At Volkswagen's annual Media Conference and Investor Conference in Berlin, Dr. Martin Winterkorn, chairman of the board at VW AG, made one statement that stood out:
Golf GTE in Geneva
"It is important to look at the cost of the components: the battery technology, the electric motor and the electric components. Whenever you go into volume production, you of course have economies of scale. In two to three years' time, if we are able to achieve the goals we are setting for ourselves with cost and reach sufficient volume, I do believe that we can achieve two to three percent within VW Group. So, hitting a million EVs by 2020 is reachable."
To clarify, Dr. Winterkorn is not saying that Volkswagen Group alone will produce 1 million EVs by 2020, but rather that Germany as a whole will have 1 million EVs on its roads.
Back to that 2 or 3% comment.
In 2013, Volkswagen Group sold 9.7 million automobiles globally.
So, even if you take 2% of that figure (which will likely rise by the time 2020 comes around), we arrive at 194,000. That would be VW's annual sales target for plug-in vehicles when costs come down due to economies of scale.
Understandably, this is a vague figure with no set timeframe and it includes a fair amount of "ifs," but still it gives us a sense of where VW thinks it can be in terms of plug in sales at some point in the foreseeable future.