Navigant: Plug-In And Fuel Cell Vehicles To Account For 2.5% Of All Automobiles On The Road By 2035

JUN 19 2014 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 29

Lots Of LEAFs By 2035, We Suspect

Lots Of LEAFs By 2035, We Suspect

In its latest report on the future of plug-in and fuel cell vehicles, Navigant Research attempts to predict the number of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) that will be on roads around the globe by 2035.  Navigant then tries to forecast what percent of those vehicles will be plug-in and fuel cell vehicles.

The conclusion, per Navigant via Green Car Congress, is that “plug-in hybrid (PHEV), battery-electric (BEV), and fuel-cell electric (FCV) together will add up to almost 2.5% of the LDVs in use in 2035.”

2.5% of what figure?  Well, according to Navigant, there will be an estimated 2 billion LDVs in use worldwide in 2035.  2.5% of 2 billion equals 50,000,000, or a hell of a lot of plug in and fuel cell vehicles.

Navigant adds:

“While the landscape for vehicle technologies will change significantly, alterations to the primary fuel landscape will be more modest. LDVs primarily fueled by gasoline will fall as a percentage of the overall global fleet from 82% in 2014 to 75% in 2035. Fuel efficiency gains from diesel engines will increase diesel’s share of the fleet from 16% in 2014 to 19% in 2035. By 2035, more than 4% of vehicles will be fueled by natural gas and less than 1% by hydrogen. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1% of global LDVs in use; however, PEVs (which also includes PHEVs) will represent almost 1.7%.”

Source: Green Car Congress

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29 Comments on "Navigant: Plug-In And Fuel Cell Vehicles To Account For 2.5% Of All Automobiles On The Road By 2035"

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Spec9

Why did they have to use colors that are hard for color-blind people to distinguish. And what the heck is an SSV?

mustang_sallad

I struggled with that too. Start-stop vehicle.

Eric Cote

I really hope the fuel cell portion remains zero or as close to it as possible.

Rick Danger

On this we agree 🙂

Stephen

The text and chart don’t seem to match. I assum CONV = conventional. The chart suggests <50%, but the text says 75% gas + 19% diesel = 94% conventional.
What is "SSV"?

Mr. M

If ssv means start-stop, then all those cars are also driven by conventional fuels.

Driverguy01

Man, they are really clueless about what’s going to happen!
5 years from now, majority of new cars will be electric, not 2.5% in 2035!!!!

I just heard in the news that, in Montreal, 5500 taxis will have to be electric soon.

I say sales will double every year, the change will be huge and fast, as fast as companys build them.

Again:
2012: 57K
2013: 97K
2014: ???

Micke Larsson

So you mean that there will be at least 50 000 000 EV’s sold in 2019 alone?
(half of world production which is over 80 million today and probably over 100 million in five years)

Even in the most optimistic scenario you would not get close to 10 million sales per year by then.

Rob Stark

They are talking about the global fleet not new car sales.

Difficult to produce enough batteries for new car sales to reach BEV market share of over 50% within 5 years.

The world needs 100 GigaFactories to reach 50% market share for BEVs.

Micke Larsson

But only 20 Gigafactories for 50% PHEV’s with decent range.

Rob Stark

Whoever is bold enough to make Gigafactories will be bold enough to make compelling BEVs.

We are past the point of investing billions for half measures.

Micke Larsson

I’m talking about the battery capacity corresponding to a gigafactory. Which car manufacturers will have with battery company partners or with their own factories.

We will see a lot of PHEV’s on the roads when the car companies decide to electrify their most popular models, which will happen sooner rather than later with the demands and regulations for lower emissions.

BEV’s are the future but we will see a shit load of PHEV’s when the big mass enters the EV world.

Steve

Now that the numbers are bigger, sales will not be doubling every year anymore. Maybe 40% increase each year or something like that. And i think that in 5 years electric cars will still be less than 5% of all new cars (but growing fast). Otherwise I agree with you. 2.5% by 2035 is silly. That is a long way off, but I am guessing that most new cars will be plug-in long before then.

mike w

I think they meant all cars on the road and not car sales. And yes I agree in 5 years from now BEV and PHEV sales could easily be 2.5% of the total sales. Still going to take 25 years to get most of the gas burners off the road.

Rick

Dream on, driverguy.

Steve

2.5% by 2035?? Oh please. That is a reasonable guess only if we assume that batteries do not go down in cost, gasoline does not go up in cost, batteries do not get better, no one cares about CO2 emissions, AND Tesla suddenly vanishes.

Unless all of those things happen, we’ll be way above 2.5% by 2035 — yes?

Brian Henderson

To be clear … “on the road” is different than “sales per year”. The 2.5% is of “on the road” vehicles, not sales in 2035.

eg: For USA the are ~250 million vehicles on the road and about 14-16 million new vehicles sold each year. So for 2.5% of 250M is ~6.5M, or ~35% of 16M sold by 2035.

eg: For 0.4% of vehicles to be EVs (BEV + PHEV) would require 1 million accumulated sales. 1% is 2.5 million.

Micke Larsson

If we could keep a pace of sales of EV’s increasing by 30% per year then we could reach 10% of total cars by 2035.
That will be easy enough for the next 5-10 years, but the question is what happens after that.

HVACman

To get to 2.5% in 20 years, Navigant assumes BAU with the oil market, which is a very questionable assumption.

Over the next few years, with the oil-rich Middle East balkanizing, Russia shifting oil sales to the east, off-shore production fading, and the US shale “revolution” petering out, ICE-powered vehicle popularity will plummet. The world economy probably won’t do so good, either, I don’t know how many EV’s will be for sale, but no one will be wanting to invest heavily in new ICE-based cars relying primarily on oil for fuel. It will be a MUCH different world in 2035 than it is now.

Rob Stark

It does not matter where Russia sells its oil.

Oil,with a few tiny exceptions, is sold on the global oil market where price is based on global supply and global demand.

Neither China nor Japan are eager to become Russia’s energy hostage. Who is eager to become the next Ukraine?

For the foreseeable future there will be enough oil to meet demand the question is what the price will be. At $500/barrel oil companies will drill far and wide.

Thomas j. Thias

Mr. Stark, You must have missed this recent deal between Russa and China.

Russia signs 30-year gas deal with China

Via | BBC

“[…]Alexei Miller, Chief Executive of Gazprom said the new deal was “the biggest contract in the entire history of the USSR and Gazprom – over 1 trillion cubic metres of gas will be supplied during a whole contractual period.[…]”

Link Goes To BBC, May 21st, 2014

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27503017

Best-

Thomas J. Thias

Twitter.com/AmazingChevvolt

scott franco

20 years out. That is ridiculous to predict. I believe, if I remember correctly, that there will be zero vehicles on the road because skynet will have killed off humanity.

Seriously, I think a lot of these estimates are based on linear growth. Technology shifts are not linear. In fact EVs (from that last article here) are already showing upward curve growth, and that can only get more extreme.

Me, I stay with my estimate: %25 of USA sales to be electric by 2025. In more than 10 years, a lot can happen. The generations appear to be:

2017 – 200 mile cars for $35k
2020 – Most cars in USA made with aluminum. Most gas cars hybrid and north of 50 miles per gallon as makers try to head off advancing EV purchases. AL EVs could be the rule, and manufacturer costs of EVs falling dramatically. EVs are a rage equivalent to hybrids today.
2013 – EVs start to experience the “upside down” cost curve that will eventually kill ICE engines. That is, it will cost more to make ICE cars than EVs. EVs are long past being a novelty.

jmac

Wow !!!

Just 2.5% Electric Vehicle market penetration by 2035……

“Amazing”.

Or should I say “unbelievable”

These electric car figures are no doubt supplied to us by well meaning but stupid people who also had no idea what was happening when cell phones took off.

Just look at cell phone adoption.

Mr. M

Norway for example has between 7-20% Marketshare for EV since beginning of 2013. But it took until end of April 2014 to reach 1% of all cars to be EVs. So Navigant is saying between 2025-2035 the EV Marketshare will be between 3-7%.

jmac

Mr. M

Okay, I see your point. Yes, it will probably take some time before the majority of vehicles on the road are electric.

Even so, I still think the EV adoption rate will be more like cell phones. Musk himself said it might take twenty years to get all ICE vehicles off the road. I understand that.

I was just trying to say that EV adoption might happen quicker than some might think.

Micke Larsson

Cell phones is a very poor comparison. They are very cheap and with a very short product life. It’s easy to change cell phone brand and to throw one away when you want another one and if you don’t like that one then you can use your old one or just buy a new one.

A car on the other hand is a very big investment, generally the second largest only beaten by your home. It’s a very conservative business, the majority don’t change brand easily once you found one that you like and trust (and if they do it’s often between two or three trusted brands).

And considering the life span which is about 10 times as long then a 5 year transition for cell phones is still comparable to a 50 year transition for cars.

Micke Larsson

Oh… and what Musk said is that even if all cars sold today were electric then it would take at least 20 years to get all ICE’s of the road.
Which means that in the most optimistic of views we are talking about 30-40 years.

Bernard Gibson

So far,there is little emphasis on mass production of’green’vehicles,other than cars.What about, for instance,motorhomes?
Watch out for the NISSA DORMER!

QCO

A key part of the problem is that automobiles are a long life cycle product with huge embedded supply chains, therefore it takes a long time to propagate a major technical change.

The average age of cars in the US has increased to over 11 years, mainly due to greatly improved reliability and the high cost of replacement relative to incomes. That means the majority of the ICE cars sold today will still be here in 2025.

The existing supply chains built up over a century are so massive that it would take decades to build battery factories of sufficient scale to displace current products. This is a practical limitation on annual EV sales that helps make the Navigant numbers believable (although I think they are a bit low).