Typical Tesla Store
IT'S SETTLED, TESLA IS A TECHNOLOGY COMPANY
Taking this into consideration, "is Tesla an automaker like Ford, GM or Daimler? Or does it resemble a tech company such as Google, Microsoft and Apple? It is an important question; valuations are very different. Sure, Tesla makes a car, just like Apple makes an iPhone. Tesla is, and does, have an ecosystem, with its software that runs the car, autonomous driving network with machine learning and over-the-air updates. When was the last Ford, GM or Daimler pushed out an autonomous driving update over the air?" Indeed. Tesla's emphasis on tech allows them key advantages throughout their ecosystem. For one, Tesla's self-driving leadership position has (in and of itself) has significant value. Case in point — just this week, Intel bought Mobileye for a whopping $15 Billion.
So how do you value a company like Tesla? "Trying to value something that is changing the landscape of an industry is nearly impossible. The market has already told us what TSLA is worth: like it or not, $40 billion. Why? Because it has been trading in the same range for nearly three years. Knowing what it will be worth three years from now is the impossible task. I'd argue with anyone that tries to make a case for a Tesla valuation three years, let alone two years, out. It is nearly impossible to predict any of the variables that go into any of the models used to figure these valuations out. None. Can you tell us what the risk-free rate will be? How many cars Tesla can produce? What will be the demand for the cars? One can't, so it is not even worth trying."
And here's the ongoing flaw: "analysts and investors get hung up with companies beating or missing analyst expectations because investing is all about expectations. In this case, despite beating or missing guidance and expectations, revenue growth has been consistent and stable. Revenue growth should be the main driving point when investing in a company like TSLA. Is the company consistently growing revenue at a faster pace, or is it stalling out and hitting stumbling blocks? Is the company consistently producing more cars and making more deliveries? TSLA has been growing all of these metrics regularly, which would indicate the company is producing cars into high demand."
Viewing Tesla as an automaker only is far too limiting, instead "TSLA is a technology company that is producing cars." After all Tesla's unique tech advantage allows them to go far beyond electric cars and self-driving leadership (and expertise). It allows the business to evolve into a superior battery manufacturing company, stationary storage provider and solar roof pioneer. Bringing all these disparate pieces together along with the much-anticipated Model 3 will be hard to forecast. That said, "how much is a company worth that is currently on an exponential growth curve, and about to do the impossible? It looks we are about to find out. Odds are the answer is: a lot more than its current value."
*Editor’s Note: EVANNEX, which also sells aftermarket gear for Teslas, has kindly allowed us to share some of its content with our readers. Our thanks go out to EVANNEX, Check out the site here.