Lots Of LEAFs By 2035, We Suspect
In its latest report on the future of plug-in and fuel cell vehicles, Navigant Research attempts to predict the number of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) that will be on roads around the globe by 2035. Navigant then tries to forecast what percent of those vehicles will be plug-in and fuel cell vehicles.
The conclusion, per Navigant via Green Car Congress, is that "plug-in hybrid (PHEV), battery-electric (BEV), and fuel-cell electric (FCV) together will add up to almost 2.5% of the LDVs in use in 2035."
2.5% of what figure? Well, according to Navigant, there will be an estimated 2 billion LDVs in use worldwide in 2035. 2.5% of 2 billion equals 50,000,000, or a hell of a lot of plug in and fuel cell vehicles.
"While the landscape for vehicle technologies will change significantly, alterations to the primary fuel landscape will be more modest. LDVs primarily fueled by gasoline will fall as a percentage of the overall global fleet from 82% in 2014 to 75% in 2035. Fuel efficiency gains from diesel engines will increase diesel’s share of the fleet from 16% in 2014 to 19% in 2035. By 2035, more than 4% of vehicles will be fueled by natural gas and less than 1% by hydrogen. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1% of global LDVs in use; however, PEVs (which also includes PHEVs) will represent almost 1.7%."
Source: Green Car Congress