Navigant Research: 85 Million Autonomous Cars To Be Sold Annually By 2035

SEP 9 2015 BY STAFF 16

The Current Autonomous Drive Nissan Leaf Showing Off Outside Nissan's Research center in Silicon Valley.

The Current Autonomous Drive Nissan Leaf Showing Off Outside Nissan’s Research center in Silicon Valley.

Tesla Autopilot

Tesla Autopilot

Perhaps there is reason to believe that someday Tesla (or other automakers) will introduce massive autonomous car sharing programs.

According to Navigant Research, the market for autonomous cars will be huge in the far-off future.

Truthfully, we aren’t sure how anyone can accurate quantify this future-tense market segment (we will go with 1.5 million autonomous cars sold by 2035 – come back and tell us if we are wrong in 20 years):

“According to Navigant Research, 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around the world by 2035.”

Here’s Navigant’s press release on autonomous vehicles:

Autonomous Vehicles
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems and the Evolution of Self-Driving Functionality: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The first combinations of advanced driver assistance features, now available in some 2016 vehicle models, offer semi-autonomous driving under specific circumstances. Cars will soon have the ability to cruise on freeways and safely navigate traffic jams with minimal driver input. As a result of increasing volumes and technology improvements, as well as cost reductions, it is now feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability.

The industry consensus is that more comprehensive self-driving features will be brought to market by 2020. Such features will enable more complex automated driving, but still require some supervision by a competent driver. However, the obstacles to autonomous functionality are not all technological. While more testing is still needed to develop robustness, the biggest practical hurdles to clear before the rollout of self-driving vehicles to the public are related to liability, regulation, and legislation. In the long term, though, autonomous vehicle technology has the potential to institute major change in personal mobility, particularly in large cities. According to Navigant Research, 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around the world by 2035.

Tesla Model S w/ Autopilot

Tesla Model S w/ Autopilot

This Navigant Research report provides a detailed examination of the emerging market for different levels of fully and semi-autonomous driving. The study provides a discussion of the potential benefits, demand drivers, inhibitors, and technology issues related to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles, as well as profiles of the leading vehicle manufacturers and suppliers. Global market forecasts by region for volumes of vehicles with Level 2, 3, and 4 autonomy, along with the associated revenue, extend through 2035. The report also includes an assessment of how quickly the percentage of vehicles with some autonomous capability will grow within the overall parc of vehicles on the road in each of the six major world regions.

And a quote from Navigant:

“The appeal of self-driving vehicles, however, goes beyond catching the interest of individual drivers and vehicle owners. Some are attracted by a desire for the latest gadget and some are enticed by the knowledge that they will be safer if their driving is monitored by a sophisticated array of sensors that do not get distracted. Longer term, the potential for doing other things while the vehicle is in charge of the mundane aspects of driving will appeal to some people. But as the penetration of automated driving technology—starting with the basic adaptive cruise control—grows, roads will become safer, traffic will move more smoothly, and congestion will be reduced. Once governments recognize the potential, incentives may be introduced that will encourage faster adoption.”

There still remains several hurdles in the way though:

“While more testing is still needed to develop robustness, the biggest practical hurdles to clear before the rollout of self-driving vehicles to the public are related to liability, regulation, and legislation…”

Source: Navigant Research

Categories: General

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16 Comments on "Navigant Research: 85 Million Autonomous Cars To Be Sold Annually By 2035"

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Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

This is nothing but a wild guess. Nobody can possibly predict when State and Federal legislatures will approve self-driving cars to operate on public roads. Nor can anyone predict just how fast the tech will be adopted by auto makers, or how fast the general public will take to the idea of self-driving cars.

Soakee
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Soakee

85 million? Annually? Who (what countries) will buy these? On what data is the 85 million figure based? Who is Navigant? So many questions.

manbitesgas
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manbitesgas

Disruptive technology grows exponentially (like solar for example), so the tech won’t be the problem by 2035. Unfortunately human legal stubbornness is another story… But there is always lobbying! ;oP

Mikael
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Mikael

As for solar and any other new techonolgy exponential growt is not sustainable. Once the techonology starts to become more than just a tiny fraction of a market growth slows down massivly.

Just look at solar in markets where it’s reached more than a couple percent of electricity generation.

Blueberry
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Blueberry

The comparison halts. The hardware/sofrware tech for autonomous driving wouldnt be more than a few 100 bucks for a car in 2035. You should compare with cell phone hardware like camera etc and you will see that the new tech growth continues well above 90% market share.

85 million cars a year with autonomous capability could be reached even earlier imo.

manbitesgas
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manbitesgas

Solar has been growing at compound annual rate of over 40% since 2000. It barely scratched the surface… But this is not about solar.

Indeed, the growth comparison is much more akin to cell phones. In a world of 8 billion people there are over 6 billion cell phones. What “tiny fraction” do you figure that represents? In 1985 McKinsey figured world cell phone market would be less than 1 million by year 2000. They were off by 100 million or so.

In 1900 the world used to be run entirely by horse and carriage. What “tiny fraction” do you figure the car represents now? Disruptive.

I’m not saying exponential growth is indefinite. I’m saying it has massive room to grow. 85 million will be a walk in the park. If the legislation doesn’t halt it…

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

Mikael said:

“As for solar and any other new techonolgy exponential growt is not sustainable. Once the techonology starts to become more than just a tiny fraction of a market growth slows down massivly.”

This is not correct. For disruptive technologies, adoption rate grows exponentially until it attains a large portion of the market share, possibly as much as 25%, before the curve slows and then reverses as the adoption rate approaches 100% and tapers off, in a classic “S” curve (see link below).

Note that the EV revolution has not yet hit the exponential increase portion of the adoption curve.

Gouldness
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Gouldness

I wonder by what year will human driving (on major highways) will be deemed too dangerous and fined or ruled illegal. *This assumes almost 100% adoption, but an interesting thought experiment and a logical conclusion when peoples lives are a statistic.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

I agree, but that probably won’t happen for one-and-a-half generations, at least. Too many people driving old cars for that to happen until most cars not equipped for autonomous driving are no longer being driven.

But we may be less than a generation away from first-world nations prohibiting sale of “street legal” new cars not equipped for fully autonomous driving. Human drivers will still be able to drive off public roads, and to drive older cars.

Someone out there
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Someone out there

This is practically impossible to estimate with any degree of certainty since the fully autonomous car will likely change the car market hugely. If autonomous cars makes car ownership obsolete there might not even be a market for 86 million cars per year at all.

sven
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sven

“If autonomous cars makes car ownership obsolete. . .”

That ain’t gonna happen, ever.

Nick
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Nick
wavelet
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wavelet
Yes, the prediction is ridiculous. First, I don’t see a definition of what they mean by “autonomous”. My definition is that of a fully-autonomous vehicle, meaning it works like a taxi: The passenger tells it where s/he wants to go, and that’s it. There no driver or physical controls at all, with the exception of a red emergency “stop” handle, like on trains. There are several issues: — The relevant SW systems need an enormous amount of testing, because the driving environment is so complex. — Many of the advantages of automated cars require a centralized traffic computer, like air traffic control (e.g., if the computer controls all the cars on a road segment, cars can drive much closer to each other; a car can be told of problems in the near-future path, like an accident 500m ahead that the car’s own sensors don’t know about yet). Dealing with both centrally-controlled and locally-controlled cars on the same road simultaneously is a serious headache. –No board member of a regulatory agency will want to take the risk of being blamed forunforeseen consequences (e.g., hundreds of deaths, even if the net effect is saving lives), so they will be very slow to… Read more »
Mike
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Mike

They are already testing fully autonomous cars on public roads with millions of miles logged. 16 minor accidents, and not a single one was the autonomous cars fault. I don’t think it would be to much of a stretch that they get cleared sooner than you think.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

Right. Google’s newest self-driving cars don’t even have normal driving controls; no steering wheel, no accelerator pedal.

So regulatory approval is already happening, albeit only for testing purposes so far. I think general regulatory approval is gonna happen a lot faster than many people think.

The big headache, which likely will take decades to fully sort out, is the liability issue. Who is responsible for an accident? Who is responsible for a person dying in a traffic accident? The passenger (no longer a “driver”) in the car? The car’s owner? The automobile maker? The software designers? Probably the courts will rule that there is some shared responsibility, perhaps including the car’s passenger, and perhaps not. A huge can of worms!

Loboc
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Loboc

Full autonomy will be an incremental thing. First simple scenarios such as highway driving will be tackled. Then more complex scenarios like low-speed neighborhood driving. Then something like autonomous self parking with no driver. Then peer-to-peer car communications. Finally full autonomy with the driver as a passenger. This won’t happen in only four build cycles. 20 years of 5-year cycles.