The Chinese EV Market Is Now Unbeatable

New subsidies, dizzying variety for consumers and sluggish demand for EVs in other parts of the world is helping China further its lead.

China Data

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Suvrat Kothari

By: Suvrat Kothari

Dec 4, 2024 at 2:00pm ET

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China's global share of the fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle market reached a whopping 76% in the month of October.
The Chinese market accounted for 69% of the global EV and PHEV sales between January and October this year.
Automakers like BYD, Geely, SAIC and newcomers like Xiaomi are driving this growth.

Over the past decade, Chinese automakers have staged a stunning rise in the auto industry, establishing a clear lead over the U.S. and Europe in democratizing electric vehicles. Now the latest sales data suggests that the country is so far ahead in electrification that a miracle would be needed for others to catch up or come even remotely close.

Data from the China Passenger Car Association, posted on the Chinese social media platform WeChat, indicates that China's EV market accounted for a whopping 76% of global EV sales in October. That figure represents new energy vehicles (NEVs), as they're called in China, which include both fully electric models and plug-in hybrids.

BYD Dolphin 9

Of the 14.1 million NEVs sold globally between January and October, 69% were in China, as per the CPCA. The U.S. accounted for less than 10% of this, with about 1.28 million EVs and PHEVs sold during the same period. Automakers in Europe sold about 2.32 million units in the first eight months of the year, but that growth is now slowing down as legacy brands in the continent struggle to sell EVs.

When you break down 'NEVs' into EVs and PHEVs, things also look good. From January to October, China's share of fully electric global sales stood at 63.2%. The share of PHEVs reached 78%. Simply put, much of the EV mass adoption is driven by China and Norway, with the former having a far greater statistical significance.

However, not all of this is great news. There have been concerns about EV production overcapacity in China spilling over to the rest of the world, especially the Global South, where Chinese EVs are now increasingly popular. Plus, the European Union has imposed a tariff of up to 45.3% on Chinese cars, while the U.S. and Canada both have a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports, in addition to a proposed ban on Chinese-origin software in future EVs.

Xiaomi SU7

These protectionist measures may help the U.S. and Europe keep its homegrown car factories humming, but the numbers indicate that China's domestic market continues to expand regardless. China doubled its EV subsidy in July. EV buyers who replace their gas cars can now get a subsidy of 20,000 yuan ($2,770), double the 10,000 yuan announced earlier this year.

Plus, the competition in the Chinese EV market is far more cutthroat. Automakers like BYD, SAIC and Xpeng, as well as newcomers like Xiaomi, are battling to gain a higher share of the market. Analysts estimate that less than 20 of the 137 EV brands in China will be profitable by the end of the decade.

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Now the incoming Trump administration has threatened to repeal the EV incentives for consumers and possibly even manufacturers, likely allowing China to expand its lead further.

Have a tip? Contact the author: suvrat.kothari@insideevs.com

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