According to the latest Navigant Research's analysis of the global bus market, it's forecasted that by 2030 some 33% of the global bus fleet will be electric.
While we feel might it be too conservative, we agree that China will lead the way (already is) with the highest share. Navigant's forecast:
- China: 74%
- Europe: 14%
- North America: 14%
- World average: 33%
"Globally, China will continue to be the leading market segment for overall e-bus sales and is expected to maintain the vast majority of the market share with 74% by 2030. According to the report, North America and Europe will jointly make up nearly 14% of all e-bus sales by then.
The numbers themselves are questionable (at least Europe at half of the global average is incomprehensible).
We recently saw that in the U.S., EV share is near 0%, but share in new sales is probably already noticeable. In Europe, EVs stands for a significant percentage of new bus sales (depending on the manufacturer it might be a double-digit share).
William Drier, research analyst with Navigant Research said:
“Fleets can take advantage of increasing government support to help surmount the high upfront costs associated with e-buses. Transit, coach, shuttle, and school fleets can use e-buses to achieve their emissions and air quality targets, while improving their bottom line. These market conditions can enable e-buses to lead the way on the electrification of other commercial vehicle segments.”
Source: Navigant Research