In 15 years electric cars will take half of the global market?

According to the DNV GL forecast, the growth of electric car sales will accelerate and it will take the shape of an S-shaped curve of innovation.

In result, 50% of all new cars sold globally to be electric by 2033, which is about 15 years from now (today's average is roughly 20 times lower).

DNV GL says also that in the main phase, we will see growth from less than 10% to more than 90% within 10 years.

We need to wait a few years to reach double-digit market share on a global scale (some countries already enjoy this level of EV revolution).

The barriers noted by DNV GL that slow down the pace are higher upfront costs of EVs, range anxiety and an insufficient charging infrastructure. We assume that a few years from now it will be way better both in terms of models to choose from and the infrastructure perspective.

"These are the findings of DNV GL’s annual Energy Transition Outlook, which provides a forecast of the global energy landscape up to 2050.

Statistics from the World Economic Forum reveal that several countries, including Germany, Norway, Netherlands, UK, France and India have already set out targets to phase-out or ban petrol and diesel cars in the years to come. The forecasts in DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook reveal that these targets are achievable. However, there are challenges facing the uptake of EVs, including cost, range anxiety and concerns about infrastructure.

With a mission to shift the industry from being policy-driven to market-driven and support its our customers to overcome these challenges, DNV GL has today outlined its ambitions for the growing sector. Based on 10 years of experience working with stakeholders across the EV value-chain, including automotive OEMs, charge point operators, network operators, utilities and governments, DNV GL has identified four clear areas of expertise; safety, communication and control, flexibility and emerging technologies.

With a focus on these four areas, DNV GL will support its customers to adopt new technologies, implement policy and make decisions that adapt current technological, economical, and regulatory business models to take advantage of this rapidly growing market.

As part of its strategic focus on the EV market, DNV GL has appointed Jeremy Parkes as global business lead for EVs. Jeremy has 20 years’ experience in the automotive and renewable energy industries, at Rolls Royce, Garrad Hassan and Belltown Power. He has a proven ability to deliver strategic insight and achieve substantial growth in new business areas and will be responsible for defining and developing DNV GL’s services in the EV sector, to cement the company’s role as a leader in this fast-developing field."

"The full Energy Transition Outlook ‘Power Supply and Use’ report is available for a free download at eto.dnvgl.com. This publication is part of DNV GL’s suite of Energy Transition Outlook reports."

Speaking about his appointment, Jeremy Parkes commented:

“The EV revolution is the start of a huge transition in the automotive industry, which has been dominated by the internal combustion engine for more than a century. I am excited to have joined DNV GL to help accelerate this transition through projects that drive down the overall cost of ownership, improve vehicle range and efficiently integrate charging infrastructure. The combination of electric vehicles, substantial growth in renewable energy generation and the expansion of smart grid solutions will be key enablers of the clean and flexible energy systems of the future."

Ditlev Engel, CEO, DNV GL - Energy commented:

“The growth of EVs signals real progress in reducing our carbon emissions globally. To overcome the challenges facing the industry, the development of EVs and associated infrastructure will need to go from being only policy-driven to also being market-driven. I’m excited to announce our ambitions for the industry and pleased to welcome Jeremy to the team. Through this new commitment and the breadth and depth of our knowledge, we will help existing and future customers navigate the EV revolution and make the most of its opportunities.”