Morgan Stanley Not Concerned Over Predicted Decline In North American Tesla Model S Sales


Model S

Model S

On Wednesday May 7, Tesla Motors will officially release Q1 results for 2014.  We’ll have extensive coverage following Tesla’s announcement, but until then here’s what Morgan Stanley predicts we’ll see in Tesla’s Q1 results.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says that it’s likely and reasonable to assume that Tesla Model S deliveries will show a decline in North America, as compared to Q1 results from 2013.  Our own scorecard shows that, in the US, Model S sales will be down for Q1 2014.

  • Tesla Model S sales US Q1 2014: 3,800 estimated
  • Tesla Model S sales US Q1 2013: 4,900 actual

Not to worry though as Morgan Stanley doesn’t see declining North American sales as indication that demand is weakening.  Instead, Morgan Stanley points to Tesla’s commitment to push the Model S into international markets and to focus intensely on delivering its Model S overseas.

North America accounted for 90% of Tesla’s 2013 deliveries, but that won’t be the case in 2014.  As Value Walk states:

“Despite the possibility of a sales drop in North America this year, Morgan Stanley said it’s not concerned fundamentally. The research firm still has an Overweight rating on the stock. However, for a company like Tesla Motors Inc, which is riding on expectations of revolutionary growth, any miss in the coming earnings report may trigger some volatility. Morgan Stanley expects Tesla Motors to miss on the headline number.”

Tesla Q1 2014 Estimates Versus Q1 2013 Actuals

Tesla Q1 2014 Estimates Versus Q1 2013 Actual

Source: Value Walk

Categories: Tesla

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8 Comments on "Morgan Stanley Not Concerned Over Predicted Decline In North American Tesla Model S Sales"

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Surprised you did not quote Jonas saying that Tesla Motors was the most important company in the market. Those were pretty strong words from the Morgan Stanley analyst.

Sell side analyst. Be careful.


I assumed model X sales would slow down the Model S sales….

the model x is targeted for a different market segment, so I would not expect much (if any impact) on model s sales.

Look at that Gross Margin – 27.5%!

The big uptick in spending came from SG&A – double from last year.

I wonder how that is broken down between store construction, store operations, SuperCharger construction and SuperCharger operation…

SG&A is not included in gross margin.

Powertrain sales will jump this year with the Mercedes B Class Electric shipping in July.