Navigant Research: More Than 35 Million Electrified Vehicles Will Be on Roads Worldwide by 2022

JAN 20 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 8

By 2022, There Could be 35 Million EVs on Road Worldwide

By 2022, There Could be 35 Million EVs on Road Worldwide

According to Navigant Research, more than 35 million electrified vehicles will be on roads worldwide by 2022.

How Many of the 35 Million Do You Think Will be Able to Charge Wirelessly?

How Many of the 35 Million Do You Think Will be Able to Charge Wirelessly?

That’s the headline-grabbing statement made the the research firm, but we must note that included within that 35-million statement are conventional hybrids that don’t plug in.

As Navigant Research reports:

“The fast-growing market for electric vehicles (EVs) – including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles – has become a small but important part of the global automotive industry. Governments worldwide are keen to see increasing penetrations of EVs due to the environmental, economic, and energy security benefits they provide. According to a new report from Navigant Research, by 2022 there will be more than 35 million EVs on roads worldwide.”

By lumping conventional hybrids into EV the mix, Navigant surely made a mistake.

Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research, states:

“…operational cost savings due to reduced refueling and maintenance costs are proving that, when considered over the life of the vehicle, EVs are cost-competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles.”

The statement, while mostly true, is typically applied to plug-in vehicles, not to conventional hybrids, which have not been proven as a whole to cut down on maintenance costs.

What we need is a more universal understanding for what an electric vehicle is.  Our definition always has been that, if it plugs in, then we will class it as EV, if it doesn’t – not an EV (despite many sub-classes of plug-in vehicle types).  It’s a perhaps an over-simplified definition, but one we feel should be applied universally so that the general public isn’t confused.

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8 Comments on "Navigant Research: More Than 35 Million Electrified Vehicles Will Be on Roads Worldwide by 2022"

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I really hope to see the traditional hybrid disappear in favor of the plug-in hybrid. If batteries continue to get cheaper, as everyone is predicting, then it should get to where there is no point in putting a hybrid drive train in a vehicle unless you are also going to include a plug. Even if it is just 10 miles of EV range, it makes a big impact on overall gasoline usage.

I also agree with the author, that for the purposes of discussion of market penetration and things of that nature, anything with a plug should be labelled an electric car.

“Even if it is just 10 miles of EV range, it makes a big impact on overall gasoline usage.”

I like that logic David. If Toyota/Ford alone took that stance, the impact would be huge. Also, have you met anyone ever that did not enjoy and prefer the EV miles. Once you get a taste of it you want more.

A 100% electric highway is way beyond any foreseeable future, but I have genuine high hopes for 50-85%

You can hardly call a traditional hybrid an electrified vehicle. It’s just an ICE vehicle that is a bit more efficient.

If they should count anything but plug-in hybrids and electric cars then it should be electric mopeds/motor cycles/bikes.

Navigant Research published a breath taking white paper earlier this year that delt strictly with plug-in electric cars- “Nearly 22,000,000 Electric Vehicles Will Be Sold Between 2012 And 2020.”

Lovin It!

This was published in the Wall Stree Journal!

Link Goes To WSJ- No PayWall-

http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130419-904887.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Best-

Thomas J. Thias

Will Navigant Research and its ridiculously rosy predictions give us all a break? Who pays these guys?

All they do, is make the actual successes of EVs on the ground look bad compared with their “predictions”.

Yep, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the conversion to ev’s won’t happen overnight.
Logic dictates that any vehicle with 2 engines will require equal and possibly more maintenance than a single engine vehicle.

I think the Volt owners will say that logic is a bit flawed since it’s the ICE that needs maintenance and with an electric engine taking the main load in an plug-in hybrid the use of the ICE is (a lot) lower.

In reality I believe it goes:
ICE only > ICE + electric > electric only
when it comes to maintenance.

I don’t have the numbers to back it but the reports from plug-in hybrid owners seem to point in that direction.

Electric-Car-Insider.com

If the EV sales growth rate continues at its current ~100% annual rate, these predictions are on target. That’s not unlikely when improvements in battery chemistry deliver sufficient energy density to deliver 150-200 mile range at a competitive price. With a decent QC infrastructure, and $1 per gallon fuel cost equivalent, ICEs will be a tough sell for anything but a range extender.

Even without a single big breakthrough, at 8% improvement per year, that’s only 9 years from now, 2023.

With at least 34 different DOE funded national labs working hard on the breakthrough, and given the sustained motivation, considering the benefits to consumer electronics and grid storage as well as transportation, that breakthrough, with many promising chemistries already identified, is not unlikely.