Nissan Expects 20% Of Its European Sales Will Be EVs By 2020

JUL 12 2017 BY MARK KANE 82

Nissan must be pretty sure of finding success with the next generation 2018 LEAF (which debuts in September), as the Japanese company expects that up to 20% of its new auto sales in Europe to be zero emission in just 3 years time.  Nissan has also stated that two more all-electric vehicles will arrive between now and the end of this decade.

The pending arrival of the new 2018 Nissan LEAF has had little effect on current generation sales…thanks to some deep discounting!

The statement on EV sales in Europe comes from Gareth Dunsmore, Electric Vehicle (EV) Director for Nissan Europe, after the French environment minister hinted at end of gas and diesel sales entirely by 2040.

“By 2020, where the market conditions are right, I’m confident we’ll be selling up to 20 percent of our volume as zero emissions vehicles and this will only grow,” Dunsmore via Reuters.

What does 20%  mean for Nissan in raw sales?

Well, in fiscal year 2016 Nissan sold 735,725 vehicles in Europe, so 20% of that would be more than 147,000 EVs! That’s a lot, but if the new LEAF is reasonably priced, and the new offers are competitive, then it also seems doable at the same time.

As for those “other” offerings:  Freshly minted Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa has said his company will bring two new all-electric vehicles to market over the next two years, while recently retired Nissan Chief Engineer Shiro Nakamura gave some background on what those new EVs might be, as he said Nissan plans for a BEV sedan and a utility vehicle.

In 2016 Nissan sold some 23,000 EVs (18,500 LEAFs and less than 4,500 e-NV200).

But what do we really like about this 20% figure Nissan is putting out there?  It’s the fact that Nissan isn’t just talking about a new EV to being introduced in 2020, or an ambitious fleet goal set for so far away that they can’t be accountable for it (like 10 years from now)…but one that is only some ~30 months away.

source: Reuters

Categories: Nissan

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82 Comments on "Nissan Expects 20% Of Its European Sales Will Be EVs By 2020"

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That seems unlikely. But I do appreciate them preparing for such an aggressive goal.

If they can increase sales 59% YoY for the next 4 years, they will hit their goal.

Neither Nissan nor Renault will reach any of their stated goals, that is, until they decide to offer fully electric versions of their best selling cows, Qashqai and Captur respectively. Without that 7% is what I give them, at best.

Sounds like they’re putting their Leaf’s all in one basket.

Do they have battery contracts for anywhere near that amount? Wish them luck!

They have their own battery company so they control it. Yes they recently ‘sold’ a controlling interest to a Chinese firm but that only adds to sales not subtract. There’s no intention to move away from themselves as a supplier. The Chinese investment was so that they receive special treatment in the Chinese market and allows for quick market penetration there. There has been no statement of moving away from internal battery supplies much to the contradiction of certain statements in this forum.

It has been widely reported that Nissan is largely moving, or already has moved, from making its own battery cells at its subsidiary AESC, to buying them from LG Chem. In particular, it is reported that the next-gen Leaf will have a battery pack (or at least the cells inside) made by LG Chem.

May I ask just what your source is for saying all these reports are wrong? And is your source more authoritative than everybody else’s sources?

And now I’ve even posted my response to you in the wrong thread. My original response was also to you.

Oh and ‘widely reported’ by this forum does not count nor do links to crappy blogs creating speculation. There are no facts to substantiate the claims or at least none that have been offered in this forum.

Better, they have large factories.

The more interesting question is: “How many Nissan Leafs will they be able to sell in 2018?”

Or how many other EVs do they have they haven’t talked about yet?

It’s going to be hard to reach a sales figure that high with just the current models they have. They have a lot more in Europe than in the US but they still all fill nearly the same market niche, small hatches.

From the article: “Nissan has also stated that two more all-electric vehicles will arrive between now and the end of this decade.”

Then add in Mitsubishi and Renault.

The three are going to kill it together.

I guess I didn’t write my post well. What I meant was the interesting question is “When are they going talk about the other cars they are going to introduce to make this possible?” Or actually, really more precisely “What are the details on the other cars they are going to introduce to make this possible?”

To CLIVE: I was including Renault. Nissan doesn’t have more EV coverage in Europe than the rest of the world if you don’t count Renault.

I still don’t see how it’s possible. Even in Western Europe it’ll be difficult and in Eastern Europe it’s a complete dream. Probably in Southern Europe too.

If they focus hard enough there chances are better than zero.

Based on the ridiculously high success of the e-Note in Japan becoming the NUMBER ONE selling car in Japan overnight beating out the champion Prius, my initial guess is that they will offer a PHEV version and also a BEV of the same vehicle very soon. It would also be my estimation that the new Leaf platform is extensible to a Rogue-like AWD SUV and that this vehicle could be rolled out by mid 2018. And I will just go out there and say on record that if Nissan can deliver a 200 mile BEV Leaf hatchback for $30,000 and brings the tech up to speed, they will sell a bunch of them. More than Chevy for sure.

The E-Note is not a BEV, it’s a hybrid. A normal hybrid. It has nothing to do with anything. It has ICE range because it is an ICE car. It has that range without a large battery because it is an ICE car. People can buy it even if they have no way to plug-in because it is an ICE car.

It tells us nothing at all about how BEVs (or FCEVs) would grow to 20% of Nissan vehicles sold in Europe by 2020.

The Note is a big succes in Japan because it is NOT a normal Hybrid. It is a serial hybrid. There is a big architectural difference between a normal hybrid and a serial hybrid.

About the only things the two have in common is that both have a tailpipe and neither have a plug.
It is like saying a diesel engine and a sterling engine are the same because both accept fuel and have a tailpipe.

Customers don’t care about architectural differences in hybrids. It doesn’t matter what the architectural difference is, that’s nothing to do with the success of the car.

And no internal change in relation to how the gasoline ends up spinning the wheels indicates that BEVs are now easier to sell as replacements for gasoline/Diesel fueled cars.

“There is a big architectural difference between a normal hybrid and a serial hybrid.”

GM originally claimed the Volt is a pure serial hybrid, and only after it went on sale did they admit that sometimes the gas engine provides direct power to the drivetrain.
As Unlucky said or suggested, I doubt the average buyer cares that much about the exact workings of what’s under the hood.

Either way, whether it’s a serial hybrid or a combined (serial/parallel) hybrid, if it’s not a PHEV then it gets all of its miles by burning gasoline. Being a non-plug-in serial hybrid may make it a more efficient car, but it doesn’t help at all in moving the world away from burning fossil fuels.

Besides being factually incorrect about not helping move away from oil, my original comment on the e-Note is pointing out that the design of the e-Note drivetrain allows Nissan to extend this drivetrain to a pure BEV version of the e-Note rather quickly if they desire and I am offering that my opinion is that they will do this and release a BEV version in the not so distance future.

In Europe small hatches IS the market. And the growing market is CUV/SUV, like the rest of the world.

If Nissan was in the sedan market, it would have been a problem.

By the way, Nissan has created the compact SUV market that is now so popular with its Nissan Qashqai. They’ve also educated the market wit the urban SUV segment –> Juke

I have big doubt they would not introduce an electric SUV.

No they didn’t. The Honda CR-V came out in 1997. Qashqai? 2006. They didn’t create the compact CUV market.

I’m talking about creating the market. Not about being the first to create a product.

WE could say the same for Apple with iTunes or iPhone.

I’m talking about the influence and the definition of the market

CR-V wasn’t first to create a product. The Pontiac Aztek was the first crossover. There were 4-door small SUVs before even that with the Chevy S-10s.

The CR-V and RAV4 were hugely successful. They made the market before Nissan jumped in.

You are correct Joe, as eamples, both Honda and Toyota are now competing with the Juke, with the new HR-V and the new C-HR.

A market segment made popular by the Juke.

The CR-V is the comparable to the Juke, as it’s much bigger. It’s the new Honda HR-V which is the competitor to the Juke.

*Not* comparable!

Likely more than double 2017. In other words about 250,000 and probably more than Tesla. Two factors:
1. New Leaf and since the old one will exceed 100,000 sales in 2017, one would expect a new one to take off.
2. By selling a chunk of their battery division to a Chines firm, they will get special treatment in China which will accelerate their growth there significantly in 2018.

If the upgraded renault zoe is a guide they will sell double the prior year in 2018.

I forgot about Renault and also Mitsubishi. I think the 3 should basically get counted together. Presumably Mitsubishi will update the Outlander again in a year and I’d expect Mitsubishi to launch (re-launch rather) a car. I kinda liked the idea of the i-Miev. If the Leaf and the M3 have a bottom entry of $30,000 then a more stripped down eco compact that came in around low 20s would be exciting.

They operate as three completely independent companies. Because that is what they are.

It is not like GM or VAG, a single company with different brands and labels.

If the iMiEV got even a base LEAF like, 24 kWh Battery upgrade, it might well have reached the 100 Mile Per Charge territory, but instead, they are just dropping it!

If they offered a two Battery choice, 16 kWh or 24 kWh, and dropped the 16 kWh price to $24,995, with the 24 kWh option for just $28,995 – they could keep it in the game!

It was a cute little Jelly Bean of a car! Just a few too many $ for what it offers, inspite of being one of the first EV’s to include DC QC in its base model, I think.

If Nissan execs really believe those sales numbers then they should be building a big battery factory, or signing a big contract so an existing battery manufacturer can greatly expand their facilities starting NOW!

What tells you they have not.

Nissan is going to continue to lead.

Both Tesla and BYD have advertised their large battery-making facilities. It is a way of inspiring confidence in their customers and investors.

I would expect Nissan to back up their car production claims with proof of their battery production capabilities.

Give them a little time to reveal, it was’t to long ago they decided they were getting out of making batteries and were going to buy them from somebody else.

You don’t just decide to do that, until you have run the math and cut and signed a deal.

They will buy from LG chem like Renault currently and Mitsubishi in the near future

You can’t hide large commercial construction projects, and you can’t hide hiring the thousands of workers which would be needed at a few very large factories or a larger number of merely large factories.

The saying “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” is a sound scientific principle, but does not apply here. Absence of evidence is evidence of the absence of either Nissan or LG Chem, or Samsung, moving to rapidly increase the rate of growth in battery cell production over the next three years.

Who is rapidly expanding battery production? Panasonic/Tesla, and BYD. Do you think they will sell their batteries to Nissan? Well, I do not. Panasonic/Tesla and BYD will use their batteries in their own cars.

LG and Samsung are building huge cell factories in Europe. One in Poland and one in Hungary. I think there will be enough supply in the next years to come.

It’s funny how you think vertical integration is such a positive. If vertical integration is so great, why don’t more companies do it (Apple?, Amazon?)? If the demand isn’t there those large factories could wind up becoming a huge liability. And don’t think for one second that Tesla, BYD, LG or anyone else won’t sell there batteries to the highest bidder. The goal of a company is to make money. And if they can make more money with less risk selling batteries, that’s what they’ll do.

Nissan has 3 (THREE) large battery cell factories.
They expected to sell between 250,000 and 500,000 Leafs around 2014-2015 and build the battery factories to support those sales.

Those factories became never fully operational, but they are the only carmaker beside Tesla who has zero concern about battery supply.

You would think so… but then you are assuming that they will make all the cells themselves and not buy them from a third party like say… LG Chem … instead.

I am guessing a 60 kWh will not come for a year, and when it does it will be cell supply constrained. 😉

They are very pragmatic. If another can undercut the price, they will buy those batteries. But they will not face the problems of the GM-Bolt, limited car production because of a too small battery factory by their only supplier.

No car company can buy cells on the spot market. There’s just too much risk. They will have to get battery contracts just like GM. And the number of cells they get will be related to how many they contract for just like GM.

If they want a lot and contract for them in advance, they’ll get them. Same as GM. If they don’t want a lot and don’t contract for them, they won’t get a lot. Same as GM.

Sounds to me like they have the flexibility to do either.

“Nissan has 3 (THREE) large battery cell factories. “They expected to sell between 250,000 and 500,000 Leafs around 2014-2015 and build the battery factories to support those sales.” If I recall correctly, it was reported that those battery factories were running at about 40% capacity when the Leaf was at maximum sales, about 60,000 per year worldwide, altho to be fair they were also supplying batteries for other vehicles. Ramping up from 3% of sales in Europe to 20%… well, let’s just say that Nissan would need a lot more than those three factories if they were going to make their own battery cells. Elon Musk said the world would need something like 200 battery Gigafactories to switch all the gasmobiles over to plug-in EVs. That’s the scale we’re talking about. By comparison, Nissan’s 3 battery factories were a drop in the bucket. 60,000 Leafs per year out of a market of 88.1 million cars and light commercial vehicles sold worldwide in 2016… that’s not much at all. Reports are that Nissan will be using LG Chem cells in the next-gen Leaf, and it is selling or has sold off its battery factories to some company in China. Unless those… Read more »

“…they should be building a big battery factory, or signing a big contract so an existing battery manufacturer can greatly expand their facilities starting NOW!”

Ya think?

It takes about two years to build a factory and fine-tune it for mass production. Nissan can’t wait until only 2 years before they need to be producing long-distance EVs in large numbers, because it also takes time to ramp up automobile production.

Yeah, if Nissan is serious about this prediction, then they need to start moving in the direction of securing a large battery supply NOW.

I don’t think they are serious.

It depends on what you are building. But if you have any kind of advance warning you should be able to build and fine tune a cell factory in a year. If you’re just replicating the work you’ve done at another factory (same product built in a similar fashion) you can do it even quicker.

For something as complicated as a full car, one year might not be enough. For something as simple as a li-ion cell it is.

As I recall… the Nissan battery plants were buying rolls of battery materials from the AESC plant (the one they sold recently) so from there they were slitting and cutting the rolls into cells which were further grouped into modules and then into the under car cases of the complete 24 or 30 kWh packs. I would guess they can get a better deal than GM since they are experienced at assembling and configuring their own packs. Source the cell materials from the company offering the best results for the buck… assemble them yourself (saving some more bucks ideally) and maintain your own inventory of packs ahead of need. Seems like a sound plan to me. Eagerly awaiting the final specs for the New LEAF.

Yeah, because clearly Nissan is incapable of predicting how many batteries they will need in the future, but you on the other hand seem to know. How do you cope with such wisdom? Sheesh.

They need an electric Murano.

It will be an Electric Rogue

It will be a junk…i mean junk…damn it…meant to say juke.

Sometimes, you make me just want to Juke!
“Nissan innovation that EVites”

Drinking to much Beer and other drinks, then Eating a Banana, made my old coworker (Rhymes with Juke, and just as ugly!).

I sure hope it is the Rogue/Qashqai since that is roomier and more comfy than the Juke. Ideally they are setting up the whole line of all their vehicles to have the EV option in the powertrain department. That would make a lot of sense and get out well ahead of VW and Hyundai or GM.

With 64 sales of the Murano last year that will hardly help electrifying.


They might just get into triple digits next year, if they keep increasing their robust Murano sales trajectory!

It sold 603 in 2015 so… following the trend of a 88,4% YoY drop they would almost hit 7 Muranos sold in 2017. 😛

They could breathe new life into the Murano if they offered it with a 75kWh battery to go at least 200 miles AER.

I’ve been saying for 3 years they should have made an electric Xterra….too late now.

Maybe not a full BEV, but a PHEV OR EREV, With 50+ Miles of EV Range, and a 200+ Hp Electric Motor Drive!


This will not be hard IF the next two BEVs are of the 200+ mile range and being the models Qashqai (over 40% of Nissans european car sales) and the Juke (just under 20% of Nissans european car sales).

As long as they are not counting potential e-Power models with zero chargeable range.

Grr I actually own 3 Nissan Leafs but 1 more EV announcement like this and I will boycott them.

Lost count of how many frivolous Nissan EV related announcements there has been.

It’s not impossible but they will have to get quite aggressive on performance and price. Go big or go home!

20% in their dreams.
The realistic goal for 2020 would be ~6% in my opinion.
But I hope a 7.5%, if the Leaf II with 50kWh and with a price tag about ~25.000€ including all tax, and with a 100kW DC charge.
With a Leaf II at 30,000€ or more it will be impossible to reach 6%.

Jumping from, ~3% of sales in Europe in 2017, to 20% only 3 years later?

It would be wonderful to think this will actually happen, but I can’t see how it possibly can. Is Nissan even physically capable of ramping up its long-range plug-in EV production in such a short time?

And even if they could, where would they get the batteries? Nissan has largely abandoned its own battery factories; it’s going backwards!

If they did, where would people charge them?

Even if we think well-off Western Europe can lay in infrastructure fast enough to sell 20% BEVs 3 years from now the less well-off parts of Europe won’t do so.

Realistically the only way this can happen is if Nissan cuts their ICE sales down so that BEVs become a larger percentage.

If Nissan could somehow get this to 12% in this timeframe, even disregarding non-passenger vehicles (i.e trucks, but I don’t mean crossovers) then I would be dancing on my chair.

“If they did, where would people charge them?” At home or at work, of course. It gets a bit tiresome seeing so many EV enthusiasts obsessing over DCFC stations. EVs were around before there were any of those, and according to one survey, 55% of PEV (Plug-in EV) owners say they have never — not once — used a public EV charger. Even if the potential market were restricted to 55% of potential buyers, that would still be quite sufficient to reach a 20% market penetration. “Even if we think well-off Western Europe can lay in infrastructure fast enough to sell 20% BEVs 3 years from now the less well-off parts of Europe won’t do so.” Any place which has electricity can charge an EV. The obsession over the difficulty of running a power line or extension cord the last 100 feet or so from the house to the parking lot or to the curb… that’s going to fade away as people get used to the idea of EVs being commonplace. It’s as silly as prospective Model T buyers wringing their hands over the lack of parking places in cities. Demand for EV charge points in parking lots and at… Read more »

I genuinely do not think charging will be a problem, I have never used one and charge at home, they are now making all major petrol (gas) stations put them in here in the UK, I imagine this will get rolled out all over Europe too.

The talk of using street lamp posts being converted is the next thing on the list.

I’m not obsessing about DCFC. I’m speaking of infrastructure in general. So stop making yourself tired and trying to blame it on me. If I meant DC only I would have said DC. “House to the parking lot or curb”? Who do you think it is who buys EVs? It’s not people in the countryside, it’s people in cities and suburbs. They are less likely to have houses. They are less likely to have charging at work. Europe is no more uniform than the US is. We frequently think of areas with higher standards of loving like France or the UK. But as you move South and East the income levels drop. People buy more used cars. They buy cheaper cars. And the governments have less money to spend on incentivizing AC charging, whether at a lamppost or elsewhere. When I say London, think of New York. When I say South or East, think of Greece. Or think of Alabama. Greece doesn’t have two nickels to rub together. They’re not going to spend money on infrastructure, AC or DC. Know how EVs are taking off in rich areas in the US and not in Alabama? Same in Europe. Those areas… Read more »

Almost anyone in Europe with access to a 10 Amp 220 Volt household plug already has all they need to charge their PEV.

People living in apartments may not have this, but the people who do are still a large addressable market for PEVs.


THey only sold off the AESC joint venture that produced the rolls of battery cell material. THey still have cell and pack assembly plants in Sunderland UK, Smyrna USA, and at HQ in Japan. So… seems they still have some battery flexibility that only Tesla also has. Go to whomever supplies best formula and or cells and assemble packs themselves in whatever config they need.

That’s a 6-fold increase in EV sales for Europe. But if they have two new models coming out then that isn’t unreasonable. That translates to around 45,000 per year of each model. If they are good vehicles at a good price, I can see that.

Huh? What am I not getting here?
“I’m confident we’ll be selling _UP TO_ 20 percent of our volume as zero emissions vehicles” (my emphasis).
This doesn’t mean that 20% is the expected result or the target — it means that they don’t think it’ll be >20% . It means they think the actual result will be less.


They should also have mentioned the bottom % as well.

Something like: “10% – 20%”.

That would have meant: “at least 10%, but not more than 20%”.

Oh, so they’ll be able to drop the price that low on them by 2020, eh?