Moody’s: BEVs Comprise 8% Global Vehicle Sales By 2025, 19% By 2030

electric vehicle sales

FEB 3 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 42

Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3 aims to make up a substantial part of the growth of electric vehicle sales globally. (Image Credit: Mark F)

In an attempt to portray forward momentum and satisfy emissions requirements, global automakers are pushing forward with electric vehicle sales.

According to a recent report from Moody’s Investors Service, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) should comprise about seven to eight percent of new vehicle sales globally by the middle of the 2020s. Currently, global BEV sales haven’t eclipsed the one percent mark. Moody’s went on to say that by the end of the decade (2030), BEV sales will climb to 17 to 19 percent.

Electric vehicle sales

GM’s Chevy Bolt EV (seen here flanked by the automaker’s “future” EVs).

The firm cites decreasing battery costs as the primary influencer of the surge by 2030. Despite Moody’s focus on BEVs, this is not to say that other forms of vehicle electrification will not also rise. If we include plug-in hybrids in the equation, or even fuel cell vehicles, market saturation will prove higher. Bruce Clark, Moody’s Senior Vice President and lead automotive analyst, shared:

“One of the auto industry’s major areas of focus for the past 10 years has been improving fuel economy and preparing to meet increasingly burdensome emission-reduction rules, and battery electric vehicles are an extension of this. But BEVs will require significant capital investment by automakers, generate low returns until the early 2020s and face hurdles to achieving broader consumer acceptance.”

Global automakers are compelled to follow suit, partly due to the need to keep up with changing technology, as well as staying ahead of competitors. There’s also a substantial media impact that plays a role, as new automakers like Tesla attract wide popularity. Though, in the end, it really comes down to the changing emissions standards.

In the U.S., adoption is growing quickest in California, and other California Air Resource Board states, due to stricter emissions policies. However, in other U.S. states, growth is not as prevalent. In Europe and Asia, several countries have already announced and started the implementation of plans to banish fossil fuels completely by a specified date.

Interestingly, many automakers are publicly pushing against such mandates, all while making major announcements about moving to vehicle electrification.

Source: Green Car Congress

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42 Comments on "Moody’s: BEVs Comprise 8% Global Vehicle Sales By 2025, 19% By 2030"

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CDAVIS
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CDAVIS

Article Title: “Moody’s: BEVs Comprise 8% Global Vehicle Sales By 2025, 19% By 2030”
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CDAVIS Prediction: BEVs Comprise 17% Global Vehicle Sales By 2025, of which 40% of those sales will be Tesla.

Another Euro point of view
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Another Euro point of view

Agreed, 8% by 2025 is way too pessimistic. Wasn’t it also those guys who predicted less than 10’000 Tesla model 3 delivered in 2017 ? Thoroughly lacking credibility ;-p

ffbj
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ffbj

Right, and your comparison is completely valid.
One involved a year and one manufacturer, and the other almost a decade involving many manufacturers.
Sure that is wonderful example of a stretch to make a point. Do you work for Moody’s, since they are full of it, just like you.

Brandon
Guest

The percentage of market share that EVs will have globally compared to the U.S. (and even Europe) is no doubt going to be less, because there are many regions of the world (think third world and even developing countries) where there is no way that in 7 years from now there will be 15%+ adoption. In the U.S. and Europe, and China yes most definitely it can happen, but globally, from all I’ve seen, 8% is a good reasonable forecast.

Robb Stark
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Robb Stark

The industrialized world plus China will go heavy EV.

The Indian government is making a big push for EVs but it remains to be seen how that translates on the ground.

The Rest of the World buys very few new cars relative to the above. Increasingly the used car market that exports to the developing world will have higher and higher BEV content.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

“The percentage of market share that EVs will have globally compared to the U.S. (and even Europe) is no doubt going to be less…”

No, I think it’s safe to predict that EV market share will grow faster in Europe than it will here in the USA. Gasoline prices are much higher there, and various European governments have already announced plans for restricting emissions and restricting gasmobiles; plans which go far beyond any serious proposal by politicians in the USA.

I’ve been surprised that it took longer in Europe than here in the USA, for EV sales to start showing significant numbers. But now that it’s started, growth there is already faster than it is here. That trend will almost certainly continue. Why wouldn’t it? It’s not like we’re going to see the U.S. government increase the gasoline sales tax by even 50¢, let alone raise it to parity with the European tax!

Some Guy
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Some Guy

I think that many will be in for a surprise how fast the transition to EVs will accelerate. I talked to a friend of mine recently who works in middle management for a semi truck manufacturer. The official press releases say that they will also offer electric options in 2-3 years. Internally they are all hands on deck trying to turn the ship around before they hit the ICEberg.
The market research department of said manufacturer has done the math on the Tesla semi and concluded that they will not be able to sell a single Diesel powered semi truck by 2028, neither will be their competitors, given the electric offerings available in the future.
I expect similar for the car market. I mean, look at Smart Car sales in Europe. In December, 2 out of 5 Smart Cars sold in Germany were all-electric, despite the low range and high cost and the inability to fast charge. Waiting list is a year at the moment.
When there is an offer for electrics that is not totally botched or unavailable, people will buy it over the gas variant.

Robert Weekley
Guest

I have a coworker who is already leaning towards the eGolf, but the new 40 kWh Leaf gives him more go to work range comfort for his commute!

Inspite of our home province of Ontario announcing some new Workplace EV Charging promotions and funding up to 80% and up to $7,500 per EVSE, my employer is still dragging their feet (& we have been pushing them to plan this for a few years, so they should be ready)!

However, if they got on with this, we could qualify for up to 50 Charging stations, and that, managed right, could support up to 150 workers (we work 3 shifts)!

It would also tip the scales for employees living in apartments, or condos to move to a vehicle with a plug!

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

Right. Considering what’s happening in the bus market, and how evs are taking over that space. An example of rapid adoption.

Threader
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Threader

I hope Oil hits over $100 US a barrel and stays north of that forever. Cheap Dino juice isn’t not helping EV adoption. Coincide that with lower prices of EVs and we have a recipe for greater adoption. Governments need to raise or initiate their levels of incentives for apartment/flat dwellers to have access to have access to level 2 charging.

G2
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G2

(eyes roll at old tune played over and over…)

Gasbag
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Gasbag

It is much more effective to charge something like $20-30 dollars a barrel duty on oil and use the revenue for infrastructure and incentives.

Mikael
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Mikael

About 2/3’s of oil is used for vehicles.

And only about 14% are used for non-energy applications.

$100 per barrel is a great idea. $1000 per barrel even better.

Will
Guest
Will

Transportainon of goods and service is still oil base. Americans dont want to ever go back $4-5 gas it will damage the economy and this goverenment has adopted the drill baby drill

Mikael
Guest
Mikael

It will rather help the economy since it will force the transition into more efficient vehicles.

Wasting energy or money is NEVER good for the economy. Efficiency is one of the absolutely best things an economy could ever get.

With more efficient cars the US could either export oil or reduce the import and improve the trade balance, absolutely great things for the economy.

Will
Guest
Will

Which cost money and they hemmorge thier cash flow and profits

menorman
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menorman

No one gives a single care about whether the American consumer is looking forward to $4 gas. Already, it’s near or over $3 in some American markets and the traders are already asking if it isn’t too soon to look for $100 oil. The US government doesn’t control the price of oil and since the current administration apparently also thinks that a weak dollar is a strong dollar, the incentive to cap oil prices is not there. In short, gas prices will likely continue rising this year, especially if there’s another supply disruption event like Hurricane Harvey.

Will
Guest
Will

Like i said it cost money which they are not willing to spend since it cost more then $100 a barrel

Bunny
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Bunny

And as long as the fuel surcharge model is used for the entire for hire trucking industry there’s not much incentive for both truckload and ltl to go EV , as long as your fleet is above the average in efficiency they actually make money on higher fuel prices.
We’ve probably hit peak gasoline but no where near peak diesel, it just keeps growing and will continue to do so for some time.

Gasbag
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Gasbag

High oil prices would cripple our economy,

That postulate has been proffered before and was tested in recent years. Prices of petrol in Europe and California thouroughly refute your assertion.

menorman
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menorman

If cheap oil is what you want, then you should be cheering for EV options of all stripes because a cratering of demand will diminish the price. Of course, trains obviously can be operated on electricity because they are in many other parts of the world and electric planes are beginning to enter the conversation as serious alternatives. In short, the potential downside for oil is nearly bottomless.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

I take it, from your remarks, that either you get income from Big Oil or else you own Big Oil stocks?

Petroleum is heavily used to make plastics, but only because it’s cheap to do so. That could easily be replaced by sugar, at only a slightly higher price.

We will certainly see ships and trains move to BEV powertrains as battery tech advances. It’s only a question of time.

Most planes will still be powered by aviation fuel, as electric motors can’t push the planes at jet speed. But as cheap petroleum runs out, aviation will shift to using synthetic aviation fuel rather than a petroleum-based supply.

None of this will happen overnight, and likely not within the next few years. But it’s certainly coming. In fact, if you look at how Big Oil is beginning to diversify into renewable energy, it seems pretty obvious that they’re well aware of what you’re blind to.

Bunny
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Bunny

Delta airlines owns its own oil refinery to keep its fuel prices down

G2
Guest
G2

Moodys certainly will get a bonus for publishing this rear guard FUD from their LICE paymasters.

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

With many cities banning emitting vehicles in the future, it’s going to be kind of tough for ices to operate there.
So no Moody’s, you are way off.

Broader consumer acceptance?
What do you call 4 years worth of back-log for the Model 3, chopped liver?
Sorry, Moody’s your study is trash.

Will
Guest
Will

no its called analytics, 500k in a market here that sells 13mill cars and trucks a year and not including the other markets that some of the 500k is going too plus if the reservation is completed for these orders

menorman
Guest
menorman

Once Tesla begins delivering TM3 in earnest, it will gallop to a premier position in its market segment as people abandon alternatives for the 3. When coupled with the general ongoing decline in sedan sales, I fully expect that Tesla will be able to deliver enough Model 3s to be in the top-10 bestseller list for 2018.

ffbj
Guest
ffbj

They are cost competitive. Look at what Tesla did to the luxury sedan market. They have the the top selling model in that market.

Now they are going to do the same thing in the 40k-50k market, with the Model 3. It will just take more time, as that is a much larger market, and it will take time to produce that many cars.
But now it’s just a difficult logistics problem, not a fundamental one.

Mikael
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Mikael

The big problem is still getting the automakers fully on board and getting enough models out there in enough quantity to satisfy demand.

And then for battery cell manufacturers to satisfy the orders from the car manufacturers.

I don’t know how fast the Chinese can flood the car markets in Europe/USA with BEVs, that could be a game changer.

Roy_H
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Roy_H

Moody, like many others simply look at the adoption curve in the past and extrapolate into the future. This does not take into account efforts by some companies (Nissan & Tesla) to accelerate adoption aggressively. Nor does it take into account new laws promoting BEVs.

John
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John

I love how Big Oil still likes to ignore the EV elephant in the room and make claims that EV’s don’t cut into their bottom line and won’t do so going forward.

I also love how folks still maintain that gasoline is still “cheap.” For the first time in awhile I actually looked at a gas station sign in Northern Nevada and it read: $3.05, $3.15, and $3.25. Maybe I’m a cheapo, but fuel over $3 per gallon doesn’t seem very cheap to me..

Mikael
Guest
Mikael

Anything below $8 per gallon is cheap.

South Waves
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South Waves

+1 Gasoline price in the US is too low compared to the rest of the world (even in Brazil it would be around $6.5). No one likes to spend their money on “running” costs. With Gasoline at $6/9 you’d be in a situation where your gas monthly bill would be higher than the car’s lease payment, at this point switching to a BEV would be no-brainer

Get Real
Guest
Get Real

LMAO at Moody’s.

Your classic deception-based corporation for hire that just paid hundreds of millions of dollars in fines over their lying credit ratings on sub-prime mortgages that greatly helped crash the entire world’s economy:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moody-s-credit/moodys-pays-864-million-to-u-s-states-over-pre-crisis-ratings-idUSKBN14X2LP

If their was any justice in the US, they would have had multiple top executives going to prison on lengthy sentences to join their Wall Street cronies who likewise lied and profited while the world crashed.

Its all about the basic economics folks, PEVs will rapidly increase marketshare despite the powerful political and corporate forces arrayed against them just due to the fact that they will soon be cheaper to buy and already are cheaper to operate.

This despite the Big Oil/Fool Cell shills who post here.

Brandon
Guest

A lot of comments here doubting Moody’s analysis. Are we remembering that this is a worldwide prediction and not a U.S. prediction??? The U.S. will likely be closer to 15% by 2025, while the worldwide estimate is closer to 10%. Remember, there are quite a few regions in the world that will not be adopting EVs nearly as fast as the U.S., Europe, and China Japan etc.

One of the best estimates of EV adoption in the U.S. I’ve seen is Loren McDonald’s estimate here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpNTGKI9DTfacEFUbv018O5b_2a8hELH6PTSTYjcE40/htmlview

By the end of 2024 he’s predicting 15% EV market share here in the U.S..

His very nice website is:
http://evadoption.com/

ItsNotAboutTheMoney
Guest
ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Others won’t adopt as fast, but they have far fewer vehicles.

China and North America is over half the global market. Add in Western Europe and Japan/Korea and it’s 3/4.

Production will still be constrained, but the ramping mandates means that production will be forced to increase significantly from where it is now, and it will be at a high enough level that manufacturers won’t be able to be half-hearted about it.

menorman
Guest
menorman

But in reality, we’re beginning to see that we’re already teetering on the edge even though costs haven’t dropped below $100/kWh yet. Quite a number of what are realistically compliance cars have months-long waiting lists because people realize how much money they can save with an EV, even when it’s “compromised”.

stan1
Guest
stan1

In about 4 years these type of straight line growth pieces won’t be publishable. It’ll be so obviously exponential that the media won’t be willing to take the hit. They already should be concerned about what these things do to their reputation. Even in one year the trajectories are obviously way off.

Pushmi-Pullyu
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Pushmi-Pullyu

I certainly hope it won’t take 4 years for the exponential trend to become obvious, but that doesn’t mean you’re wrong. The end of these kindergarten-level “analyses” which assume straight-line growth can’t come soon enough for me!

It’s truly depressing to think people at Moody’s and Navigant and other so-called “analyst” firms are actually getting paid for writing this rubbish.

Timothy Hughbanks
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Timothy Hughbanks

Moody’s estimate seems quite low – much like Blackberry whistling past the graveyard as the first iPhones came out. The iPhones were expensive and just a gimmick, undoubtedly the future but that future was way off in the distance.

Once EVs start to sell several million a year worldwide, or one million a year in the U.S., there will be an avalanche. Any carmaker that doesn’t have a couple of BEV models available will be scrambling to catch up. EVs are still a developing technology gaining on ICEs in every innovation cycle. If they are already looking competitive, in eight years people will be saying, “do I really want to buy a car that will look obsolete a few years from now?”

South Waves
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South Waves

China, US, Europe, Japan, India and Canada account for 76% of Global car sales in 2016. If by 2025 BEVs have a 20% market share in those markets it would be at least 14% of worldwide market, regardless of what happens in other countries.
But numbers will be higher since:

1.- China represents 30% of new new cars market
2.- Diesel sales in Europe are being replaced by BEVs
3.- Regarding the American market, in 2/3 years there will be BEVs from Porsche, Jaguar, BMW, Mercedes, Aston Martin, McLaren, Koenisseg, Ferrari and Probaly Lamborghini. At this point BEVs will be perceived as the “Coolest thing” and ICE market share will start to Vanish

Pushmi-Pullyu
Guest
Pushmi-Pullyu

“That $100 price was always quoted as the tipping point – where EVs become cost competitive.”

No, actually $200 was quoted as the tipping point a very few years ago. Obviously that proved to be overly optimistic, since EV battery prices are well below $200 on the cell level, and for some companies (Tesla, GM, possibly BYD) it’s likely below $200 on the pack level.

We see a lot of auto makers point to 2020 as the year they’re going to start getting serious about making and selling plug-in EVs, at least in part due to increasingly strict emission controls. I think that’s going to be the real tipping point; economy of scale will bring down the overall price of PEVs more than further drops in battery prices.