2016 Nissan LEAF
In a recent article, FleetCarma explored the pace of diffusion of a new solution required by a new regulation in automotive industry.
"If we passed a law today that mandated all new vehicles meet some requirement, how long would it take for 50% of the vehicles on the road to comply with the new standard?"
For example, if we mandate that all cars sold must be all-electric or plug-in hybrid with some minimum EV range, when we will see half of the cars on the streets meeting these requirements?
According to FleetCarma, taking into consideration design time of new models (manufacturers are able to develop just a few new models a year, and average vehicle turnover of 11.4 years, it would take about 18 years before 50% of the cars on the roads were all-electric or plug-in hybrid.
18 years. For half of the vehicles on the road to comply with the new law. (source: FleetCarma)
18 years?! And we must start today, mandating 100% new models to be electric, hoping that there will be no loophole in regulations or delays, and excluding economy/prices from the equation (everyone just buys EVs).
If we assume that the current pace of sales, we must realize that the EV journey will be our lifetime journey with many recharge points along the way. In other words, we have to be in it for the long haul.