LG Chem Expects Chevrolet Bolt Sales To Exceed 30,000 In 2017

OCT 18 2016 BY ERIC LOVEDAY 133

In South Korea, LG Chem Vice President Kang Chang-beom announced (via a Q3 earnings conference call) that the battery maker fully expects Chevrolet to be able sell in excess of 30,000 Bolts in 2017.

LG Chem, as the battery supplier for the Bolt, has a vested interest in the success of the car. Previously, we had reported that “the supplier sources who need significant lead time to prepare for production say they are being told that General Motors expects to sell 25,000-30,000 Bolts per year once production is underway.” So, the 30,000-unit figure for 2017 is in line with previous expectations.

Basically, LG Chem is stating that it’s ready to produce packs for at least 30,000 Bolts next year and that Chevrolet has committed to this figure, so Bolt sales for 2017 should be in the ballpark of 30,000 then.

The 238-mile Bolt has a starting price of $37,495 and is currently being allocated to dealerships in Oregon and California. Orders are reportedly being placed now. A more widespread release is scheduled for early 2017.

Chevrolet Bolt Battery Pack

Chevrolet Bolt Battery Pack

Source: Automotive News

Categories: Chevrolet

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133 Comments on "LG Chem Expects Chevrolet Bolt Sales To Exceed 30,000 In 2017"

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Still >30K is low. Hugely disappointing forecast.

I don’t know if it’s correct to say “disappointing” when describing the *forecast*. You can say it’s a low forecast, but in order for disappointment, they would have to make a prediction of say 30k, but in reality only 20K ended up being delivered. That would be a disappointment since it was expected to be higher.

I’d rather keep expectations low until we see how the market actually responds. If you get your hopes up, you may end up being “disappointed”.

@kdawg
Think of the sales potential if they had put this superbly engineered power train into a decent body;)

Describe a “decent body”

Remember.. no land yachts

One that doesn’t have the wheelbase of a compact.

beep beep It’s the cutest little thing;)

Oh, you mean like in a Malibu or an Equinox…

So how would you describe sports cars that have that wheelbase?

Again, making the Bolt more like a land-yacht is not going to win me over.

I think the superbly engineered power train should go into superb Volt body. The VoltEV would make me trade in Volt#671

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671

A “decent body” is 36-24-36.

However, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Some guys, like America’s presidential debate sweetheart Ken Bone, prefer a bodies that are shaped like “beautiful human submarines.” I have a feeling that Ken Bone would describe the Chevy Bolt as very, very sexy. :p

http://nypost.com/2016/10/14/ken-bone-is-actually-kind-of-an-awful-guy/

We got to check out the Bolt at the Texas State Fair and it was perfect size for us. (We have no kids though.) There were lots of others checking out the car too, so we are not alone.

If the Bolt is a success then Chevy will likely make a larger car using this technology. After all, the Bolt length is only 3″ shy of the Chevy Trax and almost 20″ longer than the Spark EV.

Gen 1 EV in the Leaf sold 30K back in ’14. BEV market needs bigger volumes otherwise they will never cross over into the mainstream.

Gen 2 Bolt fixes range problem and should be aggressively marketed/sold, not some limp wrist attempt that it appears we are in for.

>50K forecast would be okay for ’17

Leaf “sold” a lot that year, to generous incentives in states like Georgia, and large amounts of leases. Those incentives have been reduced.

The Leaf is almost $8,000 cheaper also than the Bolt.

I hope they hit 30,000, but I doubt it.

ronald said:

“…the Leaf sold 30K back in โ€™14.”

You mean, it sold that much just in the USA. And about twice that worldwide.

If it was properly marketed, I’d expect the Bolt to sell considerably more than that. But GM is being very cautious about initial production, not making a right-hand-drive version at all, and planning to offer only very limited numbers to Europe (where it is badged the Ampera-e).

We’ll have to see how much, if any, GM ramps up production in future years. Nissan clearly was dedicated to building as many Leafs as the market would bear, even building two new auto assembly plants and two new battery factories to support production.

Will GM show the same dedication? As an EV advocate I will hope so, but realistically I don’t think GM has any intention of meeting demand for the Bolt. That would cut too much into into sales of their more profitable gasmobiles.

The most ANY EV has sold in a single year in the US was the Leaf in 2014 with 30k units, so for GM/LG to make projections of anything much over 30k would simply be foolish IMO.

30k units is probably the minimum LG/GM expect to sell. Be damn sure that LG will be able to pump out way more than 30k batteries in 2017 if need be.

@bro1999 the Tesla Model S alone is on pace to sell 30k this year. at more than twice the price of the Bolt.

Compare Tesla against comparably priced gas cars, and it’s whole lot better, even the logo. Compare Bolt, and it’s not much better against the likes of AWD Subaru WRX. Rather, it lags. And the Chevy image among general public hurt it, not help.

30K is about right guesstimate for Bolt. I have a feeling even that’s being optimistic.

Why the pessimism Sparky? I mean you are driving the BoltEVs little sister!

SparkEV made a statement that EV can blow away all cars of its post subsidy price range. Bolt isn’t so much. If Bolt was $22K post subsidy, it would be HUGE, and it could kill Prius and dominate just about all compact cars. I mean, why bother with pokey Corolla or Civic when you can have Bolt? But not at $30K, at least not without Tesla badge.

The price of the Spark EV was subsidized, just like nearly every other compliance car (the BMW i3 REx is the only exception I’m aware of).

Pretending otherwise isn’t helping your case, Sparky.

You seem to think SparkEV is made of solid gold for being such a great car. I don’t blame you for such delusion. It really is great EV.

But that doesn’t change the fact that it’s $16K post subsidy in CA or much cheaper on sale and negotiating. Some got it for as low as $12K. Fact is, there’s no car in price range that perform like it, not even at $20K.

Why would you compare it to a Subaru WRX? The Bolt isn’t the same size, same form factor, or targeted at the same demographic. More like a Toyota Matrix, or Nissan Leaf, or VW Golf etc. (I wouldn’t compare it to a Prius C, Yaris, Micra, etc etc either as those are all much smaller and econoboxes.)

Bolt is hatch of similar size and price as WRX, hence the comparison. There are others, such as VW GTI (not base Golf) and Bolt is ho-hum. I’m considering general buyers of $30K hatch, not only the EV buyers.

If you only look at EV of similar price range, there’s no question Bolt is whole lot better. But sales of those cars are roughly 30K/yr. If there’s no other EV, that would be good estimate, but with Tesla 3 on the horizon, I think even 30K is optimistic.

SparkEV said:

“…with Tesla 3 on the horizon, I think even 30K is optimistic.”

You think think the demand for the Bolt will be less than 1/10 that of the planned ~400k yearly production of the Model โ‰ก?

I think that’s far too pessimistic. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the international market for the Bolt is at least half of that of the Model โ‰ก. (And please note I did not say “only half”, I said “at least half”.)

Chevy is not Tesla. That “T” logo is partially responsible for such demand, not to mention just look at 3. It’s a damn fine looking car.

You think SparkEV is so expensive, so I doubt your judgment on Chevy. Unless they push (I mean PUSH HARD), under 30K is about what to expect. They’re not pushing, and it’s a Chevy that looks like a Chevy Cruze hatchback that cost only $21K. For EV crowd, it will sell, which is about 30K cars per year. But for wider audience, not so much.

The Tesla 3 demand probably comes from UBER like drivers who think they might get free supercharging for life. BoltEV lacks that potential.

Free Charging for life for “Commercial Use” ??? can that be right?

I guess you have not seen any of Bjorn Nyland videos where he delivers skiโ€™s and stuff in his Model S while taking advantage of the free charging.

NPNS! SBF!
Volt#671

Bolt EV will sell LOTS in California for the next couple years.

Reasons:

1. White HOV sticker, which does NOT deactivate ever, where green ones end in 2019.

2. Tesla 3 and Leaf with 200 mile range will not show up until 2018 or 2019, so no other real competition will exist.

3. Even when Tesla 3 and Leaf 200 show up, they will cost more than Bolt, because their Federal credits will have started expiring, and the Bolt will start to have discounts by then, due to being in production longer.

4. There are already over 100,000 Volt owners on the road, and since over 90% of them love their Volts, a huge percent of them will buy a Chevrolet Bolt over any other brand.

Driving a G1 Volt myself, both G2 Volt and Bolt are ugly. 30k cars are rarely this ugly.

I have a Gen 2 Volt. I don’t think it is ugly at all!

Would be surprised if LG could go higher than 50k Bolt packs a year til end 2018.

BTW – are the Opel batched Ampera-e’s part of the 30k?

Yes, forecasts are for no more than 3,000 to 5,000-ish to ultimately head out internationally.

At the top of insideevs.com there is yelow link to monthly sales summary.

For 2016 maybe Tesla S will do 30K in USA or maybe not (if Tesla decide to ship more cars abroad).

So 30K sold in USA would quite an acomplishment for new model.

On top of that its simply unlikely LG can provide more batteries then that. It’s not like LG sits on unused capacity that could satisfy hundreds of thousands of BEVs….

Panasonic can not do that and they are twice as big as LG…

That’s why Tesla+Panasonic Gigafactory is so important.

Just how much unused production capacity for li-ion batteries LG Chem has, is an interesting question. Jay Cole wrote awhile back that they do have some (maybe a lot of) unused capacity in certain countries. But my understanding is that the reason LG was able to offer that low, low “sweetheart deal” price of $145/kWh for battery cells, was at least partly due to favorable (to GM) balance of trade between S. Korea and the U.S. While LG Chem might well be able to provide a lot more battery cells, even without the two years’ lead time they would normally need for building and fine-tuning new factories, the average price for those cells would almost certainly increase substantially. And that would cut into GM’s profit margin for the car. So why would GM substantially increase production, if the only way they can do it is to cut the probably already razor-thin profit margin for the car? There might be marketing reasons why GM would do so, but I think it’s unlikely. And this ignores the fact that the Bolt’s drivetrain will be entirely built by LG Electronics’ brand new automotive division. Just how fast could a new, untried division ramp… Read more »

I think it’s safe to say that 140$ price tag was possible because LG got a lot of parts other for Bolt, and they will make a profit from all of them, and not just batteries.

As for the capacity build out.

That’s not how it’s calculated. You calculate return of investment.

Tesla could be profitable without gigafactory, if fact it already would be profitable for quite a while. But that would be bad business. With gigafactory and good return of investment, they will be bigger in longer run.

Same hold true for GM. But NOT LG.

LG without a car that prove good sales can not risk build out. So their (LG) strategy of spreading capacity over many smaller volume cars is good one. Will just take time to put sale figures big enough to justify build out.

GM will need a lot of be Luck to sell 30.000 Bolts at that Price. Especially when you can a way better looking, two & a Half times the car for less money from the competition.

I disagree. If necessary, they will offer incredible lease options to reach that 25 to 30k number.

I highly doubt that. Even if Chevy did offer a golden lease their horrible dealer network will kill such dreams of larger sales #’s. You’ll see !

If Tony Stark were the CEO of GM, I’m sure he could go out and promise that GM would sell 300k Bolts in the first year without having to worry about what will happen if they don’t.

However, unlike some (well, one) of its competitors, GM will be expected to meet the sales goals it sets. GM was aggressively optimistic about the Volt (a superior car in many regards, particularly for the U.S. market) and when they failed to meet those goals, GM took a hit. So the words of the day for GM are “restrained optimism.”

Correct but he is not.

ronald…my thoughts exactly I pro ported 100K on a recent survey..but 50K seems certain to me..

Is that 5 groups of cells in the pack? I thought it was 4 groups at 15kWh each for a total of 60kWh. Does each pack contain 15kWh, but only 12 kwh is usable, thus 5 x 12 = 60kWh usable?

Pack architecture:

Basic – 288 cells in 3P/96S configuration.

Each cell 3.75 Volt, approx. 55Ah

8 cell-group modules on the base tier
2 cell-group modules on the top tier. All modules connected in serial.

Each cell group – 3 cells in parallel, 3.75 volts @ 165 Ah each cell group

Each base tier module has 10 cell groups in serial = 37.5 volts @ 165 Ah each module

Each top tier module has 8 cell-groups in serial = 30 volts @ 165 Ah each module.

Total pack volts = 37.5 x 8 + 30 x 2 = 360 volts
Pack Ah = 165 Ah

Pack kWh = 360 x 165/1000 = 59.4 kWh.

Interesting that the base has 10 cells and the top has 8 cells. They look the same size in the drawing.

Not surprising. I will stick by my 22k, which was made a few months back. I don’t regret the light derision I cast on ridiculously high predictions. Let’s get real.

Don’t forget the sister car. I bet they will also sell many Ampera-E (GM’s Opel brand in Europe).

Europe alone could absorb 10-20k cars by 2017 imho.

Look at Renault ZOE and BMW i3 sales in Europe for a comparison.

I’ll hold off making my sales predictions for Europe until pricing is announced.

The European price is known by the Opel dealers that take the car in.
I have signed for mine and I know the price for my package. The Premier edition with all the extras.

Will you please let us know what price your dealer is selling the Ampera-e?

Right. Well maybe 5k-6k for the Ampera.

So… 27 to 28k? Sounds a lot like the 25 to 30k they plan to build. You aren’t being any more pessimistic than GM or LG.

ZOE sold over 20k units in 2015 in Europe:

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/01/20/renault-zoe-was-europes-best-selling-ev-last-year/

That was for the small battery option of course.

I don’t see why the new Ampera can’t reach tje same sales volume in Europe in 2017.

PS: Sorry, all of Renault was well over 20k, the ZOE was “only” 18+k units in 2015.

Still, that volume should be easily possible for the Opel Ampera-E.

Why has Tesla 350.000+ reservations for M3? Is it 10 times better/more desireable than the Bolt? If yes, why? Can’t be electric range – both should be very close.

GM is either massively underestimating Bolt demand or it is doing something very wrong…

GM is not a “sexy” company.
Tesla is.

Sex sells.
Simple as that.

Could use more lipstick ๐Ÿ˜‰ Or in car’s terms GM has to market it much better, demonstrate the benefits, butts in seats, charging, all the things they didn’t do with the Volt.

The “sex sells” mantra doesn’t seem to be making Tesla any money at the moment.

I’ll take the conservative looking chick and $$$ versus the sexy bimbo with a Gucci handbag addiction. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Hmm… I find your choice of analogies to be poor, but for the sake of continuity, why can’t I have a knockout AND money? There’s no need to make a choice like that, realistically. If the Model 3 ends up being even half as good as the Model S, it’ll be the best of all worlds (price, performance and desirability). The Bolt looks to be a spectacular addition to the new generation of EVs, but as stated in several other posts, Chevy isn’t appealing to many would be buyers in this category, so it’ll have to break through that barrier to be as successful as we, the good people that read these articles, want it to be.

GM might have done better to market the Volt and Bolt under the GM name, not Chevy.
They could have then had every division selling them, or spin it off as a separate EV brand.

You need to force every dealer to invest into expensive equipment…

They should have kept everything equal and sold it under the Cadillac brand…More than half of all EVs are sold in super image conscience CA, the Bolt EV rollout only includes CA and OR…Many state EVs have a “luxurious smooth and quiet ride” why not put a “luxurious” badge on the front?

bro1999 said:

“The ‘sex sells’ mantra doesnโ€™t seem to be making Tesla any money at the moment.”

The question was about demand, not how much or how little cash flow Tesla is experiencing during years of rapidly ramping up production.

It’s been said that the ~400,000 reservations for the Model โ‰ก is the greatest pre-release market demand ever shown for any product in history. That’s a pretty high demand.

Hype. When those 370k reservations came in there weren’t any alternatives available. Now there is. I think of those 370k reservations less than half of them will go through, which is a decent number anyway.

Yes.

Second that!

Because LG lies through their teeth, about their capacity.

It wont be 30k’s but 60k’s and then in 2018 it will be 100k’s. So Bolt will be able to steal those 160 000 reservations.

:facepalm:

Even if Bolt is competetive (and why not), LG can’t produce enough battery cells. It 2018-2020 they will also have way more customers.

They simply can not outproduce Panasonic they are 50% smaler after all, and even that smaller base will be split among dozens of models.

Bolt at best will be nuisance to Tesla sales by sheer unavailability.

Remember Tesla build factory TWICE as big as LG to satisfy 500 000 cars annually.

Where is LG investment? Where are LG partners pouring bilions of dolars into build out? Where are LG partners demonstrating huge sales outpacing LG capacity, to convince LG management to take big risk in doubling, tripling or quadrupling their capacity.

Because that’s the investement needed to out produce Tesla+Panasonic combo.

Quadrupling current LG.

Be careful with confusing Tesla’s intentions with facts. The Giga factory is currently only 1/5th of it’s finished size. Also how many cells is it currently producing? Cell producing doesn’t go from 0 – 100% overnight. Also LG produces it’s own cell making equipment. So if Tesla with limited funds can build the gigafactory in 2 years why would it take LG with orders and cash longer?

The first phase of the Tesla Gigafactory is expected to be more than double all of LG’s production capacity in 2017. That’s with only 1/5th online. The 2nd 1/5th will make it almost 4x the capacity in 2018.

LG’s supply also gets split to most of the other major manufacturers, including GM, Ford, FCA, VW, Renault, etc.

Tesla already have more then 1/5 cash secure for the gigagactory.

Other thing is that You insist on comparing Tesla and LG.

Its either Tesla vs GM/BMW/what not or Panasonic vs LG.

Panasonic+Tesla can not build gigafactory fast enough, and sudenly 50% smaller LG can do it faster?

That would be very good for us customers, but is unlikely from economical stand point.

Why is it so asymmetric around the midline? Is that not going to affect balance ? Will be interesting to feel out in a test drive. Can’t wait ๐Ÿ™‚

Its not, thats a cross section taken from the side, i.e. front is left, rear is right.
Battery is symmetrical from side to side, but not front to back.

Correct, the taller part at the rear is located under the rear seats, where there’s extra room. That’s where the fuel tank is usually placed on a regular ICE car, with some exceptions like Honda Fit/Jazz where the fuel tank is placed under the front seats instead so you can fold up the rear seats for a different way to make extra cargo room.

Honda Fit/Jazz illustration of how they moved the fuel tank from under the rear seats to under the front seats:

In the same manner there should be extra unused space under the front seats of a Bolt for extra battery cells, unless they have used this space for something else like charger and battery cooling system.

Is this expexted sales figures for Norway alone?

Looking at how thick the pack is, I’m glad GM went tall with the body design rather than compromise interior space just to have a lower roofline.

So much for the doubters who claimed LG chem couldn’t possibly make more than 30,000 battery packs for the 2017 Chevrolet Volt. I’m looking at you Poo-Poo. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Most people lose their love of toilet humor around age 8. Too bad about you, troll.

And stop putting words in my mouth.

LOL, maybe sven was channeling his inner Ken Bone from his post above?

So, we have contradictory info on the production target, from different suppliers for the Bolt. LG says more than 30k; another supplier said 25k-30k.

But this would seem to be a much more reliable source of info. This is an official statement from a LG exec; the previous report was, as I recall, a rumor from an undisclosed source.

Some unnamed supplier(s) said 25-30k. Which could have been me for all you know.

I’ll take LG’s statement of 30k+.

30,000 seems reasonable. Obviously, I’d like to see it go higher. But it seems lots of manufacturers have been caught off guard when it comes to their EV sales predictions.

Agree, if they do sell 30,000 units in 2017, especially with the gradual release in CARB states in the beginning, it would be pretty good. If they also manage to keep the Volt sales at 2,000 or more a month that would be even better.

30K would be good w/all the competition and potential competition out there. You got the upcoming M3, and Leaf 2.0, among others. A lot of people are going to hold on to their $ until all the cards drop.

Yeah, they are coming, but not in 2017.

Yeah, I’m thinking late 2018 in Michigan.. if i’m lucky for the Model 3. I was always planning to drive my Volt until then anyway, so not a big deal for me.

I’ve just heard others that are shopping now, and saying they won’t make a purchase until the get the info on the other 150+ mile BEVs.

They will easily sell 30k in Europe, another 30k in California+Oregon, yet another 30k in the rest of the USA+Canada and then 30k more in the rest of the world. Too bad they are not making any right hand drive cars, that’s another 30k sold.

They don’t have the battery supply for that many.

30k is about right for 2017, maybe getting towards 50k in 2018. Going beyond 50k is going to be tough for them. They would have had to invest into production well in advance.

They will just have to ask their employees to work harder, Musk style.

We’ll see sbout that.

LG & GM may want to sell them, but it is the dealers who will make or break this.

GM would’ve liked to have sold more Volt / ELR vehicles, but too many dealers took a pass on them or put them in the back of the service department, or like my local dealer wouldn’t even let me drive it! The Volt is successful, but it’s a great car and deserved better attention from the dealers. It could’ve been a better seller than it was / is.

Correct.

The small minded dealers are their real problem.

Amen. One local dealer refused even to order a Volt and the one that did said they couldn’t afford to keep any in stock because the carrying cost was too high. That with a showroom full of $80,0000 Corvettes!

Dealers need to make some fixed sum investment with GM to have equipment and training to be able to sell & service Volt (or Bolt now). It certainly doesn’t pay off if they have to do it for one client. Just go to other dealer that has it in stock, there are plenty of them. Check autotrader or whatever car sale site.

My order is in. Deposit down. I’m ready. All Electric All in! Super excited! Stongly considered the Volt … buying the Bolt!

What state are you in, and what is your projected delivery date?

Agree with others here that LG is making a wise investment.

Unless the economy collapses world wide, and people in general can’t afford anything, I’d think 25,000 in the states and 5000 internationally is a pretty safe bet for the first year.

The key here is the low overall price of the vehicle. Its a nice car in its own right, but the fact that it is SO CHEAP will make many people decide that this is the car for them.

Anybody who’s been following this space for a few years will remember how the Leaf and Volt were called failures for not having met their overly optimistic sales targets. Maybe that has something to do with it? “Bolt sales exceed expectations” sure sounds a lot better than “Bolt sales fall short of expectations” – regardless of whether the EV enthusiast community thinks those expectations are ambitious or not.

You’re comparing apples and oranges. The Volt was (and is) demand constrained; the Leaf was production constrained. The Leaf took a severe hit to its production in the first couple of years, from the tsunami which hit Japan in 2011, greatly reducing availability of parts from factories in Japan, especially battery cells.

And kudos to Nissan for investing the money to build new auto assembly plants and new battery plants, in Tennessee and the UK, so that it could finally ramp up Leaf production to meet worldwide demand.

Overproduction in auto industry is much worse than underproduction. In case of underproduction you just loose potential profit. In case of overproduction you loose more, all the capital invested for unused production capacity.

As far as I heard, GM got burned with Volt and obviously doesn’t want to repeat past mistake. Production will go up with demand (if any), there is no urgency to push it for few months sooner or later.

A nice improvement built volume over the ~6,000 Chevy Spark EVs delivered to date in the U.S.

The big unknown is the shape of S-curve as Chevy ramps up Bolt volume. Likely only 25-30% of first years volume will be delivered in first six months.

Why don’t know the incentives yet offered but remember the Spark could be had ridiculously cheap with many reporting they bought it as a second car…They also offered when leasing unlimited miles for another $45/mo, something GM rarely ever offers…It’s simply not apples to apples…

You guys need to get outside the EV blog-o-sphere. Toyota will be lucky to sell 150K Priuses this year across four models, which would be a record year for the entire EV industry. So 30K sales of a single model of electric car, which (other than Tesla’s snobby, street racer, tech millionaire niche) have elicited no interest at all from the general public so far, would be very impressive.

Of course Prius will have hard year.

up to 400K Model 3 reservations did not came from first time buyers.

๐Ÿ˜‰

Tesla victory is somebody else fail.

A significant percentage of Prius owners bought them to save money on gas, not because they gave a hoot about the planet. Those folks dumped them when gas prices collapsed. Many also care about the planet, but are pragmatic and have a budget for transportation. There are a few who will pay extra to make a philosophical point, or who are really enamored of the technology, but not enough to build an industry on. I believe it will be governments, at all levels, pushed by a growing pile of evidence that will force people into EVs.

Why would anyone concerned with economics dump perfectly good car because new car they would buy from scratch will have worse economy? No matter for what anyone dumped Prius it’s either even more electrified (and then Your argument if false) or have worse fuel economy and cost’s more compared to already owned Prius (which contradict Your earlier statement that Prius was bought for being cheap to maintain). I agree that new customers preference changed from sedans to SUVs, but NOT from electrified cars to ICE’s. Electric power trains are better in every regard to ICE cars. Silent, vibration less, pollution less, maintenance free, greater torque per $, similar hp per $. What’s not to like in electric power train? ICE feel like downgrade after driving one. Now. There are exceptions like Prius. But upgrade from Prius is Leaf. Not small ICE. Hence NEVER faltering sales in EU despite nosediving oil prices. They had electrified SUVs. Now that SUVs are in USA sales do register increas, don’t they? Prius sales will falter, not because customer will switch to Priuses “but with ICE please!”, but because they will wont better electric cars “Model 3 please” or SUVs “F150 please”. Sadly Outlander is… Read more »

Thank you for putting a dose of reality into Bolt expected sales. 30K is a HUGE number if you go by today’s EV sales. Given that GM is not pushing hard on Bolt, we won’t see much sale outside of “EV blogosphere”.

As for Tesla victory and someone’s fail, that’s only due to someone’s inability to make better cars, not due to Tesla victory. As some like to say, it’s not zero sum game, but baking more pies to expand the market.

GM will sell as many Bolts as LG Chem can crank out batteries for, in 2017. Among the Uber/ Lyft rideshare Bolt uptake, and 2014/15 Leaf Lease returns/ defections, you have the Volt faithful families, needing a second car, and jumping on board the Bolt Bandwagon as well. The only wild card, at the end of 2017 (12 months away ), is the Tesla Model 3 Osborne effect. Will the Tesla Model 3 2018 availability, after the 1/4 Miliion+ orders are fulfilled, trim down Bolt sales when they are both available for 2018 delivery?

The only other wild card, will be the Leaf 2.0 coming in under the radar. Nissan has yet to play that 200+ mi. range hand. The 2017 Bolt sales should end up like the Leaf 2014 (30,200) sales numbers here in the US. Possibly an additional 10-20%, due to the pent up demand for the under $40k and over 200mi. range, newly established EV segment.

Osborne effect its about company A management, admitting that their product is outdated.

So stop using this term outside its definition.

Product release slipping further into future could be called Musk effect though ๐Ÿ˜‰

Good on the “Musk Effect”! Apologies to Osborne computers, for the definition mix-up!

“…the Tesla Model 3 Osborne effect.”

What is it with so many people posting to InsideEVs using the term “Osborne effect” far outside its actual meaning?

The Osborne effect refers only to a company unintentionally sabotaging its own sales, by promoting/advertising a future product as better than its current product(s). The Osborne effect does not, ever, refer to competition from another company.

If you mean “competition”, then say competition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect

The Prius Prime is fairly compelling; GM’s #1 conquest buyer for the Volt has been the Prius…Now when it comes time for them to buy a new vehicle they may stay in the Toyota family, in Cali, even if you never plug in, the Prime is cheaper than the regular Prius and also gains you a green HOV sticker…

The sales side of GM is the problem, not what they have for sale.

Super hard teaching the old Dogs all these new tricks.

Even Nissan is stifled by the old school way of selling cars.

Osbourne Effect? WTH?

2 words – supply constrained.

That will be the story for the next 12 months wrt the bolt. The only thing that will change that will be if the leaf 2.0 has a similar spec but is cheaper or better marketed.

IMO the bolt is GM’s get out of jail card. It keeps them in the game and if ev”s start to eat into their normal market it allows for a quick transition.

Sales will all come down to oil prices…Lots of political turmoil in the world which affects oil prices…We have a new president coming with differing energy policies, we have Yemen Conflict along with the Saudis, still have Syria, Russia warning us not to interfere with Syria, China warning U.S. not to install a North Korea missile defense system in South Korea and the Philippines abandoning the U.S. to side with Russia and China so it can continue committing genocide…

And don’t forget US where we lock up more of our population in prisons than elsewhere, especially blacks who are locked up at over twice the population representation.

Black people commit more crimes, go figure.

Blacks are more likely to get locked up than whites for similar crimes. But even if not, look at the type of crimes they get locked up for. I mean, selling loose cigarettes in street corner (eg. Eric Garner)? People in other countries would be laughing at such nonsense if it’s not so tragic.

BULLS***! Black peoples disparate treatment by the courts and law enforcement, and their overt representation in our prisons is well documented. It’s just the same old systematic racism one saw played out in the older society, modernized. Centuries of racial and economic isolation WILL take its toll, not just on those being isolated, but eventually on the society as a whole.

Have you ever listened to hip hop and rap music?
Its not exactly peace and love…
A lot of it glorifies murder and pimps…

Sales will be driven by government regulations, which affect acquisition price, far more than oil prices, which are deferred expenses.

Yes. And if conflict/scarcity drives oil prices, rather than another economic bubble/demand, nobody will be buying cars.

I believe Gov’t regs force automakers to create EVs, sales are a different story…The only EV sales success has been Tesla which is leading full size luxury sales over ICE…Also the TM3…The Bolt is still expected to only sell 25K-30K which includes 5K worldwide…

Now if gas prices goes up to say $4/gal nationwide which basically means $5/gal in Cali, EVs/PHEVs sales will doubles…

Yes. In the US it will be a struggle for sure. Most drive SUV’s and pickups, and will keep them on the road until governments force them to switch. I suspect the whole system will crash before then.

They may sell 20K with what I expect as little to no advertisement like they did the Volt.

30K if they aggressively advertise.

35K if the stealerships don’t markup. But we all know that won’t happen.

Well the announcement from Keyes was that there would be discounts off MSRP. And that’s for the initial allocation. Between the federal tax rebate and ZEV credits, expect some good to great lease deals in CARB states.

Anither words LG expects these #’s or Chevy will pay more for thier batteries.

GM will be lucky to sell 20K of them in 2017 in the US (so maybe 30K world wide is possible).

Of course, if GM doesn’t, then everyone on inside EV will find ways to blame it on lack of GM TV ads or lack of dealer effort.

If GM does, then everyone will blame GM for not making more.

Either way, people here will always find fault with GM on EVs. That is my solid predication that you can take it to the bank.

Over 30k in it’s first year…nice. Hope consumers like it enough to make the purchase.

Myself….waiting for the Model E.

Looking at the battery pack image, it looks like the pack was made for a larger car, and they stacked the last battery module and stuffed it into this sub-compact platform.

With each battery module offering about 50 EPA miles, adding one more module for a larger car(Malibu/Equinox) could offer about 300 miles EPA.

“With each battery module offering about 50 EPA miles, adding one more module for a larger car(Malibu/Equinox) could offer about 300 miles EPA.”

Hmmm… No.

Wouldn’t adding another module make the car heavier on an already larger and heavier car (Malibu)? That reduced efficiency would make the 238 miles EPA cycle even worse on miles/kWh scale.

Even with improved aero of a larger car, the FA will be larger and weight will go up which both impacts the EPA range (especially since the EPA range favors lower speed). Even with 1 more module (~72kWh), it will be lucky to get 260 miles of range (which is exactly Tesla Model S ish). If Model S 75kWh can only get 265 miles of range, no way a ~72kWh Malibu EV would get 300 miles in EPA range. (unless you mean special ideal condition range).

BTW, Malibu has 102.9 cuft of interior passenger volume or 8.9 cuft larger than the Model S.

Selling 30K would be an outstanding achievement–hope they nail it.

I think the thing to watch is how the car does once they move out of the easy markets of CA and OR. I have to wonder how much effort a salesperson is going to put into getting someone into a Bolt when its probably faster and easier to get them into something like a Cruz. If someone walks into a dealership with their mind already set on a Bolt, then fine, no problem, but if someone is cross-shopping models in a segment, I don’t know… unless there are some really sweet incentives on the back-end for the dealership.

I bet they easily pass the 30k next year. A lot of pent up demand for this type vehicle.

Has anyone asked the Dealers what they want? Do you think they will push Bolt if it affects their bottom line negatively.. I heard of brand new cars being crushed because of over production, rather then sell them with a discount.

Current lg production capacity across the globe is for about 280000 battery packs across 4 factories.

The bolt has to fit into this until european factory comes on line in 2018.

I doubt gm are going to be outbidding luxury car makers for this capacity.

I don’t claim to have a crystal ball, so predicting sales numbers for the Bolt is iffy at best. However, it seems that GM has been heavily pushing lots of video “commercials” with management extolling the virtues of the Bolt, a whole line of spots answering questions about the car. There have been quite a few postings about the 238 mile range and the ride of the car itself(Monterey trip along PCH). I just get the impression that ‘this time’ GM wants this car to succeed. Since it is obvious that GM has a 1 year head start on the M3, I suspect GM wants to take advantage of its publicity and all the hoopla and if sales are slow, they will incentivize this car to get sales going in the right direction. I think the biggest hindrance to widespread sales is the cost of the car. $30,000 for a very nicely equipped small BEV may be a great price, but it is a lot for working class people to spend on what many will see as a “small car”. The initial target market(CA)may be a bit deceptive as there are quite a few eager buyers there. Besides the weather,… Read more »

Ship all 30K of them to Europe. They will sell all right.