Navigant: Annual Plug-In Electric Car Sales In North America To Exceed 1.1 Million By 2024

2 years ago by Inside EVs Staff 21

2015 Nissan LEAF

2015 Nissan LEAF

2016 Chevrolet Volt From Chicago Auto Show (Image: Mike Anthony/InsideEVs)

2016 Chevrolet Volt From Chicago Auto Show (Image: Mike Anthony/InsideEVs)

Navigant Research has released a report that predicts annual U.S. plug-in electric car sales for 2024.

The report “analyzes the North American market for light duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including detailed geographic forecasts of PEV sales by U.S. state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected U.S. utility service area.”

Focusing on North America as a whole, the report concludes the following:

“With more than 133,000 PEVs sold in 2014, North America is currently the world’s strongest market for these vehicles. While regional sales are concentrated in California, where both state incentives and a mandatory Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Program drive PEV penetration, the market is expected to continue to grow in other states and Canada. According to a new report from Navigant Research, North American PEV sales are expected to exceed 1.1 million annually by 2024.”

Additional findings in the Navigant press release below:

Annual Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales in North America Are Expected To Exceed 1.1 Million by 2024

PEV concentration in metropolitan areas is expected to push utilities to develop strategies for PEV load mitigation, report finds

A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the North American market for light duty plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including detailed geographic forecasts of PEV sales by U.S. state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), Canadian province, Canadian city, and selected U.S. utility service area.

With more than 133,000 PEVs sold in 2014, North America is currently the world’s strongest market for these vehicles. While regional sales are concentrated in California, where both state incentives and a mandatory Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Program drive PEV penetration, the market is expected to continue to grow in other states and Canada. Click to tweet: According to a new report from Navigant Research, North American PEV sales are expected to exceed 1.1 million annually by 2024.

“Automaker adoption of PEV technologies as adaptations for existing model lines is growing significantly, and these technologies are being placed into larger vehicle segments such as sport utility vehicles (SUVs), trucks, and minivans,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “Similarly, the introduction of next-generation, fully electric vehicles with ranges near or over 200 miles and price points below $40,000 is expected to drastically increase mass-market PEV acceptance as a pragmatic transportation option.”

Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S

While PEVs today represent a marginal increase in load for utilities, according to the report, PEV concentration in metropolitan areas is expected to push utilities to develop strategies for load mitigation in concert with regulatory authorities. Utilities serving these metro areas, particularly in California, have been at the forefront of developing advanced demand-side management programs for residential PEV charging and vehicle-grid integration, and those in emerging North American PEV markets expected to follow suit, creating new opportunities for energy aggregators and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) service providers.

The report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including U.S. states, MSAs, and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities. The study estimates the number of vehicles that are expected to be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario and geographic area, extend through 2024. The study also provides analysis of Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle (EV) Consumer Survey, which was used to develop the PEV demographic profile. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

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21 responses to "Navigant: Annual Plug-In Electric Car Sales In North America To Exceed 1.1 Million By 2024"

  1. TAP says:

    This is a disappointment for EV advocates, if you consider that the total market for new autos in North America is something like 20 million. This means that they expect EV penetration to remain very low — 5% of the total NA market, 10 years from now!

    1. ffbj says:

      Your numbers are way off, though ev’s do remain a small segment of new vehicle sales, I think within 10 years they could get near 20% of all new vehicles sold. This is based on the advent of mass marketing of 200 mile range around 35k middle market cars.

  2. Cavaron says:

    Annual US car sales have been between 5m-12m units:
    http://www.statista.com/statistics/199974/us-car-sales-since-1951/

    1m could be something between 10-20%.

    If they really count every car with a plug, imho that number will be much higher in 2024.

    1. TAP says:

      The study was based on North American volume–that includes Canad and Mexico!

      1. Mikael says:

        Well, there are a lot more countries in North America than the US, Canada and Mexico. But the other countries don’t sell that many EV’s (or really that many cars either in comparison).

        1. Clif J says:

          What?

          1. Ambulator says:

            Geologically, North America most logically refers to Panama and all the countries to its north. Sometimes the term is used just for the USA, Canada and Mexico. Other divisions are also possible.

  3. Stimpy says:

    These theories seem to all be based on gradual demand increase. I think if/when the 200 mi range, sub $40k, expanded quick charge network all happens then the demand will take on hockey stick growth.

    At that point why would you buy the vastly inferior and (already now) more costly to run ICE vehicle?

    1. Lensman says:

      Right. These “research company” projections all assume straight-line growth of a market.

      The reality is somewhat different:

      http://bizshifts-trends.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/curve-s-curve.gif

      That’s why all these projections are utterly useless. We don’t know just when PEV sales will take off into sustained exponential growth, but we know it will eventually happen.

  4. Someone out there says:

    I think it will be very hard to sell a pure ICE car after 2020. The vast majority will at least have a plug but I do think that BEV will have come so far by then that selling any car that requires fossil fuel will be difficult.

    1. Mikael says:

      There will not be enough models nor enough production capacity for that to be remotely possible in 5 years from now.

    2. liberty says:

      2024 is not that far away. Oil fell again to under $52/bbl. Hybrids only sold only 452 thousand in the US last year, and this year will be less. The rest of north america didn’t add much to this total. I’m a plug-in fan, but price and convenience will keep the bulk of north america from changing quickly to plug-ins. I don’t think the 1.1M is a bad number.

    3. Clif J says:

      Already true mid sized cars (Camry, Malibu, Fusion, Altima) can reliably achieve combined fuel consumption figures in the 30mpg range with no drivability detriment. Weight continues to decline, performance is solid (0-100km/hr in low 9s) and improvements continue apace. 2016 will see some standard 5 pax sedans (like Malibu) with lots of comfort options and mileage moving up to 32 mpg combined, and with all that selling at under $30k. A putative 200mi EV for $35k after tax relief cannot compete even with $4/gal gas.

      We are probably three years away at most from two or three brands with more downsized 3-cyl engines making 150hp in sub-3000lb bodies getting 35-38mpg combined. By then the world-beating EV will need to be 250 mi or more for $30k.

      Will EVs take over. Perhaps. But the playing field is not static, and as we find more oil and use less in cars with the range, convenience and all-weather capability of petrol, EVs will have to get better faster. 10% market share for Plug-ins (Volt-ish) I can see in 10 years. 10% for true BEV’s? Far less likely.

  5. Loboc says:

    There are not enough different models or manufacturing capacity to do much more than this. Zero penetration into the light truck market as well. (Ford sells more F150 units than Toyota sells Corollas.)

    10 years is only two model runs at most auto makers. This is a pretty huge lift in a short time.

    We hear a lot of talk from manufacturers about electrifying their fleets, but, it ain’t all that easy.

    1. Lensman says:

      It only takes two years for an auto maker to develop and start producing a new model. It only takes two years for a battery maker to build a new factory and fine-tune it for efficient mass production.

      Nine years will be a long time, once batteries improve to the point that a BEV can be truly competitive against a gasmobile. The market will shift a lot faster than you think.

      Remember what happened when DVDs were introduced? Remember how fast VHS became obsolete? It won’t happen that fast, because the costs and effort required to tool up for building a new model of car are enormous. But it will happen a lot quicker than you think, once the average car buyer sees BEVs as preferable to gasmobiles.

      1. Roy_H says:

        I agree. There are a number of things that have to happen, mostly cost competitive and range. But once EVs are seen to have the upper hand the market will skyrocket for EVs and ICEs will die a quick death. Just really hard to put a date on when that will happen.

      2. Ambulator says:

        The Bolt is due out in 2017. I don’t know when GM started on it, but I doubt it was started any later than 2014. The Bolt development is considered to be very quick.

  6. Epicurus says:

    How about a nationwide system of fast chargers?

    Do we really want clean air and water? Do we want to see the end of horrific oil spills like the BP Gulf disaster or the recent spill off the coast of Santa Barbara? Government can do a lot to make plug-in adoption faster.

    Norway provides numerous incentives and infrastructure, and their market share for EVs is almost 20%.

    1. Clif J says:

      “Numerous incentives” include:
      exemption from 25% VAT and other purchase taxes that otherwise raise the purchase price of a car 80-110%
      no tolls or municipal access fees, which are otherwise in the hundreds of $US annually
      free parking in many areas
      formerly special access to bus and HOV lanes (which may no longer be true)

      So yes, if you penalize a car owner roughly the average annual US per capita income but then relieve the penalty for an EV purchase, you could dramatically increase the adoption of EVs in this country.

  7. islandboy says:

    Two points.First is a guy that was brought to our attention on this very site, Tony Seba. Here he is talking about his projections for the cost trajectory for battery electric vehicles:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RBkND76J91k#t=926

    Second is the price of oil. Contrary to what the drill baby, drill crowd would have us believe, the earth’s center is NOT made of crude oil so, the world started running out the day the first oil well was drilled. If you take a hard look at what fracking is, you will realize that the industry must be getting pretty desperate to go after oil using this very expensive technique. Add to that the fact that most of the operators currently using fracking are loosing their shirts at current prices and you will realize that, the price will probably not stay down much longer and some guesses are that it will rise into record territory in the next few years (<5).

    I'm calling BS on this one. A quick spreadsheet has sales exceeding 1 million by 2020, if they grow from the current numbers by only 40% per year. My guess is that plug in sales will exceed 1 million before 2020. Tesla alone hopes to be selling half of that by 2018!

    1. Clif J says:

      islandboy, the proponents of abiogenic petroleum are few. So let’s not mischaracterize all the people who have more accurately predicted the discovery of oil deposits than you have.

      Even Rosneft’s projections, which are much steeper than Exxon or CNOOC, see a flattening demand for oil. XOM says that in 2040 global oil consumption will have only risen by 35% despite a near tripling in GDP. We are currently finding it as fast as we are using it, though projecting that well into the future is not wise.

      The Saudis are a good case. 200Bbbls known reserves as of 1990. In the ensuing quarter century they pumped about 8.5MBbbl/day. 3 BILLION barrels per year. They pumped more than a third of their known reserves from that time!!

      Today’s Saudi reserves? About 250Bbbl by most estimates.

      It will not go on forever. But as we find more and use less per unit of work the timeline is pretty long to “run out”.

      BTW, I would LOVE to see your “quick spreadsheet” that accurately predicts sales of anything 5 years hence.