Chevrolet Bolt EV

Chevrolet Bolt EV

According to an ABI Research forecast, the electric vehicle market will expand more than five times through 2021.

Expected plug-in revenues are pegged to reach $58 billion globally in ~5 years time as compared to today (2015).

Which of course would mean that current revenues already exceed $11 billion.

$58 billion is equivalent to some 1,350,000 Tesla Model 3s sold at average price of $43,000.

It sure sounds like a lot, but given that we've tracked ~550,297 plug-in sales made worldwide in 2015, the estimated number is quite likely far too low in reality - even if you assign a much lower average selling price.

Susan Beardslee, Senior Analyst at ABI Research said:

“The role of vehicle electrication in urban areas is part of a broader smart mobility model that includes shared vehicles, charging options, and driverless electric vehicle fleets of cars, buses, trams, and light rail. No singular option prevails; in fact, innovative manufacturers are creating ways for them to converge.”

“The U.S. is taking longer to embrace the trend, though, with many residents expressing hesitation to let go of their private, singular vehicles as we move toward a shared, smart mobility transportation model. Once the price point of electric vehicles starts to drop, as evident with Tesla’s Model 3 and the forthcoming Chevy Bolt, and manufacturers address range anxiety, we believe that the U.S. market will see a jump in its sales. Over time, we expect greater adoption through fleet purchases including Uber and Lyft.”

“While the market’s current lack of sufficient standards and infrastructure is impacting the broader adoption of electric vehicles, we believe that the greater access, variety, and flexibility of electric vehicles and increasing urban congestion will positively influence future electric vehicle deployment and adoption. The long-term forecasting of global energy needs from Exxon shows the sobering impact of an unsustainable 35% to 140% increase in energy requirements. Global consortia and public and private partnerships will continue to be leading efforts resulting in necessary change to our transportation industry.”

More about the topic in ABI Research’s Smart Transportation Service report.