Recently, Soichiro Okudaira, chief officer of Toyota's research and development group, told Automotive News Europe that fuel cell vehicles will be priced to compete with battery electrics before 2030.

By 2030, an FCEV Might Finally Be Cost Competitive With An EV - Our Advice? That's 17 Years Away...Just Go Buy an EV

By 2030, an FCEV Might Finally Be Cost Competitive With An EV - Our Advice? That's 17 Years Away...Just Go Buy an EV

As we see it, that's way too late for fuel cell vehicle to stand a fighting chance against plug-ins.

Quoting Okudaira:

"Beyond 2020 .... fuel cell cars will be considered just one alternative of the eco cars."

Toyota says it expects to sell 5,000 to 10,000 units of its first production fuel cell vehicle when it launches in early 2015.  This sales figure is a right-out-of-the-gate number, meaning that Toyota expects annual sales of its FCEV to be between 5,000 and 10,000 units from 2015 on.

The problem is that Toyota's FCEV is still far too expensive for the automaker to hit the volume of sales it desire.  It's believed Toyota will price its FCEV at ~$75,000 to $100,000.  Few buyers will line up at that absurd price.  It's certain to us that there's no possibility Toyota will hit 10,000 or even 5,000 units sold at the price, especially when the refueling infrastructure is basically non-existent.

Come 2030 or so, when FCEVs reach EV price parity, EVs will have advanced so far and become so mainstream that FCEVs won't compete in the passenger vehicle segment.  At least that's how we see it.

Source: Automotive News Europe