Navigant: Penetration Of BEVs And PHEVs In Medium- And Heavy-Duty Truck Segments Will Stay Low By 2035


Nissan e-NT400

Nissan e-NT400

Navigant Research recently released a report title “Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles” in which it indicates that electrification of trucks will be rather slow.

According to data, the number of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in use worldwide will nearly double between now and 2035. Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) will grow even two times faster as their market share will increase from 5.0% to 11.2% by 2035, but most of them are propane autogas and natural gas vehicles.

Despite this growth, all-electric, plug-in hybrid or fuel cell trucks will have less then 1% market share by 2035.

The only positive thing about this is that in 2035, EV sales probably will be much higher than 1% of market share. In Norway, we observe over 1% electric cars in use with over 10% market share in sales.

Anyways, we don’t know the future but 1% in 20 years is rather a pessimistic view for EV enthusiasts and as true believers, and as such we can’t agree with this prediction. If Navigant Research is right, diesel will be the king for at least one more generation.

“The total number of MHDVs in use worldwide will nearly double between 2014 and 2035, according to the report.  Unlike light duty vehicles, most of today’s MHDVs are fueled by diesel fuel.  While diesel will remain the primary fuel choice of MHDVs throughout the forecast period, the percentage of MHDVs powered by diesel is expected to fall from more than 79 percent in 2014 to 76 percent in 2035.”

Source: Navigant Research via Green Car Congress

Category: Trucks

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7 responses to "Navigant: Penetration Of BEVs And PHEVs In Medium- And Heavy-Duty Truck Segments Will Stay Low By 2035"
  1. Mike says:

    That’s a prediction that will undoubtably be wrong.
    Truck sales are already moving toward smaller engines. Give them a hybrid and they will buy.

  2. Mike says:

    Esp. now in Europe, with Putin threatening a Blockade, you should see EV van and truck sales explode.

    1. Mikael says:

      A blockade of oil would hurt Russia much more than it would hurt the rest of Europe so that won’t happen.
      But it might at least work as a wake up call of some kind hopefully.

      1. Spec9 says:

        Yeah, Putin would never do a blockade since Russia is completely dependent on oil revenues. I’d much rather see Europe decide to purchase less oil & gas from them as punishment and moving to electrified vehicles is a good way to do it.

  3. Mikael says:

    Smaller trucks and vans will probably be electric sooner rather than later.

    But the heavy trucks is a hard nut to crack. Renewable fuels can be used for a percentage of the energy. For all renewable fuels we need to see some kind of break through.

    Electrifying the highways, just getting the most important routes electrified will make a big difference. It might work at least in first world countries with good infrastructure.

  4. Spec9 says:

    That is just their wild guess. This is a prediction that requires amazing abilities to determine technology changes, needs, oil prices, battery prices, etc. I suspect that they are very much wrong and that PHEVs will become pretty damn popular as a way of saving gasoline yet having lots of power and range.

  5. Patrick says:

    Trucks are going hybrid… just not electric. They are using hydraulic hybrids. When the truck brakes it turns a hydraulic pump and pressureizes fluid to extremely high levels and then releases it to power hyd motors when aceleration is needed. no batteries, no plugins just good old reliably hyd systems.