While Tesla's Battery Day plans could take it to the next level, they aren't even necessary for Tesla to retain its massive lead.
Some people argue that Tesla really isn't a growth company, since many of its plans are on the back burner, and it just started reporting a profit.
However, imagine if Tesla threw out all its goals, future plans, expansion projects, etc. and just laser-focused on producing and delivering cars as it does at the end of every quarter. It arguably doesn't need all the announcements and potential future projects to simply sell a lot of cars. According to a German battery expert, it also doesn't need to reduce battery cost by 56% to be successful either.
Tesla is wrapped up in a myriad of projects. Some are underway, others were announced years ago and still haven't moved forward, and still others may never come to fruition. A Semi, a Cybertruck, a supercar (Roadster), Full Self-Driving, robo-taxis, energy storage, solar, and the list goes on and on. The Silicon Valley company has a lot on its plate, and it's safe to say that some of it may never get cooked or eaten. However, that doesn't change the fact that it has a significant lead in the EV space and has no trouble selling cars.
Battery expert Maximilian Fichtner recently talked to German automotive publication Spiegel Mobility. He said that Tesla could continue to move far ahead of rivals even if it can't pull off its Battery Day goals. However, this doesn't have as much to do with what Tesla has done or will do in the future, but rather, what competitors have failed to do thus far, and seem to have no plans to pursue.
Fichtner is a professor for solid-state chemistry at Ulm University and a director at the Helmholtz Institute. He points out that Tesla sees its main business as batteries while German automakers are all about making cars. Tradtional automakers outsource many parts, and EV makers outsource batteries. Tesla has already changed that, and it wants to take it to the next level, but that isn't absolutely necessary to stay ahead. Fichtner explained (via Teslarati):
“You outsource more things to suppliers. They only develop core components such as the engine themselves. Battery production is not considered a core business. One tries at some point to use proven methods to build an electric car that is equivalent to Tesla, only with better body gaps. Tesla, on the other hand, achieves a lead through technology by processing the entire production chain, from the integration of its own hardware and software to batteries and the finished car."
Speaking specifically about Tesla's upcoming 4680 cells, Fichtner said they are a "quantum leap" that will unlock more electric range and future upgrades. With a 56% cost reduction, EVs could reach price parity with ICE cars. However, if Tesla falls short of this goal, and only improves marginally, it's lead will continue to grow, especially if competing companies continue to go with the status quo. Fichtner concluded:
"Even if the company only achieves a fraction of the growth announced, that is still far above what the competition in this country is planning.”