Navigant Predicts Plug-In Sales Will Grow By 62% This Year In North America

JUL 2 2016 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 10

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

Navigant Research predicts that plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the US and Canada in 2016 will come close to 200,000 units. If achieved, sales will have grown by 62% year-over-year for the region.

In addition, Navigant predicts significant plug-in electric car sales growth for North America through 2025 (see chart above).

About the numbers/estimates for 2015 by Navigant:

InsideEVs tracks all the sales worldwide, and last year our tally shows that the US and Canada combined to sell ~122,861 plug-ins (with Canada noting ~6,762).  For 2016 YTD, Canada EV sales are up just over 100%, and are expected to end the year around +150% thanks to new (and crazy good) incentives in Ontario that provide up to $14,000 ($10,800 USD) off a new purchase.

6,600 of the 21,000 plug-ins sold in Canada have been the Chevrolet Volt

6,600 of the 21,000 plug-ins sold in Canada have been the Chevrolet Volt

So by our estimates, Canada will sell ~16,905 EVs in 2016, leaving 183,905 to be sold in the US to hit Navigant’s estimates, or an improvement of 57%.  A pretty tall order at this point.

Through June, EV sales have indeed been stronger in the US with ~64,000 plug-ins sold after six months (full monthly US EV sales scorecard can be found here).  And the good news is that plug-in sales are forecasted to be stronger still in the second half; but there is no escaping that the YTD percent increase over 2015 (when 54,347 were sold in H1) currently stands at 18%.  A solid showing, but not the 57% required.

To reach the goal of 200,000 sales, we estimate that 119,000 more EVs would have to be sold in the US, which works out to be 19,833/month – or a 93% increase per month to finish out the year.

In other words, it just isn’t going to happen.  Working very optimistically, you could perhaps pencil in 18,000 for Canada, and a further 14,750 per month on average in the US for the last six months, which would net North America just past 170,000 – for a gain of about 38%.

Toyota Prius Prime will add significant numbers to plug-in sales for US in 2017

Toyota Prius Prime will add significant numbers to plug-in sales for US in 2017

Navigant says that much of the growth in the next few years will come from vehicles such as the Tesla Model X, Chevrolet Volt, Chevrolet Bolt, Prius Prime, Chrysler Pacifica PHEV and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. Looking further into the future, Navigant predicts that the:

 “introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in late 2017 will likely boost the market by about 60% in 2017 and then nearly double the market in 2018 as the first full year of Model 3 sales is achieved.”

Again, see chart above to see impact of Model 3.

Scott Shepard, senior research analyst at Navigant, states:

“The long-range BEV under $40,000 is a marked achievement in the industry. This development is expected to significantly increase PEV adoption past the 1 percent penetration rate it has struggled to surpass in all but a few markets.”

Press release below:

The North American PEV Market Is Expected to Experience 62 Percent Year-over-Year Growth in 2016

While PEV sales have been concentrated on the U.S. West Coast, adoption in Northeastern states is expected to increase

A new report from Navigant Research assesses plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales and populations in the United States and Canada, providing detailed geographic breakdowns of PEV sales and scenario-based forecasts.

During the next few years, significant growth is expected in the North American PEV market. In 2016, growth will be driven by sales of the Tesla Model X, the second-generation Volt, and by the introductions of the Chevrolet Bolt 200-mile range battery electric vehicle (BEV), the Prius Prime plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV later in the year. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @NavigantRSRCH, the North American PEV market in 2016 is expected to grow by around 62 percent year-over-year, nearing 200,000 sales.

“The long-range BEV under $40,000 is a marked achievement in the industry,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst. “This development is expected to significantly increase PEV adoption past the 1 percent penetration rate it has struggled to surpass in all but a few markets.”

Since the PEV market launched in 2011, sales have been concentrated on the U.S. West Coast, but a group of eight Northeastern states is likely to see PEV sales increase considerably as automakers stress BEV deployments and marketing efforts to comply with the region’s mandates for PEV production. According to the report, PEV preferences vary significantly by U.S. region, and consumers in the Northeast appear to demand significantly higher vehicle capabilities and range requirements.

The report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, provides an update to the model results published in Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Market Forecast report, with a specific focus on North America. The study assesses PEV sales and populations in the United States and Canada and provides detailed geographic breakdowns of PEV sales by U.S. state, core based statistical area (CBSA), Canadian province, and Canadian census metropolitan area (CMA). Forecasts are provided under three scenario conditions (conservative, base, and aggressive), alongside results from Navigant Research’s annual Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

Source: Navigant

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10 Comments on "Navigant Predicts Plug-In Sales Will Grow By 62% This Year In North America"

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Don’t worry, once the Bolt is released sales will go through the roof!

Where will GM find those batteries?

In Korea, I assume

I’m not convinced of that. To be honest, I’m expecting the Bolt to sell between 20,000 and 40,000 per year. Not exactly through the roof. If we want sales through the roof, we need to see some well-designed SUV and pickup PHEVs.

Bolt, Prime, Ioniq will hit the market in 2016-Dec and that is not going to help hitting these targets. It’s an overestimate.

But 2017 will surely see the increase.

I agree because these 3 vehicles aren’t likely to even be fully stocked until 2017. My wife keeps saying she wants to buy a Bolt EV this year. But I keep telling her it will probably be next year before that is likely to happen, especially since we live in Texas.

Has anyone else noticed that the curve in the forecast looks wrong – what is shown is typical of maturing industry where things are getting to saturation. This market, OTOH, is going to experience an S-curve soon, def within the next 10 years which is the scope of this report.

Thank you.

I swear, every time I see one of these forecasts from Navigant or Lux, it looks even more ill-informed and more sloppily researched than the last.

I hope nobody, but nobody, is taking these things seriously.

Toyota just dumped the Prius due to lack of sales. Pickup truck and SUV sales are breaking all records and outselling everything else. Edmunds recently announced 75% of PHEV and BEV drivers are choosing ICE vehicles over another EV at trade-in time. None of this is good news for electric cars in the US. Granted, the rest of the world ‘gets it’, but I’m wondering what it will take to get EV sales going in the US.

If the numbers here are true, it’s great news, but I’m starting to be a skeptic about the EV future and skewed numbers. Where is all this positive data coming from in the middle of all the negative press I’m seeing?

I LOVE our Leaf and have been driving Leafs since the 2011 model. I don’t want to be forced to go back to ICE because Americans are too ignorant to transition to EVs.

I do not think the prius is a good buy if you want an electric motor driven vehicle. Most hybrids have a gas engine with a small electric motor that can only go 30 MPH for a short distance. Yes the prius can get some good mileage, however not 100 MPG. Yes a lot of prius have been sold and my Volt can outrace them all not using any gas in a race. When it comes to EVs Toyota did not want to make an EV. However when Tesla had almost 400,000 deposits Toyota changed their minds about EVs.
As for EV sales they are minimal except for Tesla which their manufacturing is at a peak for what they can produce. Once Tesla manufacturing is up to 300,000 or more all EVs will sell. Most likely there will be more public charging and batteries are always improving. Yes the low fuel prices have slowed EV sales, however EVs still save on maintenance and repairs and electricity is always cheaper the petrol