TABLE 1: EV SALES REQUIREMENT TO MEET THE 2020 STANDARDS
The World Energy Council in its recent report World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap estimates that in order to comply with stricter emission regulations in the future, automakers need to embrace plug-in technology in a big way.
Electric car sales are stated as a required technology to achieve the desired average emission level in the appropriate time frame, as ICE vehicle technology is fairly maxed out - and the future targets are too aggressive for the platform to accomodate.
According to the report, by 2020 plug-ins should stand for some 16% sales in Europe, U.S. and China.
Well, that translates to millions of cars annually. Over 20-times more than today in less than five years.
"Electric vehicles (EVs) will need to increase their combined market share to 16% by 2020 to achieve the aggressive fuel economy standards set by regulators, according to new research by the World Energy Council.
While EVs currently represent less than 1% combined market share across the world’s largest markets for new passenger cars, they should be considered central to any policy and technology portfolio designed to lower transport emissions."
Future of transportation on worldwide roads? New report says at least a 16% adoption rate is needed in short term (InsideEVs/Warren M)
"The innovative role EVs can play in meeting these standards makes for a pragmatic step in closing the emissions gap by 2020. Looking beyond 2020, EVs and innovation in this area present a major growth opportunity not only for car manufacturers but for the energy sector as a whole.”
Over the next five to ten years, passenger vehicle manufacturers will be confronted with regulatory pressure and material penalties, as gains in fuel economy fall behind the required rates of improvement set to address environmental preservation and climate change mitigation.
With a collective annual demand of over 40 million passenger vehicles, three of the largest car markets in the world, the EU, US and China, have all set fuel economy improvement targets of approximately 30% for cars from 2014-2020 (as measured in NEDC gCO2/km), which are expected to exceed forecasted new internal combustion engine (ICE) powered car capabilities.
The World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap’, published by the Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy, examines the growth in sales of EVs as the latest technologies to increase average fuel efficiency and meet these stringent economy standards, set in all three markets, referred to as the “EV gap”. In the EU, the EV gap is 1.4 million, 10% of the estimated 2020 projected passenger sales, in the US, 0.9 million (11%) and in China roughly 5.3 million, 22% of the projected passenger car sales.
The report, which will be presented in the margins of the G20 Energy Ministers meeting in Beijing by Berat Albayrak, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey, highlights key findings which represent a new frontier and a signiﬁcant opportunity for the energy sector which will be fully embraced at this year’s World Energy Congress in Istanbul, where global energy leaders will address these and similar challenges."
WEC estimates also how much more electricity will be needed for the millions of additional plug-ins by 2020:
- 3.7 TWh (equivalent to 734,000 homes) in the EU
- 4.5 TWh (equivalent to 367,000 homes) in the US
- 26.2 TWh (equivalent to 17 million homes) in China
World Energy Perspective 2016: ‘E-mobility: closing the emissions gap