Lux Research: China’s Lithium-Ion Battery Market To Quadruple By 2025

JUL 10 2015 BY MARK KANE 6

BYD Energy Storage Station

BYD Energy Storage Station

Lux Research in its report on battery market outlook sees a bright future for lithium-ion batteries in China.

Forecasted growth by 2025 will quadruple revenues from $1.7 billion  to $8.7 billion, while the energy in GWh will grow six times from about 5 GWh to some 31.3 GWh.

If we calculate those numbers, the average price would then fall from $340 to to $278/kWh.

Lux Research expects that 85% ($7.4 billion) of sales will be for transportation so the energy storage will account only for 15%.

“Transport applications will dominate with $7.4 billion, or 85% share of the revenues. Stationary applications will earn $1.3 billion. Overall, revenues will grow slower than volumes on account of continually falling battery and systems prices.”

Lilia Xie, Lux Research Associate and lead author of the report titled, “Clearing the Haze: Demystifying Energy Storage Opportunities in China.” said:

“Besides understanding the market dynamics and producing cost-competitive products, most players in these markets will require strong partnerships to succeed.”

“Early leaders such as BYD will try their best to hold onto their positions but the diversification of the market will gradually create promising opportunities for those who operate with patience and savvy.”

Some findings were released in highlights of the report:

  • While transportation leads, stationary is a growth driver. Total demand for energy storage will grow to 31 GWh per year in 2025, with transportation again the dominant player. Transportation’s share of the market will grow to 29 GWh; the stationary market, at 2.3 GWh, is smaller but grows at a faster 30% CAGR.
  • Growth of NEVs cools. After a spike in sales of new energy vehicles (NEV) in 2014, China will settle to a more leisurely pace of growth, mainly on account of inadequate charging infrastructure. Still, the market will grow at a 19% CAGR, reaching 500,000 units in 2025, across passenger and heavy vehicles.
  • Renewables will drive stationary storage. Growth in China’s stationary storage will follow from an aggressive deployment of renewables. China leads the world in installed capacity of renewables, with plans for much more. In addition, preliminary policy developments suggest the electricity sector will implement pricing reforms, encouraging efficiency-boosting technologies including grid storage.

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6 Comments on "Lux Research: China’s Lithium-Ion Battery Market To Quadruple By 2025"

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To think these “research” organizations get paid to put out this crap! This that Lithium-ion battery production is going to double less than three times in 10 years. They must know somehow that some other battery chemistry is going to displace Li-ion in the next ten years. Are we to expect the rest of the world to sit idly by while Elon Musk through Tesla corners the EV market and raises production to 500,000 per year.

For this forecast to turn out to be true there will have to little or no response to Tesla from the Japanese, the Germans and the rest of Europe, the South Koreans and the big three US car companies. Fat chance that that is going to happen!

I agree with the comment above. All these reports are made by people that sit in their office and make few phone call around. The real price of the lithium ion battery is right now well below 340 USd for 1 KW/h.In China the bulk price for large quantity orders in under 200 USD。Said by someone that visit chinese battery factory everyday.

I honestly don’t understand how Lux Research stays in business. As far as I’m concerned, they’re so inept they’re a laughing-stock. I’d love to see an article which looks back at their “forecasts” to see just how wildly off they have been, and how wildly their forecasts change from one year to the next.

Such bull.
Tesla sells their Poweerwall at $166/kwhr for the 3 kwhr between the 7 and 10kwhr packs.
Neither the Bolt or the Model 3 can be built for that price if batteries are over $175/kwhr.
Not sure what the deal about Lux or Pike that does the same thing, quote prices higher than I buy them retail.
And both have been doing these biased reports for 20 yrs I’ve watched them and their predictions or even present data is just badly wrong.
The Press needs to stop quoting them as they lie.

The range anxiety referred to is the biggest mistake pundits, analysts and investors make. TESLA already can go 200+ miles on a single charge. Within just a few years, many, many lower priced fully EVs will have 200 + some probably 300 + miles. 85% of driving is near home. Who cares about the charging stations? Just charge it each night at home! Problem solved. For long trips one may be forced to rely on yesterday’s gasoline cars and trucks…

That’s what I’ve been doing for 3 years..2012 Leaf for short commutes..2005 Matrix for long commutes.