges.

The LEAF and Volt differ in a number ways that make comparisons to other PEVs now more relevant.

…………………… LEAF ……. Volt ……..

Number Seats: ….. 5 ……….. 4 ……..

Electric Range: …. 80 …….. 40 ……..

80% Time: ………. min. … hours ……..

……………………………… TOTALS ………….. Avg / mo ……..

…………………………….. 6 mo … 3 mo …… 6 mo … 3 mo …

Nissan LEAF: ……… 12,736 … 7,552 …. 2,123 … 2,517 …

Tesla Model S: ……… 7,400 … 3,900 …. 1,233 … 1,300 …

Toyota Prius PHEV: … 9,300 … 6,004 …. 1,500 … 2,001 …

…………. Chevy Volt: … 8,615 … 5,009 …. 1,436 … 1,670 …

Ford Fusion Energi: …. 6,235 …. 3,790 …. 1,039 … 1,263 …

The bold trend lines seem arbitrary. If created using just data to Dec 2013, the exponential trends would look very different. Instead of exponential curve; 3 and 6 month moving averages would provide more relevant insight into sales trends.

Instead of comparing LEAF and Volt 2012 style, it would be interesting to see PEV trend lines for AEV (All-Electric Vs) and PHEVs. Will the HPEV and AEV categories take on the Hybrid segment in terms of monthly sales totals in the next 3-5 years as the next generation of PEVs start reaching a broader market?

+1 on “part of the story is missing”. It is necessary to include every major player in this analysis, not just the top two.

Originally Leaf and Volt (and Model S) completely dominated the market.

Then the Volt got some competition from PiP and Ford Energi, which explains the drop in Volt sales.

So far the Leaf dominated the lower end of the BEV market, but I expect BMW and Mercedes will now start taking a bite out of Leaf’s sales.

And there are two Energi PHEV products. Ford has the highest sales recently:

A lot of people may also be waiting to see what gen 2 brings, seeing how it is getting pretty close to being real and is supposed to be ‘much’ better.

Vs a leaf, the only major change will likely be more battery capacity.

@Scott200 makes interesting point … re: Ford sales.

So by manufacture; the 2014 Q2 average monthly sales

Nissan ………………..…. [ 2,517 ]

…. LEAF: 2,517

Ford ……….……………… [ 2,191 ]

…. Fusion Energi: 1,263

…. C-MAX Energi: .. 765

…. Focus EV: ……… 163

Toyota …………………… [ 2,104 ]

…. Prius PHEV: 2,001

…. RAV4 EV: …… 103

Chevy ……….……….…… [ 1,861 ]

…. Volt: 1,670

…. Spark: 121

….. ELR: … 70

Tesla …………………..…. [ 1,300 ]

…. Model S: ~1,300*

————————————————— PEV Compliance Divide (1000+ /mo Qtr Avg) ————

Daimler (BMW/Smart) …… [ .. 691 ]

….. i3 REx/BEv: ….. 347**

….. Smart ED: ……. 344

FCA (Fiat Chrysler Auto) .. [ . 162 ]

….. 500e: 162

Porsche ……………….…… [ .. . 76 ]

….. Panamera PHV: 76

Honda ….…………….…… [ .. . 69 ]

….. Fit EV: ……… 37

….. Accord PHV: 32

Mitsubishi …………….…… [ .. . 23 ]

….. i-MiEV: 23

notes:

* est. until Q2 numbers released

** 2/3 mo’s US availability

lol bmw is not dai

i3 is not a 5 seater. More REx are apparently being built than BEV. So, expect Volt to have more competition than Leaf.

Both i3s get over 70 miles electric so I would think it would mainly be a LEAF competitor. People just like to be able to drive without worries of range no matter where they live and what time of year. Plus (beside REx) with a temp managed battery system it has that advantage over the LEAF.

i3 EPA http://insideevs.com/bmw-i3-rex-official-epa-ratings-electric-range-72/

Ratio of REx to BEv is in range 1.3:1 to 1.8:1 for recent deliveries and orders. Without a breakout from BMW in montly i3 sales, we’ll hav to rely on registertion data, or forums going forward.

The ratios were report as 4:3 (1.3) and 9:5 (1.8) recently based on VIN data.

http://insideevs.com/bmw-i3-us-salesproduction-numbers-rex-bev-ratio/

YTD by Manufacturer:

Nissan #1: 12,736

Ford #2: 11,059

Toyota #3: 9,846

GM #4: 9,641

Ford just made it’s Energi lease deals a little better so should be over 3k again with plug-in sales for July.

Toyota just went up quite a bit on the price of the Prius plug-in lease, so should hang below 1k for July.

So GM should move ahead of Toyota in July with Volt, Spark EV and ELR sales.

YOur curve fitting program is horible. How you get an exponetial curve frome that data is beyond me.

Volt is the only way to go if you are looking for an all round EV! What do you do with a Leaf if you need to travel 150 miles one way? Stop and charge and wait? Or rent an ICE. In a Volt, if you need to take a long weekend getaway you just drive.