BYD Qin 100: Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD (electric car maker) believes that China may ban ICE vehicles as soon as 2030.
Some believe the ban on gas in China could come as soon as 2030 and the impact of the electric car on the country's oil giants will be monumental.
The chances of the ban happening in full swing by 2030 is doubtful. Wang Chuanfu, BYD founder, believes that it may happen, but, of course, he's also hopeful that it will since his electric car company is relying on it. It may take quite a bit of time, especially considering that even with multiple EV and battery makers in the country, and a push toward adoption, the new technology has only reached about a 2 percent market saturation.
BYD 20MW 40MWh Energy Storage Station - BYD Headquarter, Shenzhen
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that one-fifth of all vehicle sales in China will be new-energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2025. This includes both electric cars and hybrid variants. However, government regulators are pushing for all automakers to have NEVs account for a minimum of 10 percent of all sales by 2019.
Currently, China has a $440 billion retail fuel market, which not only impacts the country itself but the global market as well. Reuters says that Sinopec and PetroChina will feel the electric car transition more than any other companies. The publication explains:
"Sinopec will be hit hardest. Gasoline sales made up around a quarter of total revenue at the group’s listed unit China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation in 2016, and the energy giant runs almost a third of the country’s 100,000 or so service stations. These hubs boast more than 23,000 convenience stores, a valuable sideline. Non-fuel sales could grow by as much as 25.5 percent a year in the period 2016 to 2019, according to research by brokerage CLSA.
Panasonic's Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
PetroChina will feel the pinch too. It controls some 20,000 petrol stations, and sold more than 62 million tonnes of gasoline last year, worth about 357 billion yuan at 2016 prices. PetroChina is slightly less dependent on refining than Sinopec – gasoline sales made up roughly a fifth of revenues."
The report goes on to say that if only one-fifth of automotive sales in China are NEVs by 2025, this means gas stations will lose a whopping seven million customers. Further, this could potentially eliminate 3,500 gas stations in China.
Though China is the world's largest automotive market, the adoption of the electric car will have a similar global impact. This is especially true since China is not the only country working on banning ICE vehicles. Several European countries are already further along in the process.
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