Tesla Releases Accident Data For Q3 And Q4 2021: It's Better

Autopilot's numbers improved to new quarterly records.

Tesla Crash Lab: Tesla Model Y crash simulation Tesla Crash Lab: Tesla Model Y crash simulation

Tesla has just released its Vehicle Safety Report for the third and fourth quarter of 2021, in which some of results improved to new record levels.

For the drivers who were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features), the company recorded one crash for every 4.97 million miles driven in Q3 (new all-time record) and one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in Q4 (new quarterly best).

In the scenario of not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), the numbers are - as usual - lower: respectively one crash for every 1.6 million miles driven in Q3 and one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven in Q4.

In brief:

As we can see, the results were better than a year earlier (aside from Autopilot off in Q3). However, the problem with the evaluation of the progress is that too many external factors might significantly affect the results.

It's important to note that the results are comparable only for a particular category, not between the categories as the input data might be widely different. In other words, we can only see whether the active safety systems are improving over time (and it's also only a rough comparison), but we can't compare Autopilot to non-Autopilot driving.

We assume that the proper use of Autopilot improves safety, but Tesla's report does not allow us to evaluate the difference.

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report – Q4 2021

Let's take a look at how the results have changed since 2018. The average results for the U.S. have not been updated by the NHTSA.

Autopilot on vs U.S. average (NHTSA data):

The most recent two quarters were pretty good for Tesla in comparison with previous years:

Unfortunately, we can not say the same in the case of driving without Autopilot:

Important factors:

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