BP, in its latest Energy Outlook 2018 report for years 2016-2040, forecasts only moderate growth for plug-in electric car sales.
More than 20 years from now, in 2040, still only 15% of the world car fleet to be plug-in electric cars, according to BP.
That's 300 million vehicles out of almost 2 billion, but we hope for much higher numbers.
At the same time, BP expects steady demand for fuel for cars, despite EVs and overall improving efficiency. BP's outlook seems to side with its core business of petroleum, but doesn't really line up with most other forecasts.
Passenger car parc by type in 2040 - forecast (source: BP)
"This year’s Outlook argues that the penetration of electricity in the transport sector is best measured by considering both the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and how intensively each vehicle is used. In the evolving transition scenario, the share of EVs in the global car parc reaches around 15% by 2040 – more than 300 million cars in a car parc of almost 2 billion. However, the share of passenger car kilometres powered by electricity, which also takes account of the intensity with which electric cars are used, is over 30%. The Outlook shows how the interaction of fully-autonomous cars with shared mobility has the potential to substantially boost the intensity with which electric cars are driven.
A key uncertainty in the period to 2040 is the speed with which sales of electric cars increases. To gauge the significance of this uncertainty, the Outlook considers a scenario in which there is a worldwide ban on the sales of cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2040. This scenario reduces liquid fuel demand by around 10 million barrels a day relative to the evolving transition scenario but, even so, the level of oil demand in 2040 in the ‘ICE ban’ scenario is higher than in 2016.
“The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers – even with really rapid growth,” explains Dale. “Even in the scenario where we see an ICE ban and very high efficiency standards, oil demand is still higher in 2040 than it is today.”
Changes in liquids demand from cars: 2016-2040 - forecast (source: BP)
See full report: Energy Outlook 2018