June 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales: What To Expect?

blue Tesla Model 3 front

JUL 2 2018 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 39

June 2018 plug-in electric car sales stand to break all records.

June will mark the 33rd month of consecutive year-over-year monthly sales gains for plug-in vehicles.

It has been an interesting year for electric vehicle sales with a January that was a bit disheartening, the longest reporting delay ever for February, and a March that rose to the top sales month of all time for the segment. April landed in the five-spot for all-time EV sales, but it was short-lived, as May arrived with a vengeance. May not only knocked April out of the top five, but actually snagged the four spot. If the trends continue, we should continue to see the final month of each quarter claiming the new lead spot on our all-time list, and June will likely prove this true.

We have now put the second quarter of 2018 behind us, and what an amazing quarter it’s already proving to be. Tesla caught us off guard by releasing its Q2 report in the wee hours of Monday morning, July 2, 2018. Taking this into account, along with the rest of our research, we estimate at least 27,000 plug-in cars were sold in June. However, hitting 30,000 isn’t impossible. Just clearing the 27,000-mark will launch June 2018 EV sales to the top month of all time, historically.

Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):

  1. March 2018 – 26,373
  2. December 2017 – 26,107
  3. December 2016 – 24,785
  4. May 2018 – 24,560
  5. September 2017 – 21,242

While 2017 plug-in sales fell just shy of the 200,000 mark, it was still an amazing year for the segment. Hitting that mark for 2018 will happen well before the end of the year, especially since our chart has already eclipsed 100k deliveries and the coming months will be even better. However, there are several variables involved in determining where we might be by the end of this year. Nonetheless, sales exceeding 300,000 copies for the segment are expected.

Check Out: Contributor Josh Bryant’s 2018 yearly sales predictions here

While we don’t have our Tesla U.S. delivery splits 100-percent sorted, our estimations for the month, the quarter, and the year are almost spot-on with Tesla’s report. Additionally, our total Model 3 delivery number is only off by 9 units from the automaker’s published numbers. We’ll have more information on that in the coming days, as well as updated information about Model S and Model X sales and Tesla’s 200k U.S. delivery status.

As usual, we expect most vehicles to sell better in the last month of the quarter than in the previous two months. However, although we are confident with our estimates, we’ve been in the dark about GM’s actual deliveries over the past few months. Meanwhile, we do understand that Bolt sales have been down for a handful of reasons during which time we believe Volt sales have improved. Nonetheless, we don’t expect to see huge numbers from GM for June.

Nissan may be hard-pressed to beat May’s LEAF sales, being that the number proved the highest deliveries the car has seen since December of 2016. We can only hope that Nissan LEAF sales continue to improve or at least remain consistent around the 1,500-mark.

As far as the Toyota Prius Prime is concerned, it’s anticipated that sales will be outstanding. Thus far, Prime sales continue to improve, and the end-of-quarter push has been solid. In May, Toyota sold more Prime plug-ins in the U.S. than it did to end Q1. We’re excited to learn what June brings. Another record-breaker for the Prime is expected.

Like the LEAF, the Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid made great strides in May. We would like to report that June will be even better, but based on our estimates, that may not be the case. We hope that Honda can keep inventory up and stay on top of demand so that Clarity sales continue to improve. Hopefully, June’s numbers prove our research wrong.

Stay tuned during the coming days as we put the numbers to all the dialogue. In parting, we’ll leave you with some questions to ponder. If you have ideas for questions entering June, throw them in the comment section below and we’ll make an attempt to work them in.

Questions entering June:

  1. Did Tesla sell its 200,000th vehicle in the U.S. during the month of June?
  2. Will Tesla Model 3 U.S. sales continue to soar above all others, despite the tax credit situation and deliveries to Canada?
  3. Will June’s U.S.-only Model 3 deliveries surpass that of May?
  4. Did Tesla maintain strong U.S. delivery numbers for the Model S and Model X, regardless of the Model 3 ramp up and approaching tax credit sunset?
  5. How will Chevrolet Bolt EV and Volt sales turn out for the end of the quarter as GM finally reveals sales data?
  6. Can the 2018 Nissan LEAF end the quarter on a strong note even after the huge sales spike in May?
  7. The Toyota Prius Prime … how high can sales rise?
  8. Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid deliveries have been on an upward trend and soared in May. Did sales reach even higher in June?

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39 Comments on "June 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales: What To Expect?"

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1. Yes
4. Yes

“We are expecting 2400 Model X and 2900 Model S made their way to U.S. buyers.”

And also 6,050 Model 3 deliveries to US customers in June 2018.

The 200,000th Tesla delivery in the US happened in June 2018.

Too bad, but that’s the way it is.

hehe

I think you are right on the money with the June numbers.

We’re at the cusp! In July a single automaker might deliver enough cars to make it onto the “top month for us EV sales” chart!?

A single automaker won’t pull 27,000. Keep in mind that many of those Model S and X deliveries went overseas. But still, it’s going to be a great month.

Not with that attitude! J/k! :p

No, I meant to just make it to the list, and since the #4 spot will become #5 next month, Tesla “only” needs to deliver 24,451 (S/X/3) to make it on the chart!

“Additionally, our total Model 3 delivery number is only off by 7 units from the automaker’s published numbers.”

What, no it isn’t. It’s been confirmed that you were off by over a thousand in April which means you were off by another thousand in June to compensate? On top of that, Tesla didn’t report US deliveries so how can you be off by 7 on a number that hasn’t been reported? I’m honestly confused as to what’s going on here.

For the Model 3, every delivery has been in the U.S. thus far, until this month when some went to Canada. So, we’ve been able to check the numbers at each quarter. The grand total number of Tesla Model 3s sold to this day was reported by Tesla as 9 units different from our grand total. My math was off by 2 (since I typed 7).

Tesla numbers – 28,386
Our numbers – 28,377 in the chart thus far (1,772 for 2017 + 18,305 for 2018 = 20,077). This month we published the 200k piece showing estimates of 6,050 for June in the U.S. and 2,250 in Canada. Deliveries in Canada won’t show in our chart, but we still estimated it to show the big picture.

So, yes, we were within fractions. There has been no confirmation of being off in April by thousands. The only confirmed numbers Tesla gives is at the end of each quarter.

The Plug-In sales card of Inside EV’s is the best there is.

We appreciate it very much. And we understand that there is lots of work to be done before any numbers can be published.

Tesla certainly confirmed their market share in April and the number of cars sold can easily deduced from that and Wade agreed. You were off by at least a thousand.

What you just said is that your estimate for Q2 is close to Tesla’s numbers minus your estimate for Canada deliveries. That’s different than saying that you were only 7 vehicles off Tesla’s published numbers since you have no idea if your Canada numbers are off by 10 or 100 or 300 in either direction.

I know that your model has worked in the past and it’s your brand. This isn’t a personal attack. It just feels like you’re overselling it a little and might have a little bit of a blind spot to and corrections that need to be made. I’m happy to provide a source for April deliveries and how you can confirm them.

You’re confused about what I’m saying. I never said there was no month that was off. I just said Tesla never confirmed the numbers. I’m saying on the quarter our total numbers are off by 15. On the whole, for every single Model 3 delivered anywhere thus far, our numbers are off by 9.

Sales and delivery says and the weeks preceding it are monstrous. It’s much more difficult when people argue in comments and we have to repeatedly explain ourselves.

Praise for being within mere pebbles from these published numbers and a thank you for our hard work would be much better from the community. It’s extremely difficult to keep rehashing everything in the comments when we are working numbers.

What I’m trying to say is that it’s hard to text all this. We are talking about 2 different things. Whether or not our Canada numbers are exact is irrelevant to the fact that the TOTAL for the quarter and TOTAL for all time are almost exact. The only thing we don’t know for sure is the precise number for Canada. But that’s not what I was talking about. Lost in translation and silly text messages here, sorry.

Okay, good job. You did well. You did nail the Q2 Model 3 total and that’s commendable.

Month to month probably doesn’t matter much in the long run.

I wasn’t trying to get a compliment. That came off wrong, too. Haha. I just don’t know any other way to explain it in comments and when we’re super busy we makes mistakes in the comments and in the sales reporting, but we want to be here for the readership as well. We are trying the very best we possibly can. We were just happy that we didn’t have to report that our TOTAL numbers were off by some ridiculous amount and lose all credibility. It was a happy moment for Wade and I to receive some confirmation. We will keep you posted as we learn more. Thank you.

Month to month is crazy tough, but we do our best. Thanks, Dante. I just felt like we were saying the same thing with different words and my hasty words were getting misconstrued with my inability to communicate my point the right way here in commments. We appreciate your support.

It’s my fault too. I didn’t get that you were saying that the Q2 totals match the published number and now that I get it, I’m honestly super impressed. Like that’s an unreasonably close estimate and it isn’t your first. Can’t wait to see what happens in Q3.

+1

Hey Dante, we were likely a bit short in April (not 1000 off though.) since first week of Q2 production was higher than expected and Tesla sent less vehicles to Canada in May than we hoped (maybe 200-300 max at the very end of the month) and it is possible our US numbers are slightly above actual in June and July. It was difficult to gauge canadian deliveries because we had literally no info to go on back in April. That wasn’t the case for June thankfully! 🙂

Still we used the same estimation technique for April as May and June. Unfortunately Tesla has yet to provide us exact monthly breakdowns… but ultimately for the quarter everything lined up perfectly. The same thing with Q1, our estimates were similarly accurate.

Estimates are never exact obviously. But we are confident in the overall breakdown between US and Canadian deliveries in June… even if it may be off ever so slightly. 🙂

You guys do a great job…. Always closer then me…

Jean-Francois Morissette

456 Model 3 delivered in May in Canada (ref Matthew Klippenstein’spreadsheet)

In addition, Tesla’s statement says it delivered 18,440 total Model 3s in Q2. Our chart shows 3875 + 6,250. Then add our June estimate of 6,050 and the estimated Canadian deliveries of 2,250.

Our total for Q2 is 18,425. So, for the quarter as a whole, we are within 15 units. We were extremely excited to be within 9 overall and 15 on the quarter!!!!

“It’s been confirmed that you were off by over a thousand in April which means you were off by another thousand in June to compensate?”

Say what? Where did you read that nonsense? Some Tesla bashing post on Seeking FUDsters Alpha?
🙄

The sour grapes remarks on SA about InsideEVs’ estimates of Tesla deliveries have been quite noticeable, and quite embarrassing for SA. I guess some analysts are angry about not being able to make money sell their own estimates in privately distributed letters because IEVs’ more accurate estimates are published publicly online, where anyone can see them!

InsideEVs deserves a great deal of credit for publishing far more accurate estimates of Tesla deliveries/sales than any other source. IEVs’ staff spends a lot of time and effort to gauge Tesla’s deliveries/sales, and it shows! Their estimates have never been off by more than 200 in any month, and are usually significantly more accurate than that.

Thank you, InsideEVs!

Most things I have read on “Seeking FUDsters Alpha” quote Insideevs numbers exactly, because everyone knows they are the best. GCR estimates are on drugs, even I can tell they are not close.

This is a bit much. You do realize I think Tesla sold more cars in April than estimated here right?

Will efforts to extend the Fed. tax credit succeed?

I say no, but think Steven knows, and he is just torturing us to wait for the answer.

The only “efforts” involved were efforts by those who really, really wanted Tesla to delay passing the 200,000 milestone; efforts in trying to see evidence that wasn’t there. In other words, wishful thinking.

Tesla made no such effort. If it had, then it would have been selling Model 3’s in Europe.

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” — Sherlock Holmes

You’ll very quickly be proven wrong.

Model 3 is not certified for Europe yet, I think they need a ton of software improvements before that happens. It is only USA and Canada for now…

There were no tactics by Tesla to delay the 200,000th delivery till July 2018.

Thats what I expect… Fremont has no capacity for new car storage after losing the lease on the property to the North of the Fremont Factory, so they have rented lots to store cars waiting for shipment… There was no huge effort to dodge the tax man.

Tesla could certainly have rented enough empty lots to store a few thousand Model 3’s if they really wanted to. That wasn’t the issue. The issue was Tesla making as much money for the quarter as it could.

Tesla was pulling out all the stops to maximize production and sales; putting a partial assembly line under a tent was a very strong signal indeed that Tesla was doing the very opposite of delaying sales!

June 2018 USA

Bolt 1700
Leaf 2500
Prime Who the heck knows
Model 3 4200-5000 Assuming 14K-15K for Q2 USA
Model S 2000
Model X 2500

I would be surprised to see that high a number for the Bolt. My local dealer scrounged up only 2 cars from out-of-state dealers. Nothing directly from GM, though you could order a 2019.

Local inventory stinks. Same with the Volt.

Now its time to talk about the EV leadership.
Nissan Leaf is the most sold EV at 320,000 units while Renault/Nissan alliance has 540,000 EVs to its tally.

Tesla hit the 300,000 mark (Model S/X/3 combined) in 2018-Q1 and with this 40,000 + sales in 2018-Q2, their tally should be at 340,000 +.

How about those players; BYD, BAIC, BMW.

In 2012, 30 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) was discovered.
That fell to
16 BOE in 2013
15 BOE in 2014
15 BOE in 2015
8 BOE in 2016
6.7 BOE in 2017

All this shows that sooner the oil prices will continue to increase. Better get ready to buy some form of electric/plugin/hybrid. Even Fuecel is an option.

http://peakoil.com/geology/the-energy-cliff-approaches-world-oil-and-gas-discoveries-continue-to-decline

So far this year, there is no news of any price reduction of an EV/Plugin.
The only good news is the rising output of Model-3. Does any one foresee any automaker lowering the price on their EVs.

Tesla dropped the price of the Performance 3 by about 8 grand. Dual motor by one thousand.

The sales card seems to have stalled. When will the final numbers come in?