Initial Tesla Model 3 deliveries are right around the corner, and finally, you can get a pretty good idea of when you might get yours.
Tesla and SpaceX employees will get their Tesla Model 3s first because they had the opportunity to reserve theirs prior to the general public. This only makes sense, not only because they work for Elon Musk, but also because the group of employees can function like a pilot group, reporting early issues before production ramps up significantly.
Tesla Model 3
Ben Sullins of Teslanomics combined all of the other factors to create an interactive calculator. Aside from the Musk employee perk, it takes into account, reservation time, battery size, rear- or all-wheel drive, and location. From this information, Sullins' algorithm gives you your estimated production and delivery dates.
Sullins jokingly claims to have spoken with Tesla CEO Elon Musk regarding this venture. Note the emphasis on jokingly ... but there may not be a better resource than Sullins, along with his close collaboration with "those in the know" from the Model 3 Owners Club and Tesla Motors Club forum.
Video Description via Teslanomics by Ben Sullins on YouTube:
We’re all wondering… “When am I going to get my Tesla Model 3!?” I’ve built a tool to help you figure out when you’re going to get your model 3! It all started when…
I got call from Musk the other day, and he let me know there was a disturbance in the force. He told me people were getting restless waiting for their Model 3s, and I was chosen to help ease their concerns. So, I decided to give you the power of the force by creating a tool to help you predict when you’ll get your Model 3.
All kidding and Tesla superpowers aside, there are several factors that go into determining when your Model 3 will end up in your driveway. Step one in predicting when you’ll receive your Tesla is remembering when you made your reservation. During the Tesla unveiling event, the number of reservations was revealed, and this helped buyers calculate exactly where their place in line is. If you’re an existing Tesla owner, you’re in luck. You will get your Model 3 before general public.
According to Musk’s recent comments at a shareholders event, there are several other clues about how Tesla plans to deliver the Model 3. In a recent tweet, Elon shared:
" just be a single motor to begin with. And then, we will have the dual motor config, if we are lucky, toward the end of this year or more likely early next.”
So, which options you want with your Model 3, may impact your delivery date. Additionally, based on their previous roll-out strategy and the fact that California is where the Tesla factory is, Californians will likely be the first to get their Model 3s.
The last bit of information needed to determine when you’ll get your Model 3 is your location. This helps to understand the natural delay from their roll-out plan as well as shipping time. For example, in Japan, I’m estimating it takes 41 days just for shipping.
After you’ve entered all your information in my Tesla Model 3 delivery tool, you just need to click the big button. Then, “Tesllllll-YeAh!” You’ll get an estimated delivery date on a beautiful, printable page that you can hang on your wall and share on social media.
A big thanks to Troy and the other folks at Tesla Motors Club for providing the data and algorithm to come up with these estimates.