Lux Research: Battery Market for Plug-in Vehicles to Rise to $10 Billion in 2020

JUN 29 2016 BY MARK KANE 12

Tesla Model X Concept on the Panasonic stand

Tesla Model X Concept on the Panasonic stand

Lux Research released a new lithium-ion battery market forecast, predicting that in 2020 sales will reach $10 billion.

Of note, about 90% of the plug-in car sales are forecast to come from six automotive manufactures: Tesla (between 30 to 40% of the market), BYD, Volkswagen, GM, Renault-Nissan and BMW.

Looking at the chart, and also watching the segment first hand (as well as being privy to some future plans at a couple of those companies), we can tell you with a very high degree of confidence, that the ‘percentage’ slices given to BYD, Nissan (and maybe VW is you trust in their own estimates) in 2020 are way too small.

Most of needed batteries in the future are said to be supplied by Panasonic (46%) – we believe in this case that the Panasonic numbers include Tesla Gigafactory production. The next largest suppliers after Panasonic/Telsa?   BYD, LG Chem, Nissan/NEC and Samsung SDI.

80% of lithium-ion batteries to be used in all-electric cars, while 20% make up the remainder in PHEVs.

“Six large carmakers led by Tesla will account for 90% of the demand, while Panasonic will remain the world’s biggest battery maker, Lux Research says

BOSTON, MA – June 28, 2016 – Led by Tesla, China’s BYD, and Volkswagen, the battery market for plug-in vehicles will rise to $10 billion in 2020, with electric vehicles (EV) emerging as the drivetrain of choice, according to Lux Research.

Just six large carmakers will account for 90% of the battery demand: Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen, General Motors (GM), Renault-Nissan and BMW. Among battery-makers, Panasonic will keep its lead with 46% market share, followed by BYD, LG Chem, NEC, Samsung SDI and others.

“Plug-in adoption is ultimately being fueled by rapidly decreasing battery costs and the success of early EVs such as Tesla’s Model S and Nissan’s Leaf, which has forced a number of other OEMs to make more serious commitments to developing plug-in vehicles,” said Chris Robinson, Lux Research Associate and lead author of the report titled, “Segmenting the $10 Billion Battery Market for Plug-in Vehicles: Market Share Projections for OEMs, Individual Models, and Suppliers.”

“Consumers will soon be able to purchase electric vehicles with 200 miles of range for less than $40,000, almost half the price of the long range EVs available today,” he added.

Lux Research forecasted the market for about 90 plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and identified implications for the energy storage industry. Among their findings:

  • EVs will take a giant share of battery demand. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will do well in unit sales, accounting for 740,000 of 1.5 million plug-in vehicles. Still, EVs will account for over 80% of the energy storage demand, due to their larger battery packs.
  • Tesla’s dominance will grow. Tesla, driven by its forthcoming Model 3, will continue to power the lion’s share of battery demand from EVs through 2020. Although the company is unlikely to meet its own aggressive sales targets, Tesla will still account for nearly half of the EV market’s battery consumption – followed by Nissan and GM.
  • BYD will lose PHEV lead in 2019. BYD will dominate battery demand from PHEVs on the strength of robust sales driven by generous subsidies. But the Chinese company will cede its lead in 2019 when European and American carmakers gain ground. Volkswagen will show the most growth as it focuses on plug-ins following its emissions scandal, while Toyota will continue to lag in PHEV sales as it focuses more on hybrids and fuel cells.”

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12 Comments on "Lux Research: Battery Market for Plug-in Vehicles to Rise to $10 Billion in 2020"

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I’m thinking that autonomous tech “plays best” with EV’s (vs. other drivetrains … PHEV, ICE, etc…)

… so next to (or perhaps more important than) battery price, the uptake in autonomy may be the biggest wild card in trying to predict how fast plug ins will gain market share.

/I’d be curious to know what the current market for plug in vehicles ($billions) is today?

That is undoubtedly true if only for the reason that it is really easy for an EV to ‘refuel’ by parking over a wireless charger.

It is not so easy or safe for a gasoline/diesel autonomous car to refuel itself.

That would be one reason, …but my main thoughts are on feedback loops in the autonomous system — the autonomous vehicle has got to be much more simple to control (and affordable) when you’re not dealing with an ICE and transmission.

i.e. acceleration, deceleration, warmup, temperature changes, , etc…..the ICE + transmission will react a little differently to all these changing circumstances (and require a complicated feedback loop to make adjustments) whereas the EV drivetrain would be nearly perfect and predictable.

/this is my guess, .. would be interesting to talk to some of the engineers who work in this field and get an educated opinion.

That’s a good point. Heck, even as a human I have to deal with those things. When I get into an ICE I feel out of synchronization due to the latency of the car responding to me pushing the accelerator and that weird lurching from that “transmission” thing. 😉

Golf clap to Lux, for trying so hard to stay relevant by stating the obvious. Safer than the rubbish reports from Cosmin.

I could make up something like that myself…

And it would be as accurate, too.

Well, making forecasts is certainly difficult. But you need them for planning and so someone needs to take a stab at it. So pity them for having a very hard job wherein you regularly suffer humiliation because you’ll rarely be right.

The EIA has been a TERRIBLE source of energy forecasting for decades now.

Does anyone remember what the last similar wild guess forecast from Lux said? Does anyone care?

In another 6 months, will anyone remember or care what this one said?

These stock promotions from Lux, aka “market forecasts,” are worth exactly as much as the virtual paper they’re printed on.

Lux Sux.

It’s interesting that they predict BYD to have less market share of batteries when they are growing at a pace that is both faster than the Chinese EV market growth and A LOT faster than the global EV market growth.

Their battery factory capacity is also growing fast and the plans are there to expand massively.

It is hard to predict the future, but some things are easier than other to predict. Especially when they are already happening.

Low 2020 estimate for Nissan-Renault doesn’t make sense at all unless they botch launches of Zoe 2 and Leaf 2 completely.

This is a reasonable business as usual case, probably based on the EU emissions standard being met and China continuing to move the way it is going in terms of legislation etc.

This is a pretty good starting point but I don’t like the space we are in at the moment where everything is driven by legislation of governments. This was a good place to start but what I would like to see is something more industry lead. Something like the Chinese auto-makers entering western markets with PHEV’s that compete on a price bases with European, Japanese or US diesels / hybrids.

Or maybe Nissan / Renault crushing some of the non-believers in the EU by grabbing more of the plug-in market than they need to meet the emissions standard.

Basically I think what I’d like to see is someone other than Tesla seeing EV’s as an opportunity rather than something they have to do to stay in business, being greedy and being green are not mutually exclusive.