Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Plus Model Y Sales To Be Half Of Global EV Market By 2020

SEP 8 2017 BY MARK KANE 29

A battery electric vehicle sales report released by IHS and Morgan Stanley Research forecasts strong growth of volume, driven by Tesla Model 3 and Model Y (CUV).

Tesla Model 3 (wallpaper 2,560x)

Tesla hopes for 500,000 sales annually and even more when adding in the upcoming Model Y. However in this case, the IHS report is more conservative, but even at lower results Tesla is expected to take half of global electric car sales by 2020.

Well, Tesla does have the Model 3 today, and the battery Gigafactory, but the Model Y still hasn’t presented itself and there will be probably need for a new assembly plant, as Fremont will not handle well over million car production (S + X + 3 + Y).  Can Tesla hit such a volume to take 50% by 2020?  Is it possible.

Another question is whether the other manufacturers combined really will be muted, or will they also try for volume sales?  Quite honestly, we think the report is a bit out to lunch, as basic CARB, EU, and Chinese mandates will push sales much higher.  The Chinese targets alone are staggering.

Even the recently debuted 2018 Nissan LEAF (details), has that Japanese company looking for a doubling (if not tripling) of sales just next year alone (sales of the LEAF should end 2017 with around ~50,000 units sold).  Whatever the results end up being, the numbers just keep going up!

source: IHS, Morgan Stanley via Electrek

Categories: General, Tesla

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29 Comments on "Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Plus Model Y Sales To Be Half Of Global EV Market By 2020"

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Love it – amazing

Missing the Outlander PHEV but includes the i-MiEV ??

Traditional auto makers Love PHEV’s because it’s great for their “Parts Business” Now you have “TWO” Power Trains instead of “ONE”…The more they “complicate” Cars and the more Cars become Vulnerable to breakages … Henry Ford was quoted saying, “I can give away every car I Build, and make my Profit by just by selling Parts.

That’s simply not true. In a Volt for example, the engine is far more reliable because the battery lets it operate in a better RPM range, and the battery is less stressed because the engine prevents additional cycling once the battery is depleted.

As one commenter said on this site recently, the sum of the parts is better than their individual capabilities. Or something like that haha.

But because of this, an engine with 500,000 miles on it hasn’t seen anywhere near the west a normal engine would at that interval.

As to parts cost, well, GM hasn’t had to replace a single battery due to capacity loss, so….

Where are the Model S and X in that chart? Are they being discontinued?

VW is also missing, but they list the iMiev. So many cars missing it isn’t funny. So much wrong with their numbers that it isn’t even worth correcting. But we are certain to see it wielded in the hands of anti-Tesla and anti-EV trolls to say that Morgan Stanley says EV sales will be less than 750K cars 5 years from now, and Tesla TM3 sales will only be around 100K cars/yr for the next 5 years. Utter rubbish.

The S/X are not being discontinued, but my interest in shoddy Morgan Stanley research is certainly being discontinued.

It’s a fake. Y is not out, iMev ELR and i5 is discontinue,

They need to successfully get through “production hell” first and manage to build the X & Y at a profit. Godspeed, Tesla workers.

The total EV sales in the world is expected to pass one million this year, say something about how wrong this prediction is.


Not only are Tesla model S and X missing, so is the Bolt. Or, is that supposed to be the unlabeled light blue on the top?

Also, no Prius Prime? You would think they could manage to include more than 1 (Volt) of the top 5 selling EVs this year!

I was flabbergasted that the Bolt wasn’t even on there. I think looks like a pretty bad analysis.

The chart leaves out the Model S and the Model X, while including models with such tiny sales as the ELR and the i8? WTF?

And what’s up with including only two Chinese EVs?

As usual, what a so-called “analyst” is predicting for the near-to-medium-term future of EVs calls more for pointing and laughing than anything else!

I think the Model 3 can capture 50% of the international PEV (Plug-in EV) market only if the so-called “international” market does not include China.

“we think the report is a bit out to lunch”
This ^^

These numbers seem very low, across the board. Pulled the graph into an editor to get a read on how many they’re predicting for Model 3 and Model Y.
In 2019, they’re predicting Model 3 worldwide sales at ~170K and Model Y worldwide sales at ~120K. From 2019, the sales are static through 2023.
In 2019, they are predicting the Nissan Leaf sales are static from 2018. I think the 60kWh pack in MY 2019 should bump sales considerably.

This chart is an oil baron’s wet dream.

Given the approximately 85,000 additional pre-orders for the Model 3 in the “down time” between the announcement and the first 30 delivery event, it seems likely the extended demand for the Model 3 is going to be between 100,000-170,000 a year.

Where I think they got it wrong for that car specifically is Tesla is going to be pumping out these cars like crazy until they get through the pre-orders. So the 2018 & 2019 Model 3 production numbers are going to be essentially as many as Tesla can make. If they can get to 20,000 a month, then that’s 240,000 cars a year.

worthless chart

As an long term TSLA investor, I am thrilled to see Tesla’s future prospect, but I think the MS outlook is too optimistic. 2020 is only a little over 2 years away – I doubt Tesla will be able to roll out the Y by that time. If they can manage to produce as many Model 3 as consumers want it, they would be in great shape. If the Y arrives and become widely available by 2021, the sky is the limit.

I think the Model Y will be out by 2020, but I don’t think we will see a prototype for 12 months. Tack on 18 months to that for release date and you are mid-2020 for the first to roll out. That gives Tesla maybe 1 month of 25% production capacity on the Model Y in 2020. Honestly, I think we are going to see a China-based Tesla factory before then, and it may hit some serious numbers with the three current Tesla passenger vehicles.

These numbers are garbage, agreed. Bolt? VW anything? Ford, Fiat, Hyundai… Most of the regular commentators on Inside EVs are more reliable than this neophyte, or big oil shill, as some observe.

So the one graph I’m waiting for is manufacturing predictions on the heavy freight trucks.

2020 is only a little over 2 years away – I doubt Tesla will be able to roll out the Y by that time.

It depends on how far along Tesla already is in TMY production. But whether or not the Model Y will have had its debut by 2020, it certainly won’t have had time to ramp up production very far.

As just about everybody has commented, this “analysis” is downright ridiculous.

Pencil’s down for design on the Model 3 was 7/2016. By 7/2017 the first cars were rolling off the assembly line.

2019 is entirely possible. Especially since Elon announced that the Y (if it is called the Y) will be based upon the Model 3 chassis.

The chart, as others have noted, is trash.

What is ‘EV’ on the chart listed in green? Why does the light blue not have a name? What intern is responsible for this analysis?

I wonder if this chart was created back in 2013 or 2014. That would explain a lot.

All EV sales projections are largely garbage especialy poorly researched ones like this…
A much more interesting Morgan Stanley chart pegs the cost to build a 50kw EV today in 2017 at 19,500 Euros…
Now that says how over priced EV offerings are today with little competion and little incentive legacy manufactures have to produce them outside of Norway and China…

Wow, if I visited a farm today I could say that I saw BS twice but sadly I didn’t and only see it here.

They include a car that doesn’t exist yet but then dont include cars we know will be in the market by 2020 or are already out, what a load of it,..

Where’s WV e-Up!, VW e-Golf etc.?

This chart is so flawed I can’t believe you bothered even mentioning it.

Serial anti tesla troll thomas

Half of global…maybe without China. But the big question is if the non-profit organisation Tesla will make money in any future.

Only 20,000 cars difference between 2016 and 2017! That sounds to little.

No mention of SparkEV means this study is complete nonsense. Yes, SparkEV is discontinued, but they mention other discontinued cars like ELR and iMiev. Heck, they didn’t even include cars that are currently being sold like Fiat 500e.