LG Chem's strategy of investing in lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity is based on a forecast of strong growth of plug-in electric cars.
It's expected that plug-in volume will increase from around 2.4 million in 2018 to 13.2 million in 2024 (5.5-times), which might be around 15% of total car sales.
"Last year, 2.4 million electric vehicles were sold, according to LG Chem. That represented less than 3% of total global vehicle sales, according to Reuters calculations based on data from researcher IHS Automotive."
Of course, the demand for lithium-ion batteries will grow even quicker because the average battery capacity is increasing.
The value of EV battery market probably will exceed the semiconductor market by 2025 and LG Chem, as a major player in the electric car segment, will take a significant part of the pie.
Interesting is also the forecast on battery prices - $100 per kWh (we conservatively assumed at cell level) in 2025, down from $200 in 2015.
Simple guess that 13.2 million plug-ins with an average 50 kWh battery and $100/kWh would translate into:
- 660 GWh of batteries
- $66 billion market
LG Chem earlier revealed that it would sell in 2024 batteries amounting to $26.7 billion.