It turns out that VIN tracking for the Tesla Model 3 has been pretty successful in determining production.
Last week, Tesla hit a production rate of 2,000 Model 3s per week. CEO Elon Musk suggested that it "may" happen, but then, Tesla pulled it off. Tom Randall, one of the developers of Bloomberg's Model 3 tracker (which is almost entirely based on VINs) recently tweeted that the formula has been very successful.
***UPDATE - Tesla just registered nearly 3,000 more Model 3 VINs
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) April 6, 2018
Check This Out: Decoding Tesla Model 3 VIN
Today Tesla released its Model 3 production numbers, and the model I built with @dean_halford performed admirably. We were just 5% short of Tesla’s cumulative number and 10% above Tesla’s reported burst rate (which was especially hard to guess at)! Some thoughts 1/ pic.twitter.com/4nm6Umq6rw
— Tom Randall (@tsrandall) April 3, 2018
Now, Tesla just registered another 4,793 Model 3 VINs with the NHTSA. Hopefully, this means that the higher production rate is here to stay.
So, despite the fact that VINs have never been a credible or reliable way to track vehicle production, it appears as though it's working out pretty well for all of us. As far as deliveries are concerned, Tesla delivered more EVs in Q1 2018 than any other automaker ever. In fact, the company beat its huge 2017 Q4 number, and we all know that Q4 is historically the best quarter for vehicle sales (especially EVs).
@Model3VINs on Twitter keeps track of all Tesla's VIN registrations for the popular, all-electric sedan. This latest group of VINs is the automaker's largest thus far.
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) April 5, 2018