Most of it will be driven by car-sharing fleets
A report by ABI research predicts that the global electric mileage share is expected to skyrocket to 20% by 2030. This will mostly be impacted by the uptake of EVs in car-sharing fleets. In turn, this will push the utilization of EVs to higher levels, providing a healthy drop off in overall greenhouse emission rates in certain countries and cities.
However, the source of electricity to power these EVs will be the most impacting factor in terms of GHG emission rates and a general redesign of the power grid and electricity generation will be needed to sustain the drop in GHGs entirely.
In the future, consumer adoption of EVs is set to continue to grow. Currently, the EV adoption rates continue to disappoint. This year, only 2% of all vehicles set to be shipped are expected to be electric. But, there's light at the end of the tunnel.
Local governments are increasingly becoming aware of all the benefits EVs pose for the environment: improved sustainability, reduced environmental impact and improved air quality. The latter, especially important to large cities, might prove to be the turning point in EV adoption rates in the future. This pushes cities to introduce some rather significant changes. Widespread urban emission zones, for example, aimed to ban older diesel vehicles, will eventually culminate with zero emission zones. In turn, this will allow any city to institute a completely zero-emission zone in the city center, helping reduce emission rates even further.
Vehicle electrification adoption drivers will increasingly shift from consumer-ownership to shared urban mobility, initially ridesharing followed by driverless EV car sharing in the longer term. The state of California is preparing a bill which would mandate 20% of miles traveled via ride-hailing services to be in EVs by 2023, rising to 50% by 2026. At the same time, Uber’s EV Champions program proactively pushes ridesharing electrification through education, support, and cash incentives for driver-partners. - Dominique Bonte, Vice President End Markets at ABI Research
Ultimately, there are several improvements needed to sustain large-scale electrification. One of the most important changes is the charging station and grid improvements. With those, the adoption rates for EVs will consequently improve as well.
Another driving force behind the better EV adoption rates will be the constant need to improve the business model of this industry. Companies will have to find a business model that allows continuous operation and availability from both a profitability and customer experience standpoint, which, if implemented correctly, is slated to drive the need for a widespread network of both DC fast charging and future wireless public charging facilities. Simply put, it will not be the ecology aspect that drives the adoption rates, it will be the profitability and business-oriented aspects of these decisions that make both the vehicles and infrastructure better.
With more EVs hitting the streets, the stress on the public power grid is set to increase. According to ABI Research, this will have to be mitigated with advanced demand-response and load balancing software solutions. Furthermore, advanced EV charging management and Vehicle-to-Grid systems, combined with widespread adoption of microgrids, and a more holistic, cross-vertical approach to energy management, are all going to be needed to satisfy the demands set forth by the larger numbers of EVs set to hit the roads in the future.
In the end, according to ABI Research, the EV revolution will require a fundamentally redesigned power grid itself. It will have to be tailored to accommodate a set of highly distributed and decentralized renewable energy production sources and consumption within urban environments.
The dominance of car-based mobility is not sustainable
Finally, ABI Research finds that the sustainability of car-based mobility may not be there. The urban transportation electrification is set to be multimodal. It will include EVs complemented by electric 2-wheel vehicles (bikes, scooters, and motorbikes), shuttles, boats, and future passenger carrying drones. Public transportation seems to be the key, alongside car sharing and other various electric powered modes of transport. Both Uber and Lyft are investing heavily in integrated bike and scooter sharing, further reshaping the urban mobility landscape.
Source: Green Car Congress