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Them forward-lookers over at Navigant Research have released their latest light-duty electric vehicle prediction:
"Sales of Light Duty Electric Vehicles are Expected to Reach 6.4 Million Annually by 2023, According to Navigant Research"
Light-duty basically translates to passenger vehicles, excluding heavy-duty trucks.
Here's the rest of the Navigant Research press release:
Electric vehicles face more competition as additional technologies that improve fuel economy emerge, report finds
BOULDER, Colo. — A recent report from Navigant Research provides a comprehensive overview of the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and the light duty electric vehicle (EV) market, including global forecasts for annual vehicle sales and vehicles in use through 2023.
The use of EVs, which now account for a small but growing share of the world’s LDV market, has been promoted by governments around the world because of the economic, environmental, and energy efficient benefits they provide. Although they make up a small portion of the overall LDV market today, the hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) that contribute to this market are becoming a significant part of the global automotive industry. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of light duty EVs are expected to increase from 2.7 million in 2014 to 6.4 million in 2023.
“Historically, governments have pushed automakers to develop EVs and have also encouraged citizens to buy them, but it’s likely government incentives will begin to decrease in most developed regions as the market begins to shift,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “EVs are expected to become more available in the luxury class segments, where the plug-in vehicle (PEV) premium is lower than comparable vehicles due to higher overall vehicle prices.”
The market for conventional vehicles with reduced fuel consumption is also expected to become more competitive, as other fuel-efficient and alternative fuel technologies begin to enter the LDV market, according to the report. In particular, fuel efficiency advances made to internal combustion engines are likely to threaten HEV market share in economy class segments, making growth contingent on EVs expanding into larger vehicle formats, such as sport utility vehicles (SUVs).
The report, “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts,” provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall LDV market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), world region, key country, drivetrain, class, and automaker, extend through 2023. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.