Tesla Model S and Panasonic lithium-ion battery cell
Plug In America's on-going battery study about the battery capacity of Tesla Model S sedans over time reveals the trends in capacity drop with increasing mileage.
According to the graph, capacity drop for Model S 85 kWh should be just below 10% on average after 100,000 miles.
The plan for the future is to collect more data on the 70 and 90 kWh versions, as well as for the Model X 90 kWh.
An interesting finding also comes from the replacement rates for major components - both drive unit and battery swaps seem to be decreasing over time to 2.2% (each):
Major Maintenance Rates (source: Plug In America)
The median odometer values give a rough idea of how many miles the vehicles in each group have been driven. Half of the vehicles in each year reported fewer miles than the median and half reported more as of when last updated.
Year Vehicles Median Odo Miles Drive Unit Swap % Battery Swap % Charger Swap % 2012 106 29,284 37.7 16.0 9.4 2013 253 22,525 28.9 5.5 4.3 2014 67 17,500 20.9 1.5 6.0 2015 45 7,542 2.2 2.2 0.0 2016 8 813 0.0 0.0 0.0 479