Lutz Suggests Car Collectors Buy Model S Before Tesla Goes Belly Up

JAN 22 2018 BY DOMENICK YONEY 141

“The vehicles themselves are pretty brilliant.”

Bob Lutz suggests you go pick up yourself a Tesla Model S. Not just because he thinks it’s “…one of the fastest, best handling, best braking sedans that you could buy in the world today,” or because he says it has “…acceleration times will beat any $350,000 European exotic.” Nope.

Tesla Destination Chargers

Tesla Model S

The former BMW, Ford, Chrysler, and, finally, GM executive — godfather to both the Dodge Viper and the Chevy Volt — thinks you should acquire an example of the California-built premium electric sedan because it should make a good collector’s car. Why would it make a good collector’s car? Well “Maximum Bob” believes Elon who is a great guy but doesn’t know how to run a company. Says he,

 “When you’re perennially running out of money, you’re just not running a good automobile company, and he is running…he is doing a terrible job of running an automobile company, and I don’t see anything on the horizon that’s going to fix that…”

If you’re familiar with Mr. Lutz’s previous statements about Tesla and Musk, this episode will come as no surprise. He has, in the past, said things like “It’s not a car company, it’s a cult of fanatics who think Elon Musk can do no wrong. But financially, it doesn’t work.”

Of course, Lutz is not the only person on the planet that thinks Tesla is an overvalued, under-performing company that will end in tears and bankruptcy, but given his history in the auto industry, he voice does carry some amount of weight. We can only hope the former Marine, now 85 years of age, lives more than long enough to see his predictions of Tesla’s doom be proven wrong.

To hear Mr. Lutz make his pronouncements about the Model S and the company that builds them, forward to the 1:06:19 mark in the video above.

Source: LA Times

Categories: Tesla

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141 Comments on "Lutz Suggests Car Collectors Buy Model S Before Tesla Goes Belly Up"

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jim stack

Hmmmm would I believe a guy who smoke cigars and says climate change is not real while he pushed the Hummer H1 .
Would i believe a guy own an Albatros foreign fighter jet. Was at BMW FORD and GM when it declared bankruptcy. ???
No thanks

Bill

I am not sure what owning an L-39 has anything to do with his opinion on Tesla? Look at all the global warming advocates that fly around in mostly empty Citations and Gulfstreams preaching about pollution and CO2 reduction.

Elooney Muskey

Yeah, you just reminded me of the CEO of certain electric car company 🙂

Paul Smith

I suppose you claim complete freedom from any hypocracy.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Dude, in your entire live you couldn’t reduce mankind’s total air pollution and carbon emissions as much as Elon Musk’s contributions do every single day, even including his use of a private plane.

But do continue to make a fool of yourself in exposing your extreme jealousy of Elon. And we will continue to point and laugh at another member of the Tesla Hater cult.

😆 😆 😆

Kamran

You might consider that in the next 12-18 months a significant amount of over engineered competition will be available for consumers. Tesla did a good thing by being the first to producing a viable electric car but legitimate vehicle builders are about to hit the street with their products. You accuse anyone with a opinion counter to yours as being a TSLA shorter. I don’t have any position in TSLA but I am experienced in supply side logistics in the auto industry and can say that the company is nearing apogee and the future is …. when you know what it is..Blackberry.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Kamran said:

“You accuse anyone with a opinion counter to yours as being a TSLA shorter.”

Factually incorrect, as you can see just by reading the comments in this very thread. But it’s a common if clownishly ridiculous exaggeration coming from Tesla Hater cultists.

“I don’t have any position in TSLA but I am experienced in supply side logistics in the auto industry…”

I was giving you the benefit of the doubt in assuming you were too smart to actually believe the bull pucky you are posting here, but I’m willing to be convinced you’re just a “useful idiot” parroting the FUD endlessly churned out by Tesla stock shorters at Seeking Alpha, the Yahoo Finance forum, and other stock investor sites.

Does that make you feel better?

Robert Weekley

Funny thing is, I just read an interesting piece on Tesla today, anti – Tesla Can’t Do It – showing why and how they can, without great battery breakthrough scenarios!

And, funny enough, it was on Seeking Alpha! It was linked by Google when I checked th Rising TSLA stock price!

For a non-insider, but just someone doing their own math, it basically said that Yes, without any Battery Breakthroughs, Tesla could make a 500 Mile Range Semi, and a 620 Mile Range Roadster, and any such Battery Breakthroughs would just be like Gravy on their win!

Plus, in North America, and China, the Supercharger Network is unsurpassed, and in Europe, also! Any exta competing chargers just give more access points for Tesla Owners, not less!

Pushmi-Pullyu

There are Tesla stock pumper “cheerleader” blog posts on Seeking Alpha, too. When I was reading the site daily, I think it was about a 5:1 ratio of basher to pumper blog posts. Generally the pumper blog posts are as one-sided as the Tesla basher blog posts, but at least they stick far closer to real figures and facts, because real figures and facts mostly favor an optimistic outlook for Tesla Inc.

It’s a measure of just how thoroughly and uniformly dishonest Tesla bashers are, that they almost invariably resort to outright lies… even in cases where I think the truth would serve them better! As they say, the difference between a normal liar and a compulsive liar is that the latter continues to lie even when he knows no one will believe him. It’s very strange, but it appears that when someone becomes a serial Tesla basher he turns into a compulsive liar!

It would be interesting to see a psychological analysis done on serial Tesla bashers. Certainly seems to be some abnormal psychology going on there.

cros13

Here’s the big problem with that hypothesis.
With the sole exceptions of BYD and Nissan, nobody has sufficient battery supply to hit production numbers greater than ~30-40% of Tesla’s 2017 production for 2018 or 2019.

Jaguar will be next to market with the i-Pace they have had two RFPs for batteries out in the last two years. The RFP for 21700 cells to be delivered from 2023 exceeded total cylindrical cell production (for all purposes) by the five largest battery manufacturers on the planet (excl. Panasonic).
The earlier order won by LG Chem for the iPace indicates annual global production not exceeding ~12,000 units a year.
Tesla sold almost 50,000 Model X alone last year.

This isn’t like a typical car maker – supplier relationship. If you want to mass produce EVs you need to plan battery production years in advance and some level of cost-sharing to build out that production capacity will be required. Companies like VW have been slow learners in this regard, constantly putting out RFPs the market was unable to meet at all or at a price they could stomach without making the vehicle too expensive.

Marcel Guldemond

exactly. There are a lot of other competing EVs coming out in the next few years, but you’re right, they will all be production constrained due to battery supply. (Except maybe the Leaf)

Battery production will probably catch up, like the production of silicon constrained solar panel prices and production initially but then it caught up to the market. But in the meantime, Tesla will sell boatloads of Model 3s before anyone else catches up.

Mint

You’re in supply side logistics, and you don’t see Tesla’s huge advantages?

No battery supplier outside China is building factories or chargers on the scale of Tesla, because automakers aren’t committing for the long term. Nobody wants to be holding the short end of the stick. In contrast, Tesla’s raison d’etre is to go all in on EVs.

The Bolt is selling out with shortages everywhere, but what about when the 3 is readily available, or the Y comes out? GM is worried and playing it safe. Jaguar is estimated to sell only 13k in 2019. Others are talking solid state batteries and fuel cells. Nobody is giving large, long term contracts to LG, so they’re not building 50GWh/yr factories.

As for China, that market is very cost sensitive and 95%+ shirt range EVs. That’s why BYD makes low density lithium iron phosphate cells, which are not a threat to Tesla.

The supply analysis favors Tesla. And with the unchallenged Supercharger network, demand will stay that way too.

Jim Whitehead
I actually enjoyed watching Bob Lutz do his best Mister Magoo impression. I didn’t find fault in most of what he said about the traditional car business. He knows that stuff. But his is biased and myopic about Tesla. He sees Tesla “burn money” and has no understand of the reason. He doesn’t grasp that they would be actually profitable if they went steady state, stopped cranking out a model every 2 years and became just another boring car company. My relatives with lots of Tesla stock, are still smiling from ear to ear. They know Lutz preaches Tesla doom every year, and so far has been wrong every year. Lutz seems to have a Magoo-like inability to see the wave of tech change right in front of his eyes. Lutz may not understand that Tesla runs a net negative because they are investing every dime of cash flow plus extras to grow a major car company “as fast as possible.” Its hyper accelerated growth that has huge results. Look at the Giant Asset of the Gigafactory alone. I bet another car company today would buy it for double, if they could get it today and save 3 years of… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu

Now there is a comment which should be preserved for posterity!

Well said, sir.

Robert Weekley

Another thing about Bob Lutz, as far as I have so far heard, it does not seem that he has built any Global Company on his own Leadership, and Via Motors, that he joined, still seems like still operating in stealth mode, in that they still have not grown past their mostly private sales!

Having only worked most his life for established companies, does not give him a growth perspective!

wavelet

Let me correct that for you… VIA Motors hasn’t sold any vehicles at all. Although they have fully working prototypes, EPA certifications, and an agreement with GM both to get the gliders as well as that Chevy dealers will service the trucks (pretty significant), and have had all that for several years.

What apparently the great Bob Lutz can’t do is line up investors to fund building the vehicles. Given they don’t have to build the bodies/chassis, like Workhorse, Bollinger etc., just assemble drivetrain, it speaks poorly of his management ability.

Vexar

Wow. There go like his only brownie points with me. Thanks for the update there. Meanwhile, as you say, Bollinger and Workhorse are doing it. They have enough runway to beat Tesla to the market and get some of that market share to themselves, and well deserved!

Listening to Bob Lutz is like listening to Walter Mondale. Although technically still alive and once very important, clearly no longer relevant.

Kdawg

They got a deal for gliders? Last I knew, they removed the existing drive-train and replaced it with their own.

wavelet

Well, I expect they had to buy standard trucks ’til now to do their R&D and make prototypes — I’m GM wouldn’t cut them a deal on the small numbers needed for that.
However, I’d read, around the time they announced Chevy had agreed its deals would service the trucks, that they had also an agreement with GM to provide gliders once they were ready for full-blown production.
If they had to pay for a full new truck with ICE drivetrain for every unit, it’s hard to believe their vehicles would have any RoI.
That might be wrong — not that it matters, because they’re no

mx

The Dumbest CEO’s are always conservative.
It’s a sad new trend.

Euro point of view

M.Lutz is perfectly right .
Elon Musk is not a bizman , but a showman

eltosho

Yes, because creating three multi-billion dollar companies out of nothing is just “show”.

P.S. Tesla shorters lost another billion last month. I guess a big chunk of this money was Bob’s 😀

L'amata

GOOD!!Bob is a senile old Goof That should have retired Long ago..

MikeG

I prefer the word dotard to describe Mr. Nutz. It’s such an undervalued word.

Delta

But he can still do one armed pushups…

Dan

Tesla may well run out of money and have to enter some form of bankrupcy. If that happens the stockholders get wiped out but someone with deep pockets (and there are many VERY deep pockets in the S.F. bay area) will pick up the pieces, make a deal with the debt holders, and re-capitalize the company.

Alternately someone (deep pocket) could come in pre bankruptcy and put in a lot of new capital for a majority stake. In this approach the existing shareholders retain a (much reduced) ownership interest.

The failure, if it happens, will be financial but the technology is too valuable for the company to go away.

Brian

Google or Apple would make sizable offers for Tesla long before bankruptcy.

Nix

Dan — I don’t think you understand what it would actually take for Tesla to “run out of money”, because it never means what you guys think it means.

Because “running out of money” would require:

1) That Tesla no longer be able to issue any more new stock shares AT ANY PRICE.

2) That Tesla no longer be able to sell any bonds AT ANY PRICE.

3) That no banks would lend any money.

4) That no private investors would lend any money.

5) That all of their assets would already be mortgaged and not be able to be sold and leased back to them.

6) That simply taking a pause in new product development and rollout wouldn’t allow them to accumulate funds from current product sales (it absolutely would at current margins).

Sadly, you guys can’t even correctly game out your own doom’s day claims. It is almost like you don’t know how companies raise funding for expansion at all. Any talk of bankruptcy just exposes how intellectually bankrupt the person bring it up really is.

Oglark

I am not biased on Tesla but the company can indeed run out of money. I am not saying it will. I think that as long as it hits the latest model 3 production forecasts that it will survive just fine.

But, the reality is Tesla bonds are at junk bond levels. With the debt levels on the balance sheet right now they do not have access to loans. A stock issuance would kill Tesla’s equity and potentially trigger debt covenants.

Tesla is walking a tightrope right now. I do not think they will fall off but it is definitely a possibility.

This is why the Semi and Roadster 2 deposits were vital in the short term to keep Tesla viable.

Another Euro point of view
Exactly, Tesla is not doomed at all but indeed walking on a tight rope. This is exactly why articles mentioning the possibility of a bankruptcy attracts so many comments and people like Pu&pu jumps at the throat of everyone being slightly skeptical like a Japanese kamikaze. The thing is Tesla is doing relatively OK as long as access to capital markets stay opens for them, and that is largely dependent on believing the narrative since financial success is by definition in a far future. Why so, because it is difficult to successfully raise capital or issue bonds with a deeply depressed stock price. So the success depends on people believing in the narrative. The pivotal point of the narrative being that 1/ Tesla is growing fast (true) 2/ Tesla is only making losses because it growth fast (wrong, but only people with deep accounting knowledge are aware of it so it doesn’t matter, so let’s say its true). I am sure that Tesla will always successfully find ways to be re-capitalized. Tesla could however have a difficult moment but not know or in 2019. More likely in 2020-2021 with like ultra fast charging network deployed and very competent & cheap… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu

“…people like Pu&pu jumps at the throat of everyone being slightly skeptical like a Japanese kamikaze.”

It gets rather tiresome seeing you serial Tesla bashers throwing that accusation at me. I express a lot of skepticism about Tesla, and I have frequently noted that its long-term survival is still in question, altho its short-term survival seems pretty solid, and Nix has thoroughly explained why nobody who understands finances should believe the bull pucky that “Tesla is walking a tightrope”.

If you don’t want to be seen as a serial and compulsive liar, “Another Euro…”, then how about giving me credit for not being an out-and-out Tesla cheerleader? I criticize Tesla (and Elon Musk) often enough that if you’re honest, you should give me some credit for that.

But back to the subject: After reading “Tesla is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy” for years and years, it’s no longer very convincing. The only thing that changes is the excuses that serial Tesla bashers like you offer as your latest fake reason why you (pretend to) think Tesla is about to go bankrupt.

Another Euro point of view

“I express a lot of skepticism about Tesla, and I have frequently noted that its long-term survival is still in question”

That is true and you are usually very reasonable in your assessments regarding Tesla.

I don’t think I wrote that Tesla would become bankrupt, did I ? The company is way too popular not to find funding one way or the other. I am a bit skeptical about Elon Musk still being the best person to run the company alone at this stage of development however. I am also skeptical of Tesla ability of making profits using current business model but would be glad to be proved wrong as this would speed up transport electrification process.

mx

The Tesla SEMI is exactly why they will NOT run out of money.
Most investors see another huge market created by Tesla.
They will fund that market.
End of Story.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Oglark said:

“But, the reality is Tesla bonds are at junk bond levels.”

That sounds bad to the average non-investor, but altho I’m not a “financial guy” I’ve been exposed enough to investor discussions to know that all that means is it’s rated at “BB” or lower. So long as investors eagerly jump at the chance to buy Tesla’s bonds, then from Tesla’s viewpoint, who cares if they’re not triple-A rated?

“With the debt levels on the balance sheet right now they do not have access to loans.”

Factually incorrect. In fact, Tesla recently increased its line of credit.

“A stock issuance would kill Tesla’s equity and potentially trigger debt covenants.”

Seemingly defying the law of gravity 🙂 , every time Tesla issues more stock the stock price actually goes up. Strange but true.

So your assertion there is also factually incorrect.

“I am not biased on Tesla…”

Well, I think we just pretty thoroughly demonstrated that you are.

Another Euro point of view

Mostly agree but you item 6 is wrong, it’s already too late for this. Tesla has a number employee, sale and maintenance network that is designed to only be supported/cost competitive with a much larger number of cars sold than they do now. This is for example why BYD makes profits and Tesla makes losses while both are fast growing companies. First one, BYD, sales 100K cars (and XXK trucks ?) in one single country. No car companies can be profitable selling only 100K cars with a distribution network as vast and extended international as Tesla. So no choice here, too late to slow down, the whole project will only cover its own costs provided much more cars are sold per year (for example just compare the number of employees/cars made, Tesla: 33K employees/105K cars made per year, Porsche: 27K employees/230K cars made per year).

Pushmi-Pullyu

If BYD is consistently profitable, then it’s almost certain that sizable Chinese government subsidies have a lot to do with that.

Many governments around the world heavily subsidize their larger businesses, and China perhaps does that more than most. Contrariwise, aside from the occasional bailout to save a large company (such as GM) from bankruptcy, the U.S. doesn’t do that.

Of course, those who follow Tesla know that the company did receive a substantial “green tech” government loan, which Tesla needed to tool up to produce the Model S. But that really was a loan, not a subsidy, and it has been fully repaid with interest.

Viking79

Mr Lutz is a dinosaur.

Kdawg

I kid.. I kid….

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SparkEV

If he thinks ppl should go out and buy Tesla S for collector’s value, I wonder how many he has in his collection. Talk is cheap, show me the cars!

Unless, of course, he doesn’t actually believe that Tesla will go under.

L'amata

Bob Is soooo FOS !..Tesla is making more money than Bob could ever imagine AND>>>>Building a Company with the Profits ! Instead of Robbing the Bank like Bob & His Colleugues
did when they ran their auto companies into the ground .

Roy LeMeur

+1

Chacama

+9^e^9 (Your forgot to drop the mic)

Steve

Tesla is still heavily in debt, they aren’t “making money” yet.

Everyone seems to be avoiding the actual comment and th facts that Lutz used to back it up.

Elon has had some really great ideas that he has built up. But that’s the problem with his technique. He can build them up, but he doesn’t know how to really sustain them. So he sells them at the point when he realizes that he can’t get the company any further. Or he gets bored and wants to move on.

Musk needs two key people to run the business, a supply chain officer and a business officer. Musk can guide the products and development that he really likes to do and leave the real business and planning to people that know what they’re doing.

AlanSqB

It’s very true that companies need different types of CEO’s at different phases of their life cycle. Mr. Musk is a “starter” and will not make a good long term CEO for Tesla. However, Tesla is still “starting” so for now he’s absolutely the right guy.

Later on when they have changed the world, some “sustainer” like Tim Cook can come in and tweak/keep things running. Honestly it would be good if he could find someone like that now and start getting them to take over day-to-day like Steve did with Tim.

Either way, Lutz is still a gas bag and was not a good CEO.

Dav8or

*”Either way, Lutz is still a gas bag and was not a good CEO.”*

Really? Prove it. The only company he was ever CEO of was Exide batteries for a few years. I can find little that says he was either good, nor bad CEO during the three years he was there.

I wonder what the Elon cheerleaders will say if Tesla really does go bankrupt? Exxon Mobile conspired with General Motors to kill the future? The Russian trolls sabotaged Tesla? He was too soon and the world just couldn’t handle Elon yet?

Tesla is a house of cards. Maybe Elon will pull it off and maybe he won’t. Mr. Lutz could be equally right in his assessment as he could be wrong at this point. I see nothing solid about Tesla right now except that a huge amount of people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and are willing to wait and see how this all play out.

Lamata

Yea, He ran Exide right Into the ground!

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Everyone seems to be avoiding the actual comment and th facts that Lutz used to back it up.”

The comment that Bob, predicting the collapse of Tesla Inc., is the very same one that Tesla Hater cultists have been making ever since they started short-selling Tesla stock.

And Bob’s opinions here are not “facts” any more than any of the rest of the endless stream of FUD coming from the Tesla Hater cult, of which I see you are a member.

I hear that Tesla short-sellers lost about $4 billion last year. Now that seems to me to be a good way to go bankrupt.

Tesla Hater cultists: Losers in every way!

Go Tesla!

Steve

You still have your head buried in the sand. The facts that Lutz commented on was the cash and debt side of things. You know, the stuff that makes or breaks companies…

Another Euro point of view

“the stuff that makes or breaks companies”, not anymore in the “new economy” maybe 😉

Pushmi-Pullyu

Steve, I’ve been reading the same bull pucky from you Tesla Hater cultists for years. Literally, exactly the same “Oh no, Tesla is about to go bankrupt!” B.S.

So go peddle your Big Lies elsewhere, and don’t bother trying to tell me you really believe that bull pucky. There’s no sale here.

Mint

He’s had a damn good idea what to do with ideas at X/PayPal and SpaceX. Those companies developed extraordinarily profitable technologies (fine, SpaceX hasn’t fully cashed in yet, but nobody is even remotely close to them in cost reduction).

Robert Weekley

As to SpaceX, even the Gov’ment is a winner, using their cheap launches for their Satellites!

Unfortunately, ULA was just in the Cost+ Business so long, they still have to rethink, how to reuse a rocket, even when SpaceX set the Reusable Goal publicly, many years ago!

mx

Actually, the other old auto makers are more in debt.
Tesla’s debt looks good in comparison.

gsleaf

Tesla WILL NOT go away if it goes bankrupt. It will be bought out by someone with a lot of money and EV focus (likely a Chinese company) and morph into something like what Volvo is now.

leafowner

Right – they are reaching that critical mass quickly….If they can break the 1 million vehicles/year barrier in the next 3-4 years, nothing will stop them.

Remember, BMW only sells about 2 million units/year…

zzzzzzzzzz

Tesla(R) will be certainly bought out, but it means buying valuable assets after Chapter 7, and not shares at current nonsense valuation. It just has way too many billions of liabilities to buy it as it is.

Current shareholders will be wiped – long live new shareholders!

Nix

Tesla has billions more in assets than it has in liabilities.

You remind me of renters who talk down home ownership by saying the bank really owns the house, while ignoring the equity the homeowner is building in their own home.

Yes, Tesla has debt, just like the vast majority of companies around the world. But their debt is funding their asset growth.

Elooney Muskey

How much will a warehouse in Reno be worth to Amazon when the economy tanks? Asset valuations can see huge drops if they are no longer as useful.

Another Euro point of view
Actually Tesla’s luck is that nowadays, a very large part of developed world population invest in stock exchange. This as opposed to 100 years when only the 0.1% super wealthy would. The 0.1% super wealthy of 100 years ago had likely the same profile as the best Seeking Alpha short sellers who writes articles, as a professional in finance structuring I cannot see any flaws in articles written by Mr. Bill Cunningham and even articles written by Montana Skeptic, another short seller, are about 95% factually correct (5% inaccuracy due to some exaggeration but no downright lies) . On the other hand, articles written by Tesla longs, are, for most of them, of amazingly poor quality. Yet shorts are wrong and longs are rights. Why is that ? Because no one cares about details of how something is achieved. The huge masses of people investing through investments funds (as opposed to the super wealthy of 100 years ago) can’t read/understand Seeking Alpha short articles, they just want their investments funds to buy shares of fast growing fashionable companies, they want the companies the press is speaking about all the time. In this sort of economy with huge masses of cash… Read more »
Pushmi-Pullyu

Wow, what a pack of lies!

I spent several months reading all the blog posts and comments related to Tesla on Seeking Alpha, to educate myself on that side of Tesla’s business — and also to learn to spot the many, many lies and fallacious arguments used by serial Tesla bashers.

I can state as fact that nearly all the Tesla “shorter” blog post contain multiple cases of half-truths and outright lies. It’s pretty telling that Tesla shorters almost always think they have to lie in order to make their case!

Contrariwise, the far fewer Tesla “long” blog posts on Seeking Alpha generally stick to the truth, altho some cherry-picking of facts and figures is commonplace in such “cheerleader” blog posts.

The simple truth is that Tesla cheerleaders don’t need to resort to half-truths or lies, because the truth serves them perfectly well!

BTW, “Another Euro…” You can stop pretending that you’re “really” a fan of Tesla. It’s just insulting our intelligence to think that anybody reading your comments could really be that stupid and gullible.

Another Euro point of view

But you often agree with what I am stating. I mean you often wrote that Tesla stock is over valued. There you have it, why is it over valued ? Because there are oceans of dumb money sloshing around.
Bit coin ? Not overvalued ? Same reason. Unlike Bob Lutz I do not think Tesla will go bankrupt but I believe we are going through a speculative bubble due to excess of dumb money. I mean people by a Tesla, they find it a good car and thus buy the stock. How silly that can be ? Dumb money at work. You can make a excellent product and still have a management that is hopeless at keeping a budget. Model 3 mass production might get Tesla in a better financial position but right now it is too early to be sure which way it will go. If reservation list is vastly made of base model reservations Tesla has a problem, if Model 3 is too good as compared to Model S, Tesla has another problem (high margin Model S sales reduced). So wait and see.

Another Euro point of view

“I spent several months reading all the blog posts and comments related to Tesla on Seeking Alpha, to educate myself on that side of Tesla’s business”

OK, in the last 6 months of Seeking Alpha short articles, could you please point me to at least one obvious lie that you saw ? I often don’t agree with their conclusions as those are merely opinions but except for some small occasional authors I did not see that many lies and when their are mistakes I saw fellow shorters pointing those to the author of the article. The thing is that the all short theory is based on precise accounting analysis to Tesla financial reports, they take a lot of pride in those tiresome in depth analysis, where it goes wrong is when they conclude that people do mind. They don’t, they just bought a Tesla then decided to buy the stock, the hell with the bean counters.

Pushmi-Pullyu

And to think, I used to have a lot of respect for Bob Lutz, for championing the Volt project at GM.

Now he’s just an embarrassment. He needs to be sent to a retirement home where he can sit in his rocker on the front porch and yell “Get off my lawn, you darn kids!”

Must be pretty frustrating for Bob, stuck at tiny Via Motors, a conversion EV maker which is going nowhere, while watching Tesla busily and rapidly growing, grabbing more and more market share every year. It couldn’t possibly be that Bob is jealous of the success of both Tesla Inc. and Elon Musk, could it? Hmmmm? 😉

If I had to bet on which auto maker is likely to go “belly up” in the next five years, either Via Motors or Tesla Inc… then I wouldn’t be betting on Tesla!

mtefre

Already yelling «Get off my lawn, Tesla!»

Robert Weekley

It’s OK Bob, it’s the New Tesla Hovercraft!
?

leafowner

I love Bob – so entertaining! Hope he sells his GM shares soon as SO many people are flocking to their impressive EV line-up.

What will you sell in China Bob — they are outlawing gad / diesel soon ya know…

jm

Poor Bob. I guess he’s finally having his Admiral Stockdale moment. I would hope that some close relative who cares will get him in soon to see a Doctor specializing in geriatric medicine. If he were living in Fl, we’d expect to see a “Silver Alert” issued at some point in the future if he happens to find where his caregiver has hidden the car keys. Sad but we’ll all be there someday. Meanwhile, keep him off the air.

L'amata

Good Idea!

God/Bacardi

If Lutz never mentioned Tesla/Musk, he’d never be in the headlines…

AlanSqB

^^^^ This x 1000. He knows that badmouthing TSLA will get him some airtime. Now he’ll get flown around and treated to Green Room gift baskets and get some attention on some news-show sets. Way to stay relevant there Bobbie.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Sadly, I believe you’re 100% correct there.

Some men retire gracefully and gradually fade from public view. Others, like Admiral Stockdale and Bob Lutz, ruin the reputation they built earlier in life by publicly spouting nonsense, and appearing to be senile even when they’re not.

pjwood1

Some people retire. Some choose self-immolation.

ffbj

I think Bob Lutz will go belly-up, before Tesla does.

L'amata

There’s an Idea! We can start placing bets on that & see what happens!………. lmao

Robert Weekley

Bob Lutz Hockey Pool? 2 teams competing for who exits first from the Automotive / Life playoffs! Bob vs Tesla on Funniest Home Vudeos?

Lamata

+11111

Ford Prefect

Did anyone else notice the 2019 Chevy Silverado is designed to work with a PHEV, EV, and Fuel Cell powertrain? I wonder if this was so that VIA can start selling less expensive truck conversions?

William

See my prescient comment earlier today in that blog. I had Bobs number before he pulled this latest “fast one”.

Kevin C

Throw Bob to the sharks.
Let there be blood.

Say Bob, what happened to Via motors?

L'amata

Bob is so Pitiful that I am starting to feel sorry for him ..Bob is turning out to be a very Pitiful Joke..Poor Guy.

wavelet

++

u_serious?

Not going belly up. If GM was saved by the Bk and the tax payers, why wouldn’t Tesla?
That’s “The GM Way” right Bob Klutz?

krona2k

Does he seriously not understand Tesla’s finances? It seems pretty simple to me.

Sure their future success depends on execution, just like every company, but there’s nothing fundamentally that points to disaster simply because every car they sell makes Tesla money, the more they sell the more money they make.

Bunny

Tesla is accumulating debt though.
If the economy tanks, that could really cause a lot of problems on their balance sheet. just sayin’

zzzzzzzzzz

Just raising interest rates will be enough at certain level. Not even need to wait for next economy downturn.

ffbj

That’s true. The historically low interest rates we now enjoy will not last forever, and are on the rise.

Another Euro point of view

I understood that part of the debt (bonds) are convertible so that it’s more complicated than just an interest rate rise issue. The way I understood it is that Tesla has the option to redeem those convertible bonds in shares providing the stock price is remaining above a certain level set at the bonds issue. If I understood it right it means that it is yet another reason why it is highly critical that the tsla stock price remains high. This would allegedly partly be the “raison d’être” of sites like Electrek, a channel through which “optimism” is dispensed.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Tesla is accumulating debt though.
If the economy tanks, that could really cause a lot of problems on their balance sheet. just sayin’”

Is Tesla borrowing at a variable rate? Well, I hope not! If they are, then yes that is a very serious vulnerability, considering that Tesla’s debt keeps growing year-on-year as they keep borrowing to grow rapidly.

I certainly hope Tesla’s execs are smart enough to borrow only at fixed rates.

But according to Nix, Tesla’s assets are growing faster than its debts, so I question this is really a problem. More likely just more FUD originating with you-know-who.

Nix

Well, it is actually according to NASDAQ, with whom TSLA is registered for trading. I’m just the middle man for the info.

Anybody can look it up NASDAQ’s website for TSLA. Assets have grown substantially faster than debts in the last few years.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…every car they sell makes Tesla money, the more they sell the more money they make.”

Yes, this simple fact seems beyond the comprehension of Tesla Hater cultists. Some of them actually seem to believe that all the award-winning cars Tesla sells are just part of some sort of gigantic stock swindle! Or at least they pretend to believe that, as part of their FUD.

Talk about clueless and brain-dead!

Go Tesla!

EVer

Bob is a national treasure; leave him alone and quit wishing him ill. He is doing what all of us hope to do; live long enough to become a PITA to everyone; and, especially those holding Tesla Stock(ha).

Forever Green

EVer, you said, “He is doing what all of us hope to do; live long enough to become a PITA to everyone.” That is so true. ?

floydboy

How’s VIA Motors doing lately? Seems Mr Lutz thinks yelling at the approaching storm will stop it.

fred

Via motors speaks for itself. I guess Lutz isn’t a great business man either?

scott franco

At the risk of being repetitive,

Bob Lutz

Is a putz.

William

Your picking all the low hanging fruit!

Paul Smith

I suggest you get a selfie with Lutz before he goes belly up.

vdiv

Well, if Mr. Lutz is right, then perhaps one should get a Model X instead as there are fewer of them and it is certainly rather unique. Better yet get one of each, an original Roadster, an S, an X, and a 3. Throw in solar tiles and PowerWalls while at it!

See?! Mr. Lutz proclamations are actually good for Tesla 🙂

WadeTyhon

Collect them all! You gotta have a complete set or they’re worthless!

William

You might be onto something.

Robert Weekley

But, what if I got an extra Car(d) of one player (extra Model S), can I trade it for a Model X! Swapsies!
?

Elooney Muskey

No! Not Model X, the lowest reliability car! Who’s gonna fix the haunted falcon doors if Tesla goes belly up?
Who’s gonna pay more for an undrivable collector’s car?

Pushmi-Pullyu

I didn’t know that the falcon wing doors were “haunted”. Is that an option you have to pay for, or is the ghost standard equipment?

(Or perhaps you meant “vaunted”? But that’s okay; nobody expects FUDster trolls to be able to spell.)

One thing that is not a collector’s item, is any vehicle from Via Motors. They are quite rare, unlike Tesla cars these days… but nobody wants them!

Go Tesla!

Elooney Muskey

Check this out at 1:10 mark. Can’t wait when insideevs will run a story with this video. Free word-of-mouth marketing!

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2018/01/17/owners-tesla-model-x-too-many-repairs/

Another Euro point of view

There was also that story in the Norwegian press of a Model X having one falcon door opening at speed on the highway. Probably nothing really worse than other car makers but Tesla being often over hyped in the press it also attracts some negative press that other more low profile car makers would likely escape from.

Terawatt

> Probably nothing really worse than other car makers

Maybe, but the owner wanted the DMV to consider banning Model X from Norwegian roads – after this had happened multiple times with the door opening on its own initiative in 80 kph. As he said “it creates a draft, it’s noisy, and not least one wonders if the kids fell out”… 😀

Bob’s a funny boy. I have no idea if he is right about Tesla. But it is clear they are liars who cannot be trusted for two seconds. Over and over again they are caught red-handed having painted a picture that was *way* rosier than reality and where we later realize Tesla MUST have known.

Pity really.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“There was also that story in the Norwegian press of a Model X having one falcon door opening at speed on the highway.”

Gosh, you read it on the Intertubes, so it must be true! Everybody knows that nobody out there is actively and purposefully spreading lies and FUD about Tesla every day, every place they can.

🙄

BTW — Twice in my life, I’ve had a real-life, non-imaginary car door come open right beside me when I was riding in the car, at highway speed. Once it happened when I was dozing and leaning on the arm rest on the door. If I didn’t always, always wear a seat belt, I might not be here to relate that fact.

Strangely enough, it didn’t require any fancy automatic, electric powered falcon wing door for the latch mechanism to not engage properly when the door was shut. Just a regular ol’ mechanical latch failed to engage properly.

Another Euro point of view

It was not just any internet site, it was like the “BBC” of Norway. Could still be FUD but it is not coming from a trash random internet site. Terrawat knows more about it.

CarGuy

Hmm, thinking Bob is the showman and Elon is the businesman.

https://www.viamotors.com/videos.html

Still haven’t see a Via Motors vehicle on the road. Guessing they are not making money.

Also, would bet I see a Tesla truck on the road before I see a Via Motors truck.

WadeTyhon

Ill continue to respect his contributions to the car industry and in particular the brilliant Chevy Volt.

But he is mostly irrelevant in the car industry at this point. He is now just a talking head celebrity in the car industry. Other cranky old men just wanna know his ‘Hot Takes’. He does a round interviews, says things that rile people up and disappears for a few weeks.

As far as myself, I just don’t care what his take is any more.

CarGuy

So what will happen if Mr. TRUMP puts a 25% tariff on made in Mexico? Via is 100 percent made in Mexico.

At least Tesla builds it’s cars in the USA.

Mister G

Can somebody tell Dinosaur Bob that Tesla is mapping roads and highways everday and that model 3 will be first autonomous vehicle to be used in cities. GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS AND DIESELS LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS

AlanSqB

No, shhhh. Don’t tell anyone. That data that Tesla vehicles are all constantly collecting across the world is enormously valuable and probably worth nearly as much as the value of the entire company alone. It’s their secret weapon and hidden savings account, all in one.

Mister G

And now that Trump raised tariffs on Chinese solar panels, Tesla solar panels will be more competitive unfortunately solar panels will probably cost a little more. Don’t tell Dinosaur Bob LOL

G2

Bob ‘who’?

William

What about Bob?

Pushmi-Pullyu

I see what you did there.

William

“Baby steps”, it’s the ICE OEM PHEV delay and hobble recipe for SuckCES!

The Dude

Hmmm, VIA Motors last blog post on their webpage was from May of 2017. Better buy one soon as a collector’s item!!

RANDY

I just came here for the comments. Damn…. the Silver alert and get off my lawn comments are priceless. Keep them coming.

William

It’s like the gift that keeps on giving!

Don Zenga

Dr Mr. Bob Lutz

If more people buy Tesla Model S/X based on your advise and if it increases the sales by 20 – 30 %, then I will be thankful to you.

Here is an important fact. The executives at
German trio (Benz, BMW, Audi)
Japanese trio (Lexus, Infiniti, Acura)
Italian trio (Ferrari, Maserati, Lamborghini)
who considered the vehicles from Cadillac & Lincoln as less worthy than their shoes.

Now all of them were forced to go back to drawing board because of Tesla.
Instead of praising this company, you are saying that it will go bankrupt.
Ideally you should surrender your US citizenship and settle in any of those 3 countries.

Robert Weekley

Bob is building the Border Wall for Trump, but surrounding Detroit, with Old GM Cars! You know…the ones with the Faulty Ignition Switches!

Nix

Bob — Retire to Florida already, and go do something useful like lay out in the sun.

Tahoe Bear

Earlier in the video, Bob says car companies should be run by people passionate about the products, by car guys and gals…
His analogy was that he would much rather eat at a restaurant run by someone who is passionate about the food, than someone looking to maximize return on investment.
That’s Elon. He is excited and passionate and deeply knowledgeable about his Tesla products & electric cars in general. No, Bob, he is not just a salesman. It’s like you’ve never met or known him.

Robert Weekley

I really think Elon should make an effort to invite Bob to the Model Y or Pickup Reveal, or the roll out party for the new Roadster!

Hauer

Bob who?

Tray Loader

Bob sh***ts on humanity.
He was a longtime chairman of EXIDE. Google them and what they did to LA and other parts of the world.
Why he did that will forever be his secret.
Guess the GM/Tesla merger approach he had in mind failed big time and now he´s on a lifelong vendetta.

What a hypocrite. He should be in jail.

William

Bottom line, top soil and lead don’t mix, especially in an urban population-dense setting, with children all around.

Another Euro point of view

OK people, I know it applies to me as well, but don’t you have a wife or a mother to dispense some swift kicks in the but as to make you attend to more important questions like your well being the ones of your loved ones ?
She would tell you (and she would be right of course, as always), that only time will tell if old Bod is right or wrong and wasting f…g precious on the net with other random internet wankers won’t get you anyway. 🙂 😉

Pushmi-Pullyu

Says the guy who posted no less than six comments to this thread.

“And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye? Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye? Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.” —  Matthew 7:1-5 KJV

Another Euro point of view

Yes I know, now that Matthew guy, could he not express that in a more straight to the point way ? With all due respect to ancient writings I find it amazingly hard to read. Tried the Qran as well out of curiosity, lot’s of head scratching as well. Would need to be modernized.

Bill Howland

Still not bad for an Ex-Tax Collector.

Heheh my favorite real estate agent never told me what his main job was – finally I got out of him that he worked for the IRS..

I said, ” You’re too nice a guy to work for them!”, hehe.

jm

Don’t forget to notice the version PuPu is using and quoting from: KJV. Translated over 400 years ago from Hebrew, Aramaic and Greek. If the King’s English is too daunting (or is that “haunting?”) try another version for your liking. If every sentence needs to start with “dude” then might I suggest “The Living Bible.”. It’s fine for most purposes, but I actual prefer KJV. It’s just so much more impressive to quote from.

We should strive to continue to expand our collective lexicon. I’ll endeavor to use “dotard” or my personal favorite, “defugalty” more in the future.

Pushmi-Pullyu

comment image

William

+1

Another Euro point of view

+1

Bill Howland

As has been proven for as long as I’ve been saying it, this is one place where Mr. Lutz may be wrong:

Tesla will keep prospering as long as the stock market keeps going up.

Haven’t had to modify that statement in the slightest.

And another thing: From an objective point of view MUSK is an excellent businessman: He’s made 15 times more money than almost anyone else in the business.

Perhaps at one time Mr. Lutz was more interested in ‘Getting the Job Done’. But with the disappointing performance of Via Motors – competitors are finally catching up to this company and will likely surpass it soon – Musk seems to like doing interviews as opposed to sticking to his knitting.

Mary Barra at least publicly claims that ‘drivered cars’ will be around for much longer than Musk claims.

I figure the death knell of them will be when Insurance companies en masse say its too expensive to drive yourself.

Bill Howland

err: “Lutz seems to…”

matt

I suspect it will be the states and feds, not the insurance companies, that mandate autopilot. Just look at the huge array of mandatory technologies that every new car has – once AP becomes common, it will become mandatory.

matt

Look back a decade and literally every retailer and finance guy in the retail sector said the same thing about Bezos and Amazon – “You can’t run a retailer unprofitably and make it up on volume.”

Except he did. He beat Walmart and everyone else.

What these guys understand is that if you want to own a market the worst possible thing to do at this stage is to become profitable. Once you are profitable you will never be allowed to go unprofitable. This may sound counterintuitive, but if you want to truly dominate you must outspend, and to continually outspend you can’t start cutting costs to maintain EBITDA.

He will generate more value by defining and owning markets now, and that is phenomenally expensive, then by playing it safe and consolidating gains while someone else runs away with lucrative sectors. It is much easier to win now than it will be in 3-4 years.

You add $100B in market cap, and the loans will seem trivial.