Chevy Bolt EV:

Chevy Bolt EV:

The cost per mile for EVs will drop to only 6.8 cents.

It’s no secret that the transportation sector needs a change. A big change. In order to meet the new strict global emission goals set by world leaders in 2015 (read: to save our planet), we need to stop using internal combustion engine cars by 2035. Taking into consideration electric vehicles account for one to two percent on the different markets, this sounds like a pretty ambitious plan.

But Stanford University economist Tony Seba believes things are much brighter than we think. His new report “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030” claims that no more petrol or diesel car, buses, and trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within only eight years.

Well, that’s quite a bold statement. “We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Seba says. That’s true, but is it going to happen that fast?

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

The turning point for the industry, according to the study, will arrive in only two or three years as batteries for electric vehicles get better. Seba sees 200 miles (322 kilometers) at a single charge and $30,000 price for an EV as numbers we will start seeing before the end of the decade.

“What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally.”

According to the specialist, only nostalgic people will hold on to the old habit of car ownership. Most of the customers will adapt to a new way of transportation with vehicles in demand. Dealerships will disappear by 2024.

According to the study, the cost per mile for EVs will drop to only 6.8 cents, while insurance costs will fall by 90 percent thanks to autonomous technologies. More than 95 percent of the miles driven in the United States by 2030 will be in autonomous EVs. Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million by 2030.

Hit the two source links below for further details from the study.

Sidenote:  Or if you prefer your forecasting to be super conservative, check out Edmunds report that an EV sales apocalypse is heading for the US with the eventual expiry of the $7,500 federal credit.   Happy middle-ground anyone?

Source: Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 via Financial Post

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